Hi all,
I'm backtesting a horse-racing model. There is a big difference in results between backing multiway (using Ganchrow's formula from ages ago) compared to simply laying the single biggest overlay. Intuitively it seems to be the former should be no worse as one can lay using multiple back bets, and probably should be better as one can fine-tune the expected utility better.
However I'm finding that, with some simple filtering on odds ranges and overlays, that the opposite seems to be true and simply laying the biggest overlay is more profitable. Any thoughts on the matter?
I'm backtesting a horse-racing model. There is a big difference in results between backing multiway (using Ganchrow's formula from ages ago) compared to simply laying the single biggest overlay. Intuitively it seems to be the former should be no worse as one can lay using multiple back bets, and probably should be better as one can fine-tune the expected utility better.
However I'm finding that, with some simple filtering on odds ranges and overlays, that the opposite seems to be true and simply laying the biggest overlay is more profitable. Any thoughts on the matter?