[hhsilver]

I just put a post with the above title in the baseball forum that maybe I should have put here in the ThinkTank. Please take a look. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

[Vision]

Not on weekends, from my experience.

[Peep]

Every dog has his day, and so does every favorite.

So over 1000 trials/games, each team will win a certain number of games.

Bet the favorite everytime you feel that they will win more than the share that the odds imply.

For example, if a favorite is -150 you will break even if they win 60% of their games. If you feel they will win 70%, send the $$$ on in.

If you are right, you will have a good season. If not, oh well, enjoy the games...

[BuddyBear]

Not on weekends, from my experience.

it's a good thing you qualified it with "from my experience" because this is terrible adviice.

[hhsilver]

Thanks for your replies. I think the title i used was misleading.
What I am asking in the thread in the baseball forum is : Given that you have decided to bet a favorite and it is, say, 3 hours before game time, do you bet now anticipating worse odds later or do you wait hoping for better odds later.

Does anyone have data on how lines on favs move in that last few hours? I realize there is probably not a simple answer and it depends on many factors like pitchers , home teams, hot teams, popular teams, etc. I want to disregard all that if , in the long run, it is better to make one of the above choices.

Here is what I asked in the other thread :

If one likes a favorite , say in the -120 to -160 range, and it is 3 hours (or some other time if you think it is pertinent) before game time , without considering any other factors....

In general, is it better to :

a - bet now

b - wait until close to game time

c - no conclusion - (in the long run, lines change both ways about equally)

Also, same as above - is there a difference if the favorite is home or away?

Also, same as above - is there a difference based on direction of previous line moves?

Thanks for any info based on past data.

[jtuck]

I see what you are saying, and from my experience if you are betting a big favorite, more than -150 or so, the initial money comes in on the dogs. I try to get this line in the morning unless i have a big edge on the favorite at the current price and dont want to risk it going up. Late money almost always pours in on favorites as well. I'm no expert so take what i say with a grain of salt.

[Bullajami]

Never Mind!

[coldhardfacts]

Generally, odds on favorites get longer as the day progresses. But you have to take into account things like the opposing pitcher (a strong one or one who pitched well in his last outing will likely bring action on the dog) and the opposing team (crowd favorites like the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs always draw action, especially if they're on a semi-hot streak).

To get the best idea of which way the line will probably move, you should check out the consensus picks at sites like Sports Interaction and Wagerline.

[Steeltown]

Betting on a baseball game until you see the lineup card is suicide. Therefore you have to wait until about 1 hour before the game when the linep cards are out. Lets say you love the Cardinals. Whatever the price is. You bet it early and then see that Pujos is resting today. Do you still love the Cards? I would never bet the Cards if I knew Pujos wasnt in the lineup that day! Baseball is the one sport where you have to see the lineup before betting. Since I figured this out a few years back I have increased my winnings many folds. GL

[juuso]

Betting on a baseball game until you see the lineup card is suicide. Therefore you have to wait until about 1 hour before the game when the linep cards are out. Lets say you love the Cardinals. Whatever the price is. You bet it early and then see that Pujos is resting today. Do you still love the Cards? I would never bet the Cards if I knew Pujos wasnt in the lineup that day! Baseball is the one sport where you have to see the lineup before betting. Since I figured this out a few years back I have increased my winnings many folds. GL

I disagree. Lines are sharper 1 hour before start time. Betting overnight openers is the way to go. You can get better lines and value that way.

Keep in mind lineup chances and late scratches goes your way roughly as often as they go against you. It'll all even out in the long run.

[dogman]

H, see which way the line has moved since opening line and usually it will continue to move thruout the day in the same direction.