finding balance between played games and other data

[/\ox]

Hello,

I'm messing with NBA model, so I wonder what's more "important"/I should give more weight to - results and performance in the last 5 games (i.e current form) OR home/away, rest days, last 8 matches between teams, injuries and power ranking.

Tonight's Hornets vs Bobcats matchup Bobcats took lead gamewise over Hornets (because Bobcats' big win over Magic) but loses its momentum in light of other data (2-6 vs Hornets; Hornets are home, away record is 2-19 etc). For example, my formula's first part (last 5 games) gives 9,2 points to Bobcats and 6,3 points to Hornets, how I should treat other data now, compared to this first calculation.

Any directions would be very helpful, thank you!

[/\ox]

BUMP - my question sucks really hard?

[Dark Horse]

No, it doesn't. The answer is within your reach. It just requires work. Or did your really expect others to do that work for you? The question is the 1% inspiration. The 99% perspiration comes next.

[/\ox]

Dark Horse,

no I didn't expect someone to do my work. I'm working on it already and trying to figure out the right answers
Just asked for some directions or general guidelines and/or user's experiences.

ty!

/\ox

[mathdotcom]

No, it doesn't. The answer is within your reach. It just requires work. Or did your really expect others to do that work for you? The question is the 1% inspiration. The 99% perspiration comes next.

??? No it does not just require work

In general short term trends do not have any statistical significance, but you can try backtesting.

[Dark Horse]

Shorter term data have their place in weighted averages.

[Justin7]

Try different approaches, and test to see which one is more predictive.

The recent data will typically work better if there was an injury. If there was no injury, season-long works better. The best approach is to use season-long data, and find ways to adjust for injuries/roster changes.

[/\ox]

backtesting right now, thank you guys!