Is Fading Illogical?

**BernardMadoff** · 04-19-12, 10:38 PM

Originally posted by hutennis

No one can win long term by doing what I think you are doing.
Good traders have been beating negative expectation game forever.

But that's totally different ball game.

What do you think Im doing good sir?

**hutennis** · 04-19-12, 10:50 PM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

What do you think Im doing good sir?

I think you are trying to pick winners.

**BernardMadoff** · 04-19-12, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by hutennis

I think you are trying to pick winners.

Is that a losing proposition?

**hutennis** · 04-19-12, 10:53 PM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

Is that a losing proposition?

Yes.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 04-19-12, 10:59 PM

HU, in your mind, does your theory only apply to spreads? What about MLB and NHL?

**BernardMadoff** · 04-19-12, 11:07 PM

Originally posted by hutennis

Yes.

Sounds like you tried to pick winners when you first started betting and you lost doing so and therefore you believe nobody can do it and win. Perhaps you have a superiority complex and feel since you couldnt do it then it cant be done. Perhaps you dont understand where the line is originated and/or you feel whoever puts out the lines know in advance what will happen, if any or all of the above are true, therein lies the problem.

**hutennis** · 04-19-12, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

HU, in your mind, does your theory only apply to spreads? What about MLB and NHL?

I think due to the nature of scoring in those sports those sports are not suitable, for me anyway. Very tiny volume too.
I very well could be wrong, b.c half of the world trades soccer which is similar to hockey

But for what I try to do it's no good. I would not be able to make a penny there.
Tennis is the only thing I found to be almost tailor made for me.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 04-19-12, 11:40 PM

Do you bet the spread on tennis matches? Or the moneyline?

**hutennis** · 04-19-12, 11:59 PM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

Sounds like you tried to pick winners when you first started betting and you lost doing so and therefore you believe nobody can do it and win. Perhaps you have a superiority complex and feel since you couldnt do it then it cant be done. Perhaps you dont understand where the line is originated and/or you feel whoever puts out the lines know in advance what will happen, if any or all of the above are true, therein lies the problem.

I don't thing I ever made more than ten direct bets all together.
Never at meaningful stakes either.
I am very familiar though with how speculative markets work.
I've been involved in them with more than meaningful stakes and I did not lose in them either.

My philosophy is simple.
If I can't see where money should come from I don't bet.
If other people's reasons on where the money should come from do not even begin to hold a drop of water for me, I don't do what they do just b/c they do it.
If my arguments did not provoke any kind of critical thinking, which was my major intention btw, so be it.
At some point we have to agree to disagree and I wish you the best of luck.

**hutennis** · 04-20-12, 12:00 AM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

Do you bet the spread on tennis matches? Or the moneyline?

ML only.

**BernardMadoff** · 04-20-12, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by hutennis

I don't thing I ever made more than ten direct bets all together.
Never at meaningful stakes either.
I am very familiar though with how speculative markets work.
I've been involved in them with more than meaningful stakes and I did not lose in them either.

My philosophy is simple.
If I can't see where money should come from I don't bet.
If other people's reasons on where the money should come from do not even begin to hold a drop of water for me, I don't do what they do just b/c they do it.
If my arguments did not provoke any kind of critical thinking, which was my major intention btw, so be it.
At some point we have to agree to disagree and I wish you the best of luck.

Thats cool bro, I respect where youre coming from.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 04-20-12, 12:16 AM

Originally posted by hutennis

ML only.

Though NHL and MLB is not your niche, it's along the same lines....if you bet the ML's. I believe that focusing just on these two can be very profitable...I can testify to it...Football and Basketball, not that's a different world and one that I don't even want to try to figure out.

edit: I see that knowing where money is coming from is a part of your decision-making process.

**hutennis** · 04-20-12, 12:20 AM

Different strokes for different folks, I guess

**the_orangekat** · 04-20-12, 12:37 AM

Is fading illogical? Well, I've known some gamblers who really are THAT BAD. Some of these guys hit under 50%. I don't keep records but I am around 62% on NFL sides HOWEVER I don't always stay disciplined and find myself having NUMEROUS 4-1 or 4-2 nights where I break even, no friggen lie. Some of you might remember me from PST back in the days as a mod. Not to toot my own horn but was regarded as one of the top handicappers there (Handle was orangekat) for a while before having a falling out with Big Bruce (the ADMIN). I go big on one play and it loses, without fail. I win all my small ones. I've also found that when I post plays, I tend to lose more often. Maybe I'm just superstitious but on a 12-3 run and haven't posted any plays. I've always kept my door open to talking plays over IM but if I post publicly, I seem to curse myself.

My take on 'fading.' It's bad Karma (and classless) to announce publicly to a guy you are fading him/her. But I do my capping by instinct, fading public plays (and I do extensive research to figure out where the public money lies) and yes, I will fade bad cappers with a proven track record. Trend analysis just isn't my thing. I would say INSTINCT is my best weapon in handicapping.

**Lookingtostart** · 04-22-12, 05:56 AM

The balance in sports betting seems to be: many squares bet small and lose, whilst a few sharps bet big and make a profit as well as the bookies. Sharps and bookies cannot exist without squares.

However, you could say that bookies make too much profit and there is more balancing to be had... if that's the case, there are lines to be exploited because they are out of balance.

I think the latter statement is true.

**BettingWizard** · 04-22-12, 10:46 AM

Nope.

Just ask Lang and Brock Faders

**hutennis** · 04-22-12, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by Lookingtostart

The balance in sports betting seems to be: many squares bet small and lose, whilst a few sharps bet big and make a profit as well as the bookies. Sharps and bookies cannot exist without squares.

However, you could say that bookies make too much profit and there is more balancing to be had... if that's the case, there are lines to be exploited because they are out of balance.

I think the latter statement is true.

In a nutshell, books don't make money from results of skilled handicapping.
They make money from premium applied on top of results of skilled handicapping.
No one who don't have an access to premium can tap into this source of income.