Attn Justin and other SBR $harps, I need your opinion.

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Cheme82
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-03-08
    • 7823

    #141
    Talking about the whole hostile, unfriendly, and unhelpful place. At the beginning I used to think that it was just the fact that the average poster here is smarter and consequently, has a bigger ego than people from players talk. But as I learned more, I realized that most winning sports bettors are greedy and selfish.

    You know how they say, "The nicer the man, the worse the card player." I believe that is true for any gambler, which means I'll probably never be a great gambler. It's very hard for me to understand how people are able to be a member of a forum and at the same time be unwilling to provide any help to a fellow gambler. I believe it is a responsibility of a good citizen to try to educate everyone in society so that we can move forward as a group, not only as individuals. But then again most of you are sick fuks.

    A lot of people take the approach of why should they give away their knowledge when they acquired their knowledge themselves. I'm sorry but all those classes that you took were taught by people that helped you learn. Even if you are "self taught", you read books, articles, journals, that were written by someone who shared their knowledge with you, so when you take the "Nobody game me anything, why should I?" approach, not only are you being selfish, you are also lying.

    Now to cover both sides of the story, I also have to mention what happened to me last year. I have always posted my plays in the subforums. I keep a season long thread where I post my plays, and track my W-L and units. I did some really stupid shit when I started (JM chase system), but I have always tried to look a little further. More importantly, I have always listened to anyone that's nice enough to teach me something. So I got better and realized that was dumb, but I also realized that not all of it was dumb. So I started playing only the side of it that was +EV, sure enough the units started piling on and people started noticing the thread. Bunch of followers started playing and making money. Some people asked how I was coming up with the plays and of course I explained in detail. Long story short, the books caught on and the edge was gone.

    Around that same time the Costa Rica Bash was taking place. There was a poster who I know for a fact made a killing on those plays who attended the event. In the whole weekend I was there he didn't even introduce himself. If it had been me who had made all that money thanks to him I would have taken the dude on an epic party down in CR on my dime. It's called gratitude, but apparently not all parents teach that to their children. Shit, even a hand shake "My name is -----" would have sufficed. I wasn't looking for a "comission", different posters here have offered me $ for my plays, an I have never taken a cent from anyone. It's just that it is disheartening to go through an experience like that. Not so much for the money making opportunity that dried up (I'm not greedy), but because of the attitude of some people.

    So I understand why most of the sharp people here keep their knowledge to themselves. I just can't see myself doing the same thing. A big part of my satisfaction when I make money is knowing other people tailed.
    So for those of you that don't share anything at the think tank, you are either a parasite looking for someone to share while you contribute nothing, or you are here to screw people up on purpose. In both cases you are fuked up in my book.

    P.S. Not all sharp people are selfish and condescending. And not all followers are ungrateful. Some of you guys act like human beings, please don't take offense. This message was directed to the sociopaths.
    Comment
    • yak merchant
      SBR High Roller
      • 11-04-10
      • 109

      #142
      Originally posted by hutennis
      Never said all people are stupid. But stupid people have a very little chance. That's correct.



      It is not that big of a news really. It is very well established that backward - looking only models in speculative fields don't work that well.
      It seems that sport betting world is the last place to be in a dark about it. I wonder why.



      You don't seem to pay attention to words you chose. Very, very superficial approach.
      "Affect" and "predict" is not the same thing.



      IF you already have "a model that generates 3 picks a day, and makes money consistently for 20 years in a row" you have to do nothing.
      except maybe laughing all the way to the bank. We would have to take your word for it, congratulate you and wish you all the best in a future. I was not even talking about something that has such a fabulous record, albeit only in your words.
      Again "if I say so, you must believe me" attitude is unique for sport betting forums world only. It would be very hard laughed at any where else.

      Otherwise. some form of peer review is essential if you are serious about being right.



      Sorry, this passage is a bit to deep. But, I guess, if you find dolphin analogy stupid no wonder you consider what ever is above smart.

      Overall, it becomes painfully apparent that great jurist Oliver Holmes was so right when he said:
      "Trying to educate a bigot (a person who is obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices) is like shining light into the pupil of an eye - it constricts."
      Listen I'm not going to burn cycles arguing with you. You are right almost 100% time when you post. You clearly have 100 times the training I have in math/stat and are correct in that 99.8% of all people have no understanding of how markets work. However when you preach about ad hominem fallcies and then decide that posting a quote calling me a bigot (which comes from the greatest traitorous euginicist liberal d-bag bigot the world has ever known) is the proper way to dispel my argument that it is "possible" to beat a sports betting market using predictions made from historical data I see the irony is lost on you. You can say I have "prejudices" and you are correct, but I'm not the one posting absolutes when it comes to sports betting.

      Originally posted by hutennis
      Anything backward looking is a mirage.."
      Originally posted by hutennis
      building models based on historical data trying to predict future results
      is nothing more but a stupid waste of time and should be done only if you have no better things to do."
      Originally posted by hutennis
      "Fading yours or someone else's "model" is losing proposition no matter what."
      Originally posted by hutennis
      "The problem is that you can't buy low and sell high. It is impossible."
      I agree with you most people have little chance, backward looking models in speculative fields don't work "well", but you can't seem to come to grips with it has been done before and it will be done again. Just because the guy making a living at it doesn't post a peer reviewed journal article on how he does it doesn't mean it doesn't happen. Just because you haven't seen a white buffalo doesn't mean they don't exist. I don't know if your position is a result of you and your really smart friends having tried and failed and now you are out to prove to the world that because you couldn't do it and you have a 200 IQ then it must be impossible, but I find it funny that someone trained in statistics and markets refuses to admit the existence of a data point way out on the fat tail.
      Comment
      • VLR100
        SBR High Roller
        • 01-10-10
        • 217

        #143
        LOL at getting a profitable betting strategy peer reviewed. Way to lose your edge bro.

        @Cheme, you're right. Winning gamblers will not give away truly valuable information for the same reason that it would be foolish to have a winning strategy peer reviewed. Then everyone else gets on it and books adjust, see the thread about Wong teasers on the first page of the think tank for example. However, you won't find the finished article in here, but there are a lot of threads in here which give you the basic analytical tools to tackle sports betting. You just have to do the hard work yourself.
        Comment
        • Duff85
          SBR MVP
          • 06-15-10
          • 2920

          #144
          Originally posted by VLR100
          LOL at getting a profitable betting strategy peer reviewed. Way to lose your edge bro.

          @Cheme, you're right. Winning gamblers will not give away truly valuable information for the same reason that it would be foolish to have a winning strategy peer reviewed. Then everyone else gets on it and books adjust, see the thread about Wong teasers on the first page of the think tank for example. However, you won't find the finished article in here, but there are a lot of threads in here which give you the basic analytical tools to tackle sports betting. You just have to do the hard work yourself.
          I became +EV reading threads between here and 2+2. Just gotta read a lot and filter all the bs. Most of all try stuff.
          Comment
          • Cheme82
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 09-03-08
            • 7823

            #145
            Originally posted by Duff85
            I became +EV reading threads between here and 2+2. Just gotta read a lot and filter all the bs. Most of all try stuff.
            Ditto, although I've never been to 2+2.
            Comment
            • cyberbabble
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 08-30-10
              • 772

              #146
              I have had some success with NFL player props for the last two years. These were all individual player performance type props as opposed to team props. Things like yards gained by running back, receptions by wide receiver or tight end, etc.

              I have noticed that the unders were much better bets than the overs. Win/lose percentage and ROI were much higher on the unders.

              This is in keeping with the conventional wisdom that most people bet the over on these props and that the bookie posts a number biased against the over side of the prop to take advantage of the too optimistic over side bettors. This makes the under the value side of the bet in most cases.

              Have you (or anyone) noticed this sort of result in prop betting?
              Comment
              • Justin7
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 07-31-06
                • 8577

                #147
                Cyberbabble,

                I've seen this a lot as well. If a prop maker uses a mean, instead of median result, you often see bad numbers.
                Last edited by Justin7; 07-01-12, 11:57 PM. Reason: typo
                Comment
                • Inkwell77
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-03-11
                  • 3227

                  #148
                  I rarely here about or see a sharp betting an over on any player or season win prop. I'm sure it happens but not very often. Track player props for a while and this stuff becomes apparent. The question is always wheb will over betting on these become worthwhile
                  Comment
                  • muffins
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 03-03-12
                    • 145

                    #149
                    It makes little sense to refer to an efficient market when it is not one market, there are thousands of books and arbitrage exists specifically because it is not an efficient market.

                    As to historical data being of no use in profitable betting this seems to ignore the fact that odds compilers use this data to set the initial market price, therefore are operating under this same "fallacy" opening up opportunities for punters to exploit.
                    Comment
                    SBR Contests
                    Collapse
                    Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                    Collapse
                    Working...