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  • Justin7
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-31-06
    • 8577

    #1
    more mlb research
    If a team is projected to score 5 runs in a 9-inning game, their per inning scoring distribution might look like:
    0: 70.2%
    1: 15.7%
    2: 7.5%
    3: 3.6%
    4: 1.7%
    5: 1.3%

    This changes somewhat for home teams that are tied in the bottom of the 9th, or extra innings.

    Does anyone know what the scoring distribution for home teams in extra innings is? The game total and league (AL/NL) don't matter...
  • tomcowley
    SBR MVP
    • 10-01-07
    • 1129

    #2
    How's that water-carrying gig working out for you?
    Comment
    • Justin7
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 07-31-06
      • 8577

      #3
      I'm not quite sure what you mean, Tom.
      Comment
      • boondoggle
        SBR MVP
        • 09-29-10
        • 3014

        #4
        tom is indicating that it is futile.
        Last edited by boondoggle; 04-12-12, 01:43 AM.
        Comment
        • mathdotcom
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 03-24-08
          • 11689

          #5
          Again I can see why you'd like to think about these issues but even if someone provides the answer to your question, I cannot imagine how it would be useful in practice. Basically I think the gap between the conditional and unconditional expectations of these variables is huge.
          Comment
          • Justin7
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 07-31-06
            • 8577

            #6
            Originally posted by mathdotcom
            Again I can see why you'd like to think about these issues but even if someone provides the answer to your question, I cannot imagine how it would be useful in practice. Basically I think the gap between the conditional and unconditional expectations of these variables is huge.
            If you get this right, you can price alternate lines and live betting more efficiently.
            Comment
            • mathdotcom
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 03-24-08
              • 11689

              #7
              Yeah if you get it right, but if someone answered with such a distribution I don't see how you could properly use such aggregate numbers.
              I imagine at best it would just give you an idea whether a more thorough analysis would bear fruit.

              BOL
              Comment
              • Justin7
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 07-31-06
                • 8577

                #8
                Originally posted by mathdotcom
                Yeah if you get it right, but if someone answered with such a distribution I don't see how you could properly use such aggregate numbers.
                I imagine at best it would just give you an idea whether a more thorough analysis would bear fruit.

                BOL
                thanks mathy. I did get the distribution. I don't really want to go into the methods here, but you can continue this in pm if you like.
                Comment
                • MonkeyF0cker
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 06-12-07
                  • 12144

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Justin7
                  If you get this right, you can price alternate lines and live betting more efficiently.
                  No. You really can't.
                  Comment
                  • Justin7
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 07-31-06
                    • 8577

                    #10
                    Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker
                    No. You really can't.
                    Perhaps you can't.
                    Comment
                    • MonkeyF0cker
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 06-12-07
                      • 12144

                      #11
                      Right. It's your money.

                      I'm just glad there are people like you out there.

                      Good luck.
                      Comment
                      • Dark Horse
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 12-14-05
                        • 13764

                        #12
                        How can you judge something if you don't know the method? This may just be about a little piece of the puzzle, used to fill up small existing gaps. The underlying method may be far superior.

                        I wouldn't blindly trust data provided by others, however.
                        Comment
                        • mathdotcom
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 03-24-08
                          • 11689

                          #13
                          Because the unconditional distribution is pretty much useless as it ignores a number of extremely relevant factors that need to be conditioned on.
                          Comment
                          • Justin7
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 07-31-06
                            • 8577

                            #14
                            Originally posted by mathdotcom
                            Because the unconditional distribution is pretty much useless as it ignores a number of extremely relevant factors that need to be conditioned on.
                            But, it is a component. If you already know the scoring distribution in a given half-inning that will be played to a full 3-outs (given whatever factors you choose to use to determine that distribution), and you have a half-inning distribution for a bottom 9/extra innings tied situation, you can construct distributions for other scenarios.
                            Comment
                            • Dark Horse
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 12-14-05
                              • 13764

                              #15
                              nm.
                              Comment
                              • mathdotcom
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 03-24-08
                                • 11689

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Justin7
                                But, it is a component. If you already know the scoring distribution in a given half-inning that will be played to a full 3-outs (given whatever factors you choose to use to determine that distribution), and you have a half-inning distribution for a bottom 9/extra innings tied situation, you can construct distributions for other scenarios.
                                Bolded part is key, and those factors will probably give you a distribution much different than the one you asked for in the thread.
                                Comment
                                • mathdotcom
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 03-24-08
                                  • 11689

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Dark Horse
                                  nm.
                                  Are you related to Wrecktangle?
                                  Comment
                                  • Justin7
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 07-31-06
                                    • 8577

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by mathdotcom
                                    Bolded part is key, and those factors will probably give you a distribution much different than the one you asked for in the thread.
                                    Thanks for the warning. Those are obviously other components of the puzzle, but I already have those at a satisfactory level.
                                    Comment
                                    • Dark Horse
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 12-14-05
                                      • 13764

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by mathdotcom
                                      Are you related to Wrecktangle?
                                      I just can't make up my mind if it's funny or sad that kids with so much to learn have already convinced themselves they know it all. Forgot the name of the kid that lost his entire bankroll. One of those hot shots from the sect.
                                      Comment
                                      • mathdotcom
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 03-24-08
                                        • 11689

                                        #20
                                        Yeah obviously a real hot shot

                                        Just when I thought Wrecktangle was the only 'there is no wrong way to approach a question' type...

                                        There ARE right and wrong answers to stats questions.
                                        Comment
                                        • MonkeyF0cker
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 06-12-07
                                          • 12144

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Justin7
                                          Thanks for the warning. Those are obviously other components of the puzzle, but I already have those at a satisfactory level.
                                          This is such an absurd, posturing statement.
                                          Comment
                                          • Peregrine Stoop
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 10-23-09
                                            • 869

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker
                                            This is such an absurd, posturing statement.
                                            no wai!
                                            I'm sure he's got it all figured out.
                                            Comment
                                            • mathdotcom
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 03-24-08
                                              • 11689

                                              #23
                                              Sometimes I have trouble sleeping worrying about J7's BR
                                              Comment
                                              • doesnotcompute
                                                SBR Hustler
                                                • 05-02-11
                                                • 61

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by mathdotcom
                                                Sometimes I have trouble sleeping worrying about J7's BR
                                                You just made me shit my pants.
                                                Comment
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