BTCL and Stale Lines

[flsaders85]

Let's say you find five bets with stale lines compared to the no-vig Pinny closer.

Bet A - 2 cent advantage
Bet B - 3 cent advantage
Bet C - 4 cent advantage
Bet D - 5 cent advantage
Bet E - 6 cent advantage

Hypothetically, which option would you pick if you had five entries in a survivor contest? Bet each game individually? Put all 5 on Bet E? Combo? How would you approach this?


Thanks.

[allin1]

You have an edge on all of them but that doesn't guarantee you the outcome you are betting on. I would say each game individually and definitely no combo

[flsaders85]

You're right. It's not guaranteed, but would optimal game theory say to put all 5 selections on the best edge?

[LVHerbie]

In a contest which pick offers a minuscule edge over another would be one of my last considerations...

For example, ignoring your original question of how to divide up your selections, in a survivor contest if I thought I had a 6 cents advantage with option 6 but a decent percentage of my opponents where also going to be on it while only a few would choose the 5 cent edge of the fifth option then it would be my first choice.

I'm not sure if you can recycle teams or not (like typically is the case in NFL survivor contests) but if so not getting locked out possible better future opportunities (especially those in very imminent future) is also significantly more important then the slightly increased edge of your current selection.

Addressing your original question of how to divide up your selections I would try and base my these decisions on things like I listed above (being more willing to gamble on one game in multiple entries if I thought I had a big edge OVER MY OPPONENTS with a given pick and scatter my plays with selections where my edge is less (or even negative) against them) and, if stale numbers leaning against pinnacle's number is all I had to base my selections on, I probably be spreading them over as many choices as possible.