Say you have a model with an expected ROI of 0 when it bets at closing lines. What would its ROI be if it bet at opening lines instead?
Quantitively, how much of an advantage does betting at opening lines give?
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HUYSBR Sharp
- 04-29-09
- 253
#1Quantitively, how much of an advantage does betting at opening lines give?Tags: None -
mebaranSBR MVP
- 09-16-09
- 1540
#2In my experience with baseball, I was getting about 25-75 cents in value (depending on the amount of games) by hitting openers. I actually wasn't even hitting closers either. I would get home from work at 5pm and hit those lines (which are far from closing). So I basically just made sure I hit the openers within 30 minutes of them being posted.Comment -
hutennisSBR Wise Guy
- 07-11-10
- 847
#3@OP
Please, try to think. Please!!!!
Where that advantage you are looking for would come from?
Why would any possible advantage stay available for more than a split second
when millions are competing for picking it up first?
Who the hell are you to be able to win in that race?
@mebaran
You are not getting a wooden penny in value.
You are simply confused.
You are not paying 25 to 75 cents less for the same product.
The old product is gone and not available anymore.
Based on new information available (whatever that information may be) new product was created, properly priced, juiced up
and made available to you and anyone else with a new price tag.
There is no "open" "close" or "in between". Those are nothing more but arbitrary points in time.
Essentially, every new price is a new "open" with the same amount of "value" in it as previous "open" had.Last edited by hutennis; 06-10-12, 03:23 PM.Comment -
HUYSBR Sharp
- 04-29-09
- 253
#4@OP
Please, try to think. Please!!!!
Where that advantage you are looking for would come from?
Why would any possible advantage stay available for more than a split second
when millions are competing for picking it up first?
Who the hell are you to be able to win in that race?
@mebaran
You are not getting a wooden penny in value.
You are simply confused.
You are not paying 25 to 75 cents less for the same product.
The old product is gone and not available anymore.
Based on new information available (whatever that information may be) new product was created, properly priced, juiced up
and made available to you and anyone else with a new price tag.
There is no "open" "close" or "in between". Those are nothing more but arbitrary points in time.
Essentially, every new price is a new "open" with the same amount of "value" in it as previous "open" had.Comment -
hutennisSBR Wise Guy
- 07-11-10
- 847
#5
How can you properly assess the true nature of that move?
Has someone made an announcement?
What if there is a new information?
Who gave you a right to completely discount the possibility?
What do you know about true intentions of sharp money?
What if it is a trap?Comment -
Justin7SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-31-06
- 8577
#6Jesus!
How can you properly assess the true nature of that move?
Has someone made an announcement?
What if there is a new information?
Who gave you a right to completely discount the possibility?
What do you know about true intentions of sharp money?
What if it is a trap?
quit trolling here. He defined an assumption. Work within that assumption. If you troll anywhere in htt, you're out of here for a long time.Comment -
Justin7SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-31-06
- 8577
#7
The bigger the market, the better the openers tend to be. Smaller markets tend to see bigger movements from open to close. Ergo, if you have a model that beats closers, you'll have bigger gains hitting openers in the smaller markets than the mid-size or larger ones.Comment -
hutennisSBR Wise Guy
- 07-11-10
- 847
#8
Hah. Funny.
Not that I care in a least, but...
Here is a definition of trolling
In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion
That's probably does not go too well with your agenda so say so. Don't bring that trolling bullshit out. Be honest.
Now about assumption "there is a move but there is no information" and working within it.
The assumption is ludicrous and should not be made b/c, in a absence of confirmatory evidence you'll be right and wrong randomly.
It's like working with an assumption that the next number on a roulette wheel will be red.
Useless.
I don't see how explaining it to someone who is confused can be considered "inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic".Comment -
HUYSBR Sharp
- 04-29-09
- 253
#9
Originally posted by Justin7One way to get an estimate is back test your model against closers and openers, and look at the difference.Comment -
shipppbeermoneySBR Rookie
- 11-10-08
- 12
#10That's not me. The only thing I'm trying to provoke is critical thinking and using common sense.
Now about assumption "there is a move but there is no information" and working within it.
The assumption is ludicrous and should not be made b/c, in a absence of confirmatory evidence you'll be right and wrong randomly.
It's like working with an assumption that the next number on a roulette wheel will be red.
Useless.
You don't believe in the existence of long-term, successful cappers? These are the types who can, in theory at the very least, beat opening lines.
I think you're taking EMH to an extreme with your arguments. Your use of terms like "ludicrous" and "common sense/critical thinking" are totally misguided. Do you seriously think that every profitable opportunity is sports or even financial markets is pounced on in a matter of seconds? From my own experience, this is totally inaccurate. The markets are not *that* efficient.Comment -
Justin7SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-31-06
- 8577
#11In a small market (snooker is small, right? I seem to remember 500 limits at Greek), I would just start tracking imaginary plays.If you record 30 plays, and 24 move your way, you probably have a winning program.Comment -
hutennisSBR Wise Guy
- 07-11-10
- 847
#12You have never seen a sporting event with no critical, new information released to the public where there was a significant line move?
You don't believe in the existence of long-term, successful cappers? These are the types who can, in theory at the very least, beat opening lines.
I think you're taking EMH to an extreme with your arguments. Your use of terms like "ludicrous" and "common sense/critical thinking" are totally misguided. Do you seriously think that every profitable opportunity is sports or even financial markets is pounced on in a matter of seconds? From my own experience, this is totally inaccurate. The markets are not *that* efficient.
EMH comes in 3 separate forms.
1. Weak form.
Current market price incorporates all past publicly available information. Past market statistics provide no information that can be used by anyone to predict future prices.
Countless studies have been done and this claim has been empirically confirmed.
2. Semi strong form.
Market reflects all publicly-available information. New information is being priced in too fast for most of the participants to be able to gain an edge.
So, those with vastly superior information gathering and processing methods can have an edge.
No one argues with that either.
3. Strong form.
Market is always right. No one can have any information or do anything to gain an edge over market. Period.
Now, this is the one that failed miserably. Market is venerable to fraud, manipulations, using inside information, deception, collusion etc.
Even a biggest proponent of "Market is always right" theory, MFing Alan Greenspan had to finally admit: "I was wrong".
He did, but not before strong form of EMH became a intellectual foundation for a skillfully orchestrated campaign of deregulations (who needs regulations when market is always right no matter what anyone does) that enabled bunch of financial oligarchs to perpetrate
a massive fraud, corrupt capitalist system to a huge extend, create unimaginable problems around the world and make out in a process like all other bandits in a history of the world combined.
Back to sportsbetting and this forum and your quote though.
I don't take EMH to extreme. I simply don't apply failed strong form of it to subjects discussed here.
Why? Because it don't belong. No one (99.9%?) here or anywhere else in SB world are in a position to take advantage of fraud, manipulation, inside information etc. That's given. Moreover, there is also no way to benefit from a simple knowledge that someone out there can. We just don't belong to a club.
So when I post my "market efficiency trolls" I look at things from form 1 and form 2 perspective.
And from that perspective markets are "that" efficient. Based on scientific evidences the gotta be.
I mean whether you believe it or not thats your issue. Some people believe in a tooth fairy. Some in burning bush.
Some people even believe Earth is less than 10000 years old. People do believe weird things, you know.
But based on what we know about form 1 it's very safe to say that building models based on historical data trying to predict future results
is nothing more but a stupid waste of time and should be done only if you have no better things to do.
And form 2 applied to SB simply means that by the time you finished listening to Mike and Mike or done analyzing internet wright ups
its already way too late. Every last bit of useful information has been already priced in. So if you don't have a sister who is starting pitcher's GF there is not much you can do as far as getting an edge.
Well, as Forest Gump so eloquently put it, that's all I have to say about that.Comment -
jgilmartinSBR MVP
- 03-31-09
- 1119
#13Comment -
HUYSBR Sharp
- 04-29-09
- 253
#14http://www.oddsportal.com/snooker/results/ has opening and closing odds going back a few years in some cases (depends on the league/competition). You would have to scrape it if you wanted to do the backtest automatically, or you could manually go through each match if you have the patience.Comment -
big0marSBR MVP
- 01-09-09
- 3374
#15What kind of action can you get down on snooker???[B][B]They key isn't getting rich quick. The key is getting rich slowly, and enjoying it.
[/B][/B][SIZE=1][URL="http://forum.sbrforum.com/sbr-points/490161-points-available-loan.html#post4633361"][/URL][/SIZE]Comment -
jgilmartinSBR MVP
- 03-31-09
- 1119
#18Not sure if they are accurate or not, sorry. The archived full game odds have been accurate from my experience (I don't know about snooker in particular, I am speaking in general). The main errors I've seen have been in really small markets where the opener will be up at Pinny for such a short time before someone makes a limit bet on them, that Odds Portal hasn't even recognized that Pinny had a number up yet, and will record the number AFTER they move the line as the opener, when in fact there was a better number available (albeit for a very short period of time, and for a very low limit).Comment -
HUYSBR Sharp
- 04-29-09
- 253
#19Not sure if they are accurate or not, sorry. The archived full game odds have been accurate from my experience (I don't know about snooker in particular, I am speaking in general). The main errors I've seen have been in really small markets where the opener will be up at Pinny for such a short time before someone makes a limit bet on them, that Odds Portal hasn't even recognized that Pinny had a number up yet, and will record the number AFTER they move the line as the opener, when in fact there was a better number available (albeit for a very short period of time, and for a very low limit).
Hendry S. - Maguire S. betting odds and user predictions. snooker World Snooker Championship 2012 H2H Results. Register for free on Odds Portal.
You see that the real closing odds were about 1.5 but for the bookmakers that played the game live the data include the live odds which closed at about 1.02 (or at least that the last odds the site recorded).Comment -
jgilmartinSBR MVP
- 03-31-09
- 1119
#20I'm not referring to the accuracy per se, but rather to whether or not live betting can be excluded from the odds. For example, examine this:
Hendry S. - Maguire S. betting odds and user predictions. snooker World Snooker Championship 2012 H2H Results. Register for free on Odds Portal.
You see that the real closing odds were about 1.5 but for the bookmakers that played the game live the data include the live odds which closed at about 1.02 (or at least that the last odds the site recorded).Comment
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