Beating the Closing Line question. How often do u need to beat it to expect a profit?

[mathdotcom]

hutennis would you take Nats +106 if I offered it to you right now? And if so would you let it ride or would you scalp it or what?

Currently pinn offering

Phillies -106
Nats +100

Currently matchbook offering

Phillies -105
Nats +100

Tell me the course of action.

[VLR100]

You have to handicap yourself first before you handicap anything else.

How do you handicap yourself? When making a bet you determine your edge and bet accordingly, not on whether you handicap yourself as a good or bad gambler.

Whether it is efficient or not and/or beatable by somebody else should make no difference for you personally in you making a decisions to get involved or not.

The more inefficient a market is, the easier it is to beat. Why do you think bookies set the limits so low on inefficient markets? So yes, the efficiency of a market should be taken into account when deciding to bet it or not.

My assertions is that chances for success are so small and payoff is so uncertain that no rational person should ever get involved with anything more than for entertainment utility.

Well that's it guys, no one can ever make money in this game, let's all go home.

I don't think you understand rational choice theory. If a rational individual can make a bet at +ev, depending on their risk tolerance, they probably will bet it. If i give you +2000 on the heat to win the NBA championship do you take it only to increase your entertainment utility, but not your income?

[hutennis]

Well, since baseball is not a sport that allows me to do what I love doing and taking bets to simply let it ride is certainly not something I love doing (even with a bit of premium in it) and risk free scalping is not there (lest time I checked MB has a commission on both sides) I would have to pass.

But if you would be similarly generous while taking, lets say, Baghdadis (its +100 now) I'd be grateful.

[hutennis]

@ VLR100

How to handicap yourself it's your business. My point is why you should do it.

You must prove to yourself mathematically whether or not you are able to correctly determine your edge to begin with.
Maybe you are just overestimating your abilities. After all, it's so common for humans. 85% of people convinced they are better than average drivers, remember?

And yes, I would sell my house on the lake to put everything I have on Heat if some one would take that much giving me +2000 on them winning a championship.
But what this ridiculous hypothetical has to do with understanding rational choice theory?
Whether or not it is a rational choice to take Heat for anything more than "entertainment money" at current market - that's the question.

[mathdotcom]

Thanks hutennis thats all i needed to know. You are a true sharp.

[durito]

take the +106. win. repeat.

[hutennis]

Thanks hutennis thats all i needed to know. You are a true sharp.

You need to know so little. You must be very sharp.

[mathdotcom]

hutennis one more question

what if it were Nats +107?

Just looking to bounce some ideas off you here. Maybe we can move it to PMs to keep this very insightful exchange off the public record.

[hutennis]

take the +106. win. repeat.

I understand the premise very well. Believe me.
I just have no reason to do it.
If I can get 2% on risk money with a fraction of variance taking that +106 can produce - why get involved?

[mathdotcom]

Yeah and why pick up a $20 bill off the ground if you already have one in your wallet.

Hutennis i got you all wrong. Do you want to start with me what could be the greatest syndicate of all time?

[hutennis]

I have no idea whether I'm picking up anything of value or someone is pick pocketing me when I'm banding over.
Thats how I see it.

And I have to pass on creating a great syndicate too.
Not much in a way of shared responsibilities here.
I do appreciate the offer though.

[mathdotcom]

love this guy

[MonkeyF0cker]

I often wonder what the value of a $20 bill is too, hutennis.

[donkson]

this guy is a troll right?

please?

[chunk]

On the other hand, after pounding on the numbers, a little entertainment isn't all bad.

[tukkk]

more random excel graphs please

[hutennis]

more random excel graphs please

Yeah. Sure. Absolutely. Coming right up.

[JohnnyC]

take the +106. win. repeat.

March $adness

[antifoil]

what is the margin of error on the closing line efficiency? like on that Nationals +100 or National +106. is that 6 cents outside the margin of the true percentage of a teams probability to win?

[mikew]

While implementation of BTCL may be a concern for some, it's an ancillary argument.

It's like telling a runner how to win a race. "Well, you have to cross the finish line first."

hutennis' argument is, "Yeah. But you can't win every race. There are a lot of fast people."

The fact of the matter is that even an average runner is capable of finding opponents that he could beat, and with self-determination, rigorous training, and selective participation, that average runner could win a majority of his/her races.

thanks, very good analogy, and in line with what Pokerjoe was saying too.

Yeah and why pick up a $20 bill off the ground if you already have one in your wallet.

LOL

[Thremp]

Continual focus on margin of error makes me giggle.

[mathdotcom]

Monkey has mellowed over the years. It could be the women he's been juggling lately.