Risk, Return, and Gambling Market Efficiency paper found req opinions

[jakeandba]

All:

Was doing research on ROI rates in wagering. Found this paper, completed in 2006 and probably a thesis paper for a Master's degree or maybe a paper for upper class. Would love to hear opinions or criticism of the paper.

http://jmercer.ba.ttu.edu/Friday%20Seminar%20Papers/Risk%20and%20Gambling%20Market%20Efficiency.pdf

[TomG]

Well, what do you think?

[gamble4heisman]

i found it relatively elementary without any real conclusions.... more informative with no new ideas.

[VLR100]

Some good reading in the references section. Also in section v, the author mentions betting only at a really large return rate, 30 or 40 percent. I don't know about you but I'd settle for lower returns. Difficult enough to hit 52.38% at -110. Using fractional kelly is probably a better way to reduce the risk of ruin then restrict oneself to a smaller number of higher edge betting opportunities.

[Brock Windsor]

Comparing Apples and Oranges no? I just skimmed it but it seems he's not reducing the risk-free or market rate to one day of opportunity cost. If it's a straight bet on one event you would only have that money tied up for one day, not one year. Did I miss his explanation of this? Looks like a paper written on Sunday and turned in Monday morning.

[Inkwell77]

Some good reading in the references section. Also in section v, the author mentions betting only at a really large return rate, 30 or 40 percent. I don't know about you but I'd settle for lower returns. Difficult enough to hit 52.38% at -110. Using fractional kelly is probably a better way to reduce the risk of ruin then restrict oneself to a smaller number of higher edge betting opportunities.

I will be trying to read these.

[TomG]

It is quite shocking that papers of this quality actually get published. It's really a shame too, as it means the few good papers are less likely to be read because of garbage like this.

[Thremp]

Hopefully he learned some math between this paper and his MBA classes.

[MonkeyF0cker]

It is quite shocking that papers of this quality actually get published. It's really a shame too, as it means the few good papers are less likely to be read because of garbage like this.

Is that necessarily a bad thing?