[specialronnie29]

the % of sharp action on 2h is probably higher than on game lines
if it is mostly sharp action why do books offer 2h especially places like pinnacle

potential answers:

i have underestimated the volume of square action
there is substantial disagreement among sharps

i find the second answer hard to believe yet lines fluctuate a lot and its not just due to sharps hitting a side and then scalpers hitting the other

so what is the answer?

[TU]

It gives squares a chance to chase; and squares love to chase.

[goblue12]

Handicapper Think Tank
Handicapping Theories, Systems, Tips, Tricks and Math

[specialronnie29]

Handicapper Think Tank
Handicapping Theories, Systems, Tips, Tricks and Math

this is a more relevant thread than other recent ones about a touts system and tailing posters..

[Thremp]

How can sharps be in "disagreement"?

Explain your theory that justifies this.

[benjy]

An interesting question.

Another potential answer - tempting bettors with full game action to take out hedges or middles that are negative EV

[specialronnie29]

How can sharps be in "disagreement"?

Explain your theory that justifies this.

re-read my post

[specialronnie29]

so far it seems the answer is that:

- the volume of square action + scalper action + game line bettors who panic and hedge at 2h (though this could be put into 'volume of square action") is enough to partially balance out the sharp action

i just see so many 2h where they post a line and it gets hit hard, the book moves it a couple of points and then action pretty much stops

not good for book

[YorkHunt]

Actually this is the way I see it...

If everyone loves Miami Hear -9 and they are playing the Warriors. The halftime score is Warriors 52-50. The halftime line will be set around -4 to -5 for the heat. Most of the time this is a square play. There are more people that chase on the same team they already wagered on than you think. Not to mention the wagerers that have not place a bet as of yet. Ironically, a good number of times, this is when you see the "dogs" win outright or lose only by a couple.

[Pancho sanza]

so far it seems the answer is that:

- the volume of square action + scalper action + game line bettors who panic and hedge at 2h (though this could be put into 'volume of square action") is enough to partially balance out the sharp action

i just see so many 2h where they post a line and it gets hit hard, the book moves it a couple of points and then action pretty much stops

not good for book

I suspect you've hit on some of the reasons why.

I also suspect a lot of "sharps" have different methods and could be on opposite sides.

As far as your second point, sometimes the line moves, but the move is in the books favour.

You see this with public teams usually losing big at half.

See Duke/St johns Sunday, squares were betting Duke 2h like there was no way they could possibly lose by 10+ right?

[SBRMAN23]

To screw you and make money that's what your trying to do off them.

[wrongturn]

2H lines have small limit compared to full game lines. So even they could be money losing for books, which I doubt, it is really not a big concern. Books always have much bigger stake on the line with full games.

[chemicalbrother]

which book?

i think that's a pretty important question.

[Thremp]

There are not two "sharp" sides on an event at the same number. Almost every definition includes some element of winning as being sharp and by definition atleast one of these is a losing position.

[Tomato]

Actually this is the way I see it...

If everyone loves Miami Hear -9 and they are playing the Warriors. The halftime score is Warriors 52-50. The halftime line will be set around -4 to -5 for the heat.

Tomato would like to play at your book.

[Brp27345]

Tomato would like to play at your book.

Heat -9... down 2 at the half... would result in a line somewhere between Heat -7 and -8 if I had to guess... done so much research on 2nd half lines I can predict the halftime lines better than the books...

so in summation... yea Tomato is right

[BettingWizard]

because the lower limits protect them against sharps and a lot of gamblers will overreact to a first half a lot of times.


I think 2nd halves are the best way to make money though

[suicidekings]

There are not two "sharp" sides on an event at the same number. Almost every definition includes some element of winning as being sharp and by definition atleast one of these is a losing position.

If that's the sticking point for you in this discussion maybe just replace it with "opinionated bettor with deep pockets". However I disagree that you will never see two successful professionals in strong opposition regarding the value on a particular number. One has to win and one has to lose. Doesn't mean they're not both long term winners.