Formulas ..

[WILLIE]

I was teaching u what got me to win 26 out of 30 been very selective and patient. But u already know more than me. Anyway you r right. I'm an asshole. Going back to capping. Won't be here much. Good luck. Love u.

I must be missing something, I still have not seen 1 single example of anything that explains how you won even 1 game, much less 26 out of 30, oh great prognosticator.

[RickySteve]

[probettor1]

Sorry willie someone just posted a picture of both of us. I've been exposed.

[WILLIE]

WOW, this must have been taken at your last Family Reunion!!

[probettor1]

Willie I thought u were a monkey not a dunkey

[WILLIE]

Sorry willie someone just posted a picture of both of us. I've been exposed.

Thats what happens when we ASSume that the idea on this forum is to HELP each other, not try to belittle everyone.

[probettor1]

Willie you want to show every body here what an asshole I'm. Lets do this. I'll give u the lines of all the NBA games of 1 day including over and under lines before they are posted. If I miss 2 for more than 4 points I'll retire. But you have to do it first.

[WILLIE]

Monkey see monkey do.

[probettor1]

I like u Willie. Go to school son. You only are going to find here liars scammers trollers degenerates. My main goal is to help kids like u to see that. If u want to beat the casino you need unlimited amount of money. Go to school get a degree. Make 100k a year and come back. God bless u son.

[probettor1]

I did won 26 out of 30 but it only Was good to hook me and then lose more than I did.

[probettor1]

I love to expose scammers as I was scammed before by the most famous handicappers out there like wunderdog nite owl sports Spider web sports and some others. I was exposing jmathes. That's it. No beef with u.

[WILLIE]

To be very honest I've never found a great system for the NBA. The best starting point I've found is to use Statfox.com's avg. PF-PA records same as NFL and add 5 points for Home Court advantage.

Here's an example of 'let's see if it passes the smell test' that I sometimes use if at first glance the lineappears to be way off.
I like to reverse the playing site and see if I still like the game as much or more. (Just subtract -10 points to the away team to see what they would be if they were playing at home or add +10 to the home team to see what they would be if they were playing away.)

Hope this helps some. Like I said, these are juststarting points I like to employ.

[probettor1]

I love to expose scammers as I was scammed before by the most famous handicappers out there like wunderdog nite owl sports Spider web sports and some others. I was exposing jmathes. That's it. No beef with u.

[WILLIE]

I love to expose scammers as I was scammed before by the most famous handicappers out there like wunderdog nite owl sports Spider web sports and some others. I was exposing jmathes. That's it. No beef with u.

Like I told you in Jmathes thread, I just was taking a look at what types of bets he was employing for his picks. Honestdogsports had close to the same system. Their's was a 6 game chase that used mostly dogs on the first 4 or 5 levels. Check them out...oopps I'm sorry, you can't, they're no longer in business. I wonder why????

[probettor1]

Willie sorry adding 10 is not how it works. You need to work each team and take many other general average of all teams. There are many variables. Even resting days play different role in each different teams. There was a time that Denver would lose 60 % of all ATS when no rest for over 200 games. You have to see each detail and all details together.

[WILLIE]

Willie sorry adding 10 is not how it works. You need to work each team and take many other general average of all teams. There are many variables. Even resting days play different role in each different teams. There was a time that Denver would lose 60 % of all ATS when no rest for over 200 games. You have to see each detail and all details together.

Once again, you did NOT read the post correctly. Here is an example from tonight's game of what I meant.

Miami -4.5
Philadelphia

If you substract 10 more points to Miami then that means they would be -14.5 if this contest were in Miami. So based on that, be it right or wrong, I would have to choose Philadelphia + 4.5.

[probettor1]

Willie, i'm telling you this is not how stats works. You cant come with a fix number for every team. You might try it. But I suggest you to bet the minimum. You have to treat every team individually. Some teams are very bad away and unbeatable at home some other are not. New Orleans(nfl) for example were the best bet of the season playing at home, they cover the last 9 games played at home, winning for a hugh difference, and away they only cover 4 out of 9. You cant use a a cold(fix) number when working with stats.

[AlwaysDrawing]

A++ HTT thread. Would read.

[WILLIE]

A++ HTT thread. Would read.

????

[WILLIE]

Willie, i'm telling you this is not how stats works. You cant come with a fix number for every team. You might try it. But I suggest you to bet the minimum. You have to treat every team individually. Some teams are very bad away and unbeatable at home some other are not. New Orleans(nfl) for example were the best bet of the season playing at home, they cover the last 9 games played at home, winning for a hugh difference, and away they only cover 4 out of 9. You cant use a a cold(fix) number when working with stats.

Please, start reading ALL of someone's post. here is what I said:

To be very honest I've never found a great system for the NBA. The best starting point I've found is to use Statfox.com's avg. PF-PA records same as NFL and add 5 points for Home Court advantage.

Here's an example of 'let's see if it passes the smell test' that I sometimes use if at first glance the lineappears to be way off.
I like to reverse the playing site and see if I still like the game as much or more. (Just subtract -10 points to the away team to see what they would be if they were playing at home or add +10 to the home team to see what they would be if they were playing away.)

Hope this helps some. Like I said, these are just starting points I like to employ.

[probettor1]

HTT In mathematical logic and computer science, homotopy type theory (HoTT) attempts to give an account of the semantics of intensional type theory using the framework of (abstract) homotopy theory, in particular Quillen model categories and weak factorization systems. Conversely, intensional type theory forms a logic (internal language) for homotopy theory.

He was mocking us anyway.

[probettor1]

Ok Willie, I get it. I would like to give you my impresion on miami tonight but I only work injuries, overs and unders. Last night Miami players were to tired. They are a good team and I think they will come back after having a bad streak.

[WILLIE]

It amazes me that the ones that appear that they're so bright, by the advanced mathematics that they exude on this forum, have so little sympathy or understanding for their fellow man. It was my impression that this forum was for the ones with the knowledge to pass it on to the ones that were trying to aquire a better understanding of sports betting etc. But once again, it appears that the snotty nose kids just want to thumb their noses at everyone.

[probettor1]

Dont be so sensitive Willie.
I took another look at miami tonight, **** the line has been pushed against them, philadelfia has been a much better team at home that miami away but wade and lebron has been injured in many games, that change a few stuff. It change the fact that it is dangerous to bet vs miami and the fact that philad has been a better team at home make the line pretty fair. Miami might want this game more than phila. 99% of the games have the line where it should be. This is no exception in my system.

[probettor1]

Willie every time I try to get into analysis of math and stats of any game you just get mad at something. Dont take things personally. Is just a freaking forum.

[WendysRox]

To the OP, google "baseball pythagorean formula." That should at least get you a couple days of stuff to read about baseball formulas. I'll neither endorse nor dismiss the validity of anything you read, obviously. But, it should be educational none-the-less.

Unfortunately, like someone said earlier, you'll never find a publicly available winning predictive formula. It's simply too valuable, in my opinion. It's like starting a soda business and asking if anyone has coca-cola's formula.

[WendysRox]

If this formula is really useful to predict a game outcome please ban me from the forum. I'm retarded.

You get a coin for making me laugh.

[probettor1]

There is not such a magic formula. There are just too many variable. If there were all the time the same player in same conditions the formula ... a mathematician will figure it out in 20 min

[TomG]

this is confusing. i keep giving a formula to calculate runline and puckline odds but willie keeps telling me i'm wrong because i did not give saturday's nba point spread odds.

[WILLIE]

I call BS on this one. Show some examples by giving us Saturday's line before it's released just from the schedule. You noticed I gave you a day or two to do the calculations.

<BR><BR>
It has everything to do with this thread and to TomG's post. I'm not saying he's not right. I just said I didn't believe he was right, and asked for an example to prove that he was right. And as you see, he's offered no kind of response at all. At the moment I still stand by my B.S. statement.

I'd love to find out how they set the opening line, or at least a close resemblence. Because I surely don't know how they figure it in Hockey or Baseball.

I CAN show how( or close to it at least) they set opening lines for NFL. And I just thought he might know how they figured Baseball and Hockey. But evidently not.

Probetter1, since you are SO smart, why don't you explain....
Hi I was wondering if someone can help me out with this, im searching for easy and fast formulas, on how to create Run Lines and/or Puck lines, how to create the Team Totals for NHL and MLB.


And if there is an easy formula to calculate halves times. Sorry if this questions were already on a different post but i being checking and reading and didnt see that.

Afterall, that WAS the topic of the thread.

<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR> &lt;BR&gt;&lt;BR&gt;

As you can see I never said ANYTHING about the NBA. I would like to see what your predicted lines are for the NHL on Sunday now and a simply as you can be explaination at how you arrived at that number. I don't expect you to be exactly right on all of them, just close on most and not far away on the others. I CAN do it for NFL after the 4th week of the season and I CAN explain how I arrived at that number.

[probettor1]

Did you see Miami 84 phil 78 with Miami -4 the winning marging only 2 point. When you get a margin of 1 or 2 there is a lot of luck involved. It mean the line was in the zone.

[WILLIE]

Did you see Miami 84 phil 78 with Miami -4 the winning marging only 2 point. When you get a margin of 1 or 2 there is a lot of luck involved. It mean the line was in the zone.

Yes it was a loser for the + 4 1/2.

[RickySteve]

this is confusing. i keep giving a formula to calculate runline and puckline odds but willie keeps telling me i'm wrong because i did not give saturday's nba point spread odds.

He's showing you The Middle Way but you're just never going to get it, Tommy.

[probettor1]

NHL and baseball some time offer great juice. Nba is checked to the last detail by the odds maker. I rather do NCAA bb

[probettor1]

A word I hate: probable and ? For injuries. Tricky