Ideas for lasting a little longer at rec books.

[subs]

Hey

i remember a thread about this subject a long time ago but can't find it so pls excuse the repetition.

I guess i may be the type of player that books don't like cos they b banning me pretty quick, so i'm wondering if any out there in my position may have ideas for staying alive at slow books.

maybe there r some books that u have been able to confuse w disguise plays or maybe this hasn't worked and u have wasted money on -EV disguise plays. be amazing for me to know which books this is a pointless waste with and which books u think this might work for.

i get that the worst books paddy power or stan james r a waste of time but i would like to stay alive at some of the middle of the road books like bodog or bwin etc.


any1 have any suggestions or care to share some experiences that would b amazing.

my suggestions r:

if the book does a refer to trader pause learn what the max is before trader gets involved.

obv. don't bet 3rd division polish football or the like. preferably stick to the same sports.

don't use oversubscribed arbitrage services.

i've also heard that casino might help...



thanks for any feedback

[Duff85]

book tons of square action and send it through your account.

[subs]

thanks Duff i remembered that 1 and that is prolly THE best way, but i'm johnny no (gambling) mates

how about u send some my way and i'll grovel and beg?

BTW if u know any1 near byron tell em i'll give em a rebate on losses off tab's lines, LOL but no sharps betting dogs ok.

[mathdotcom]

book tons of square action and send it through your account.

Then you're just throwing away the $$ you'd make on the square action.

At the end of the day you can't beat the book without beating the book.

[VLR100]

If you don't mind paying a little you could bet some square plays and lay it off on an exchange or another bookie. Up to you whether the money you'd lose on this is worth it. You'd probably get limited on the weaker markets you'd be profiting on anyway.

[mr.ed]

I think most books decide to limit you when you start requesting money from them, so attempting to fool them by disguise will not work.

But you did say you want to survive just a "little longer" at rec books, so I would recommend playing some parlays now and again....as this is what many unskilled rec players do....and they may think you are one of them that has just happened to get hot. Perhaps you will squeeze another check or two out of them before they wise up.

[mrmarket]

You're probably going to have to do a couple of things: give racebook action, casino action, uncorrelated parlays, nba teasers etc. I've found it depends mostly on luck/incompetence of employees profiling players. In the end it's hard to mask beating the market consistently and eventually they will adapt. How long it takes is another matter. At the euro books sometimes 1-2 bets is enough to get you limited.
At that point most bettors suddenly teach all their friends/relatives about sports betting and recommend the books they were beating

[subs]

thanks u guys.

i'm going to try all those things and a few that were mailed to me to see which books might be fooled and which just look at beating closer or current line and boot straight away. i think in the long run it may be worth giving up a little to do it.... i mean if they going to profile me i think i might profile them back

[King_Suckerman]

Stick to sports that someone from your part of the world would be interested in.

[mathdotcom]

ive tried everything and if i could go back and do it over i would never lay off at all or mask anything

some places i made 1/4 max bets and got limited quickly. wish I had pumped them for the max since they were going to boot anyways.
And others I did pump for the max and lasted forever -- was glad I did.

Just hit them hard and hope they like that you're a 'big action player'. And if you're hitting off market stuff hope that they think you're a square for betting props or Swedish handball for the max.

[texhooper]

subs, got no advice at all for you but that is an awesome avatar.

[evo34]

Are you getting booted for winning in major sports or for arbing/steaming or maxing small sports?

[subs]

ive tried everything and if i could go back and do it over i would never lay off at all or mask anything

some places i made 1/4 max bets and got limited quickly. wish I had pumped them for the max since they were going to boot anyways.

yea mathsy, i am totally feeling that as well, especially w the really chicken shit books.

And others I did pump for the max and lasted forever -- was glad I did.

seems random or v book specific. i don't know that it is possible to give much generic advice, except what's been already offered cos it seems to b so book specific. maybe that is too much on a public forum... altho i (prolly many others too) would love to see what the consensus from the sharper players would b. but that will never happen...

Just hit them hard and hope they like that you're a 'big action player'. And if you're hitting off market stuff hope that they think you're a square for betting props or Swedish handball for the max.

IMO, that would b the best way for 90% of books, i think. lol @ the last sentence, obv. they haven't liked prop action at all...and never had the pleasure of beating handball...

subs, got no advice at all for you but that is an awesome avatar.

thanks

Are you getting booted for winning in major sports or for arbing/steaming or maxing small sports?

sometimes before i've even won anything

mostly 8 leagues, all major sports. don't get me wrong, i'm not saying at all that i'm crushing or that i'm really good at this. i'm going reasonably well, volume could b way better so could my skills.

[Justin7]

Bet almost all parlays. This does several things. First, it increases your volatility. You may bust out, and get a nice reload offer.

More importantly, it is a pain in the ass to profile parlay players. It's trivial to profile someone betting straight sides, and kicking their ass on every closing number (or just beating their off-market numbers). It's not a really a lot more work to profile parlay players, but managers are lazy, and discriminatory. I don't know of any sportsbooks that have profiling software to analyze parlays. If you play parlays (not obviously correlated), their first impression is you are an idiot.

[boeing power]

Bet almost all parlays. This does several things. First, it increases your volatility. You may bust out, and get a nice reload offer.

More importantly, it is a pain in the ass to profile parlay players. It's trivial to profile someone betting straight sides, and kicking their ass on every closing number (or just beating their off-market numbers). It's not a really a lot more work to profile parlay players, but managers are lazy, and discriminatory. I don't know of any sportsbooks that have profiling software to analyze parlays. If you play parlays (not obviously correlated), their first impression is you are an idiot.

And they would be right

[Justin7]

[/U]
And they would be right

Why do people with no clue keep posting tripe in here? Frag, I don't have time for this. Boeing, don't post again in this forum for a week.

[mathdotcom]

If you're getting a slightly better than market number at a book then there is usually no way to turn it into a +EV parlay. Of course the dream situation is the book is so square their game line and total are both off and in a way that is friendly to a correlated parlay.

Maybe in football the positive correlation is enough ( but then it's more obvious ), or some small market sport, but I can't see it happening in MLB/NBA/NHL. Plus the books with the square lines have juiced up lines so that if you parlay it with the total you probably are what the sportsbook thinks you are: an idiot.

As for props which can be really off market, you can't parlay them.

Anyhow you can come up with a lot of situations where this can work but in principle it is not feasible. Maybe it's worthwhile at a book with tremendous bonus offers so that you can afford to parlay a nice game line with a slightly -EV total in order to get the reloads.

[Justin7]

Mathy,

What if you can find 15 plays that have small to mid +EV, using a combination of handicapping and shopping?

[Thremp]

I agree with Boeing and feel the ban was in error. I would assume almost every sharp would agree with me.

[subs]

Well in terms of disguise, what Justin suggests seems to have some merit. i don't know about mathematically and def. not ease of execution, but betting parlays has its uses for lower limit books.

also agree w Mathsy that finding enough parlays simultaneously is tricky. i know that there are some books where u can bet a lot more on parlays even after they've limited u. trouble is then the staking also gets tricky...

Thremp, y u think parlays r so terrible? from a purely EG POV u may b right, but from a longevity POV u don't think it works at all or have u found something else that does?


i'd like to hear Boeing's reasons, does he know how books profile players/have some experience or was he just talking out of his ass?

[mathdotcom]

Mathy,

What if you can find 15 plays that have small to mid +EV, using a combination of handicapping and shopping?

OK so we're dealing with a seriously square book then. The one that comes to mind for me is the old Betallsports which quickly limited me to $100, but I didn't mind since you could scan their MLB lines each day and bet almost every single one. A typical card had 15 games and with moneyline/runline/total that's almost $4500 in action a day. By all means use parlays here.

But maybe I've been booted from such shops so long ago I forget if any like that even exist anymore. I am thinking more of a slow moving shop like jazette books, betonline two summers ago (often had better than scalps with pinn), sportsinteraction, bodog. If you watch closely you should be able to get several nice bets in on any given day but you don't have that much time and the edge isn't so great that you can afford to dilute it with -EV parlay legs.

[durito]

yea i miss wagerstreet

[Thremp]

I'm still confused where we're finding +EV vanilla numbers and why we're posting on the internet instead of going to five star tropical resorts. Why would we still be alive at these rec books instead of just bombing 5 figure pin-bombs and lollin at our AMA?

Also, what is the EG of this alleged RR parlay? Has anyone actually played RR parlays in simultaneous events? What are we gonna stake on these? If you don't quickly see the problems in this proposed "solution", it merits a more careful consideration.

[Justin7]

I'm still confused where we're finding +EV vanilla numbers

Perhaps that's why you busted out?

and why we're posting on the internet instead of going to five star tropical resorts.

Piss away money, and miss +EV opportunities? See my first reply.

Why would we still be alive at these rec books instead of just bombing 5 figure pin-bombs and lollin at our AMA?

You really don't get it, do you.

Also, what is the EG of this alleged RR parlay? Has anyone actually played RR parlays in simultaneous events? What are we gonna stake on these? If you don't quickly see the problems in this proposed "solution", it merits a more careful consideration.

You need to be a successful handicapper before you can do this type of analysis. Nothing you have ever posted suggests you take this approach. If you reach a point where you are certain you have a 1.5% advantage on numerous parlay legs, and can't solve this, I'll be happy to help you. But the quick solution is: as much as you can, in most cases.

[durito]

whae books do you use this strategy at justin?

[Cicima6709]

Do books look at units, or total money won? I'm a small time player, betting only props for about $50-60 a prop...always have had a very solid MLB and NHL prop system, and can make about 15-20 units a month. Is this chump change to books? Or would they look at winning percentage more then the amount won. Because Iv heard people claiming withdrawing 10k at a time with no problems, so should my 1200 a month fly under the radar?

[Thremp]

Meh. I'm pretty sure that I will be getting a sizable stake in the near future. Good thing I wasn't born a p00r and was upper middle class or I couldn't keep getting my folks to bail me out.

I honestly think your reply is complete nonsense and now when you're questioned about it you're saying nothing of substance. The EG on RR parlays is terrible. How are you getting around the fact that with the ability to recognize a +EV wager at a vanilla number will make you very rich, very fast? Could you toss out a proposed scenario where your magical system works?

To be quite frank, I don't think you actually employ this strategy nor that you have ever successfully attempted it. I doubt you've even bothered to look at the EG of your proposed scenario vs straight betting. Much less the fact that someone who is sharp enough to estimate a basket of closers to a point where they can discern a 1.5% edge will likely have an insanely valuable model which will make enough money that they'll be more concerned about getting down mid-five figures than piddling around with some low EG rec book round robin strategy.

[Dark Horse]

Good thing I wasn't born a p00r and was upper middle class or I couldn't keep getting my folks to bail me out.

Makes sense. Lots of snot drooling down, with mommy and daddy waiting in the wings to clean it up.

I honestly think your reply is complete nonsense and now when you're questioned about it you're saying nothing of substance. The EG on RR parlays is terrible. How are you getting around the fact that with the ability to recognize a +EV wager at a vanilla number will make you very rich, very fast? Could you toss out a proposed scenario where your magical system works?

You should apply for that job as the E-Trade baby.

[mathdotcom]

Do books look at units, or total money won? I'm a small time player, betting only props for about $50-60 a prop...always have had a very solid MLB and NHL prop system, and can make about 15-20 units a month. Is this chump change to books? Or would they look at winning percentage more then the amount won. Because Iv heard people claiming withdrawing 10k at a time with no problems, so should my 1200 a month fly under the radar?

Every book is different. You're mostly safe but will still get booted here and there.

[mr.ed]

My limits were just cut in half at EZ....which was on the same day as a withdrawal request, so it's pretty clear that withdrawals are their wake up calls there when it comes to ID'ing sharp players. Perhaps if I had included a few parlays here and there I'd still be wagering with my prior limits.

When looking at your betting history, even if you include a few parlays it will appear at first blush that you are the ultimate square, as parlays take up a lot of "space" in betting histories. Even if you are only playing 10% parlays, it will appear that parlays dominate your card. To the lazy manager who doesn't want to take the time to closely scrutinize your betting patterns, there is good chance you will be dismissed as a "lucky square." And since the goal of this thread is to last just a "little longer" at rec books, if you can find the +EV parlays, it certainly can't hurt to play parlays, and there is a good chance it can prolong your stay.

I use the parlay strategy in one well-known book as my limits have been cut so drastically that it is the only thing I have left. This is proof that at least one some books will have more patience with parlays players as I continue to wager there even when winning long term.

[princecharles]

Subs,
Great thread!
You seem like a real decent humble guy.
You even got Mathy to 'be nice' :-)

Great job,

TTYS

[mathdotcom]

Subs,
Great thread!
You seem like a real decent humble guy.
You even got Mathy to 'be nice' :-)

Great job,

TTYS

I just call BS when I think I see BS. Some of it is honest disagreement like in this thread but most of the time there is just complete stupidity coming out of peoples mouths and I'm not going to give them the benefit of the doubt.

[subs]

Parlay staking is a messy subject 4 me (maybe others too):

i find/bet my plays at different times, so i'm always adding plays.
the EV is changing all the time w parlays.
I fail at messy parlay maths
speed of execution.
much more admin which is a pain in the ass anyway.


mostly i find i'm too slow w parlays, i just tend to get what i can while the numbers r still there. if the last bet didn't move then i'll attempt the parlay. mostly straight sides r within my BR cos i'm not (LOL) dropping 5 figure pin-bombs. but if there's a lot of additional bets at 1 book then parlays can quickly and 4 me, v messily get out of control. or is there a lot of buying back...

any ideas?

[princecharles]

Parlay staking is a messy subject 4 me (maybe others too):

i find/bet my plays at different times, so i'm always adding plays.
the EV is changing all the time w parlays.
I fail at messy parlay maths
speed of execution.
much more admin which is a pain in the ass anyway.


mostly i find i'm too slow w parlays, i just tend to get what i can while the numbers r still there. if the last bet didn't move then i'll attempt the parlay. mostly straight sides r within my BR cos i'm not (LOL) dropping 5 figure pin-bombs. but if there's a lot of additional bets at 1 book then parlays can quickly and 4 me, v messily get out of control. or is there a lot of buying back...

any ideas?

I'm thinking this may be a spot for the much malaigned open parlay?

[Thremp]

When someone claims they bet "as much as possible" on a 15 team RR parlay and you don't immediately think "lololololololololololol" it is a sign that you need to revisit "what I think I know" on a very remedial level.

Maybe someone who wants to run an overnight sim can post the Kelly solution for it (Or maybe someone who isn't as p00r as I am and didn't have to trade computers with someone to have money to buy food or the obv: not as fukkin dumb as me).