Beating the Closing Line question. How often do u need to beat it to expect a profit?

[hutennis]

huetennis suffers from horrible reading comprehension skills -110
huetennis suffers from horrible reasoning ability -110

Will take $10,000k a side. Absolutely NO correlated parlays allowed.

What you are doing now is commonly known as argumentum ad hominem and is a logical fallacy.
It works like this: instead of considering argument itself one chooses to attack/ridicule person making an argument.

So far, 3 posts in a raw and 3 very common logical fallacies in a raw.
Looks like over on your score in this department is a very good bet.

What else do you have in mind?

[durito]

This would only be definitely wrong if this



would have any reasonable chance to be definitely right.

But it has none. Your "If" is a Taxes size "If". It's nothing more but a fantastic scenario that does not happen in real life.
And that makes your "logic" nothing more but a typical "straw man" fallacy.

If you make money from line shopping, steam chasing or bonus whoring then fine.
Those are legit and understandable ways. Just don't call yourself (not necessarily you personally, but in general) a bright handicapper with amazingly developed model that allows you to BTCL on a consistent basis. Be honest.

I'm confused does this win or not?

If not where did I get all this crap.

[hutennis]

There are money to be made in SB by line shopping, steam chasing and bonus whoring.
Overwhelming majority of those who made money in SB made it this way.

Some of these winners, however, chose to attribute their success in public to much more glamorous, mysterious and enviable way.
They claim to possess IT. They claim to be able to analytically outperform the world.
No need to substantiate those claims. Condescending one liners are usually enough to impress suckers desperately hungry for Holy Grail and create a certain image. These guys are either confused themselves or not being honest.

Again, they did made money all right. Nobody takes it away form them.
It's just the source of income is much more down to Earth.
There are much simpler explanations for their success.
Line shopping, arbitrage, steam chasing, bonus whoring, scalping, middling, luck...
You know, good old stuff.

[MonkeyF0cker]

If steam chasing is profitable, who creates the steam other than bettors? You do realize that it's simply bettors "chasing" other bettors' wagers. Right?

[hutennis]

Please. You know better than that.

It's all a reaction to a slow book.
First it's a "bad" number and then it's a rush to get on it while it there.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Please. You know better than that.

It's all a reaction to a slow book.
First it's a "bad" number and then it's a rush to get on it while it there.

LOL. What? How do you think the number becomes bad? What do you think STEAM means?

This is the most absurd conversation I've ever had here.

[hutennis]

LOL. What? How do you think the number becomes bad? What do you think STEAM means?

This is the most absurd conversation I've ever had here.

I'll post it here too. My case is #1

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sportsbooks-industry/1544589-chasing-steam-limiting-books-justin7.html#post13506281

[MonkeyF0cker]

And how do you think the line at Pinnacle goes from -5 to -6? Magic?

[hutennis]

And how do you think the line at Pinnacle goes from -5 to -6? Magic?

New information came in.
But thats not the right question.
Right question is why it's still -5 at 5D?

[durito]

New information came in.
But thats not the right question.
Right question is why it's still -5 at 5D?

So you think the sports betting market is perfectly efficient at all times?

[MonkeyF0cker]

New information came in.
But thats not the right question.
Right question is why it's still -5 at 5D?

Uhh. Because it wasn't bet there yet. (But it would anyway because they clone Pinnacle.)

So you actually think whenever Pinnacle moves a line, it's because of information and not wagers? Holy crap. You have no clue.

[durito]

Tony actually likes to leave it at -5 but only take action on +5. How you feel about that justin?

[hutennis]

So you think the sports betting market is perfectly efficient at all times?

The thing is that it dont have to be perfectly efficient at all times.
Juice acts like a nice margin for error, just in case.

Making assumption that market is inefficient to the tune larger than juice is a huge and dangerous assumption to make.
At least, using Justin's terminology, its unsupported assumption.

[Justin7]

Tony actually likes to leave it at -5 but only take action on +5. How you feel about that justin?

I'd call that a party foul for an A-rated book. In that hypothetical, I'd demand they fix it, or downgrade them to about C. Did this happen to you?

[durito]

Why doesn't pinny open with full limits?

[durito]

I'd call that a party foul for an A-rated book. In that hypothetical, I'd demand they fix it, or downgrade them to about C. Did this happen to you?

It happens at 5dimes everyday for nearly a year.

[Justin7]

It happens at 5dimes everyday for nearly a year.

Prove it. Give me screen shots, and I'll raise hell.

If you bet one side and they don't move the line for 2 minutes (and they reject duplicate bets during that time), that doesn't count.

[MonkeyF0cker]

The thing is that it dont have to be perfectly efficient at all times.
Juice acts like a nice margin for error, just in case.

Making assumption that market is inefficient to the tune larger than juice is a huge and dangerous assumption to make.
At least, using Justin's terminology, its unsupported assumption.

Uhh. You can't use the term efficiency and say that money doesn't move the lines in the same breath. The ENTIRE concept of market efficiency is founded on the bid/ask pricing of market participants (i.e. people buying/selling stock in financial markets or bettors in sports markets).

[durito]

Prove it. Give me screen shots, and I'll raise hell.

If you bet one side and they don't move the line for 2 minutes (and they reject duplicate bets during that time), that doesn't count.

What if I bet one side, and they reject bets from you on that side but they will take them on the other side?

They essentially are taking lines off the board after a bet until they can adjust, but they only take off one side. Usually it is moved in a few minutes, but i've seen a few last hours like this.

[Justin7]

I assume this is automated. If they do it for several hours during regular betting business hours (which I'll arbitrarily define as 11am to 10pm assuming no Holiday, and later if there is a big game with a halftime later), it's a foul.

If you bet something in the middle of the night, and they didn't adjust their line until 10am (or even 11am on a slow day), I wouldn't call it a foul.

[Justin7]

Also... If the wager is limited for you, is it limited for other people as well?

I frequently get the "This line is being re-evaluated" message after making a second trivial bet with my reduced limits. Do others as well?

[durito]

Also... If the wager is limited for you, is it limited for other people as well?

I frequently get the "This line is being re-evaluated" message after making a second trivial bet with my reduced limits. Do others as well?

Yes, everyone gets it. I get it all the time when I haven't even bet that line. Try to bet the other side though and it goes right through.

[Justin7]

Yes, everyone gets it. I get it all the time when I haven't even bet that line. Try to bet the other side though and it goes right through.

Does this happen when people are actually there? For an hour?

[durito]

Does this happen when people are actually there? For an hour?

I do not know how often, but yes it happened in march in the middle of the afternoon on a CBI tourney NCAAB game for several hours.

It happens for minutes all day every day. Make a max bet. Ask someone else to try the same bet, and then the other side.

[Justin7]

I do not know how often, but yes it happened in march in the middle of the afternoon on a CBI tourney NCAAB game for several hours.

It happens for minutes all day every day. Make a max bet. Ask someone else to try the same bet, and then the other side.

If you can duplicate this in the afternoon on a non-holiday for more than 20 minutes, I'll call foul. Send screen shots please.

[MonkeyF0cker]

If you can duplicate this in the afternoon on a non-holiday for more than 20 minutes, I'll call foul. Send screen shots please.

20 minutes? Why so long?

2 minutes is far too long.

Taking one-sided action at a known bad number is criminal. You'd get hung here for that.

[durito]

20 minutes. lol

[Justin7]

20 minutes? Why so long?

2 minutes is far too long.

Taking one-sided action at a known bad number is criminal. You'd get hung here for that.

What if the line manager for a smaller sport takes a shit? Or ignores his monitor while shoveling down lunch, or whatever... If you want me to call them out on a foul, make it clear and absolute. Leave no room for grey areas. Yes, it would be better if there were no two minute gaps. But I don't want to raise a shitstorm, and then later say "This guy was taking a shit, so it was ok this one time". Give me something flagrant. If it is as bad as Durito describes, you'll find it.

[MonkeyF0cker]

What if the line manager for a smaller sport takes a shit? Or ignores his monitor while shoveling down lunch, or whatever... If you want me to call them out on a foul, make it clear and absolute. Leave no room for grey areas. Yes, it would be better if there were no two minute gaps. But I don't want to raise a shitstorm, and then later say "This guy was taking a shit, so it was ok this one time". Give me something flagrant. If it is as bad as Durito describes, you'll find it.

Well, how's he negating action on one side if he's taking a shit? It HAS to be intentional.

[skrtelfan]

I'd call that a party foul for an A-rated book. In that hypothetical, I'd demand they fix it, or downgrade them to about C. Did this happen to you?

Bodog does this all the time on smaller markets and there have been hundreds of posts about it. You refused to admit BetUS did this for a very long time and even called them "a hidden gem for smaller bettors" after being told about it.

[durito]

Bodog does this all the time on smaller markets and there have been hundreds of posts about it. You refused to admit BetUS did this for a very long time and even called them "a hidden gem for smaller bettors" after being told about it.

He made a video about BetUS doing it finally. They don't advertise here though.


Justin, if he wants to take a shit, play minesweeper or whatever (lol at there actually being a small sport linesman at 5dimes though) fine. If they are so afraid of what to do after one bet, then take the game off the board ON BOTH SIDES. Or just stop playing follow the leader and move the ******* line without having to check what pinnacle is doing first.

[skrtelfan]

Right I saw the video but he did that after he had countless people tell him about the BetUS stunts, and he wouldn't investigate himself. His M.O. is "you send me a video of them screwing you but I won't investigate myself."

But yeah pretty simple to just take the game off the board, Pinnacle does it all the time. I wanted to bet an early soccer game this past weekend before I went to bed and Pinnacle had it off for about 20 minutes straight. I was annoyed, but it's smart line setting by them.

[Duff85]

it doesn't mean that at all. it's a possibility but not a rule.

Not suggesting you are wrong - but what are some of the other reasons you believe it could be?

[durito]

Right I saw the video but he did that after he had countless people tell him about the BetUS stunts, and he wouldn't investigate himself. His M.O. is "you send me a video of them screwing you but I won't investigate myself."

But yeah pretty simple to just take the game off the board, Pinnacle does it all the time. I wanted to bet an early soccer game this past weekend before I went to bed and Pinnacle had it off for about 20 minutes straight. I was annoyed, but it's smart line setting by them.

Oh I know, I was among the people that told him about the Betus delay bull shit (well before the book came out)

[mathdotcom]

1 second is too long

if they're going to re-evaluate the price then both sides should be unavailable