Hey guys, I've been trying to wrap my brain around something that I've heard on more than one occasion but haven't been successful grasping it as of yet, so I'm hoping someone else may be able to simplify (or debunk?) this theory for me so I can understand it a little better.
Strictly talking football here... mostly NFL but also NCAA... I've heard various people in the industry mention that if you can beat the closing number by even a half point that it is a "good" bet (in my mind that means it's +EV).
Now I know that if you can beat a sharp book's closer (let's say Pinny) by even a half point on the numbers of 3, 7, or 10 then it's definitely a +EV bet, but I've also heard some say the same thing about other semi-key numbers such as 4 and 6.
Let's use 3 in the NFL for an example to start. If Pinny's closer is -3 (assuming normal juice for simplification), that means there's a 10% chance of a push (approximates used for simplification), a 45% chance to win, and a 45% chance to lose (using SBR's half point calculator for reference). If you can find an off market +3.5, you then swing the bet to 55% win 45% loss, which is clearly +EV since it's higher than the BE% of 52.4.
However, when using 4, for example, you would have a 48.5% of winning, 48.5% chance of losing, and a 3% chance to push if you lay the -4. If you can find a -3.5, you would then swing it to 51.5% chance of winning & 48.5% chance of losing, which is less than the BE% of 52.4, so that to me means it's still a -EV bet. (correct?)
The way I see it, you would need to at least gain 1 full point in order to make this a profitable bet (such as taking +7 when the market is +6), so I'm wondering why some consider -3.5 ticket when the market is -4 a good (+EV) bet in the absence of any other information or opinions? Perhaps our definitions of a "good" bet differ? Maybe laying the -3.5 helps to come back and go for a middle later (although laying -3.5 and taking +4.5 is not a profitable middle at -110).
Any thoughts? Just trying to understand this a little bit better. Thanks in advance for your input.
Strictly talking football here... mostly NFL but also NCAA... I've heard various people in the industry mention that if you can beat the closing number by even a half point that it is a "good" bet (in my mind that means it's +EV).
Now I know that if you can beat a sharp book's closer (let's say Pinny) by even a half point on the numbers of 3, 7, or 10 then it's definitely a +EV bet, but I've also heard some say the same thing about other semi-key numbers such as 4 and 6.
Let's use 3 in the NFL for an example to start. If Pinny's closer is -3 (assuming normal juice for simplification), that means there's a 10% chance of a push (approximates used for simplification), a 45% chance to win, and a 45% chance to lose (using SBR's half point calculator for reference). If you can find an off market +3.5, you then swing the bet to 55% win 45% loss, which is clearly +EV since it's higher than the BE% of 52.4.
However, when using 4, for example, you would have a 48.5% of winning, 48.5% chance of losing, and a 3% chance to push if you lay the -4. If you can find a -3.5, you would then swing it to 51.5% chance of winning & 48.5% chance of losing, which is less than the BE% of 52.4, so that to me means it's still a -EV bet. (correct?)
The way I see it, you would need to at least gain 1 full point in order to make this a profitable bet (such as taking +7 when the market is +6), so I'm wondering why some consider -3.5 ticket when the market is -4 a good (+EV) bet in the absence of any other information or opinions? Perhaps our definitions of a "good" bet differ? Maybe laying the -3.5 helps to come back and go for a middle later (although laying -3.5 and taking +4.5 is not a profitable middle at -110).
Any thoughts? Just trying to understand this a little bit better. Thanks in advance for your input.
. I am not sure if scalpers "handicap" games, but from a BTCL perspective, your scenario still comes down to whether or not you think the Pinny line will move further, as edge is judged against the closing line. In other words, go for the mid-day soft side if you cap the Pinny line at that time to be about where you expect it to close (or you think it will continue to move away from the soft side), NOT merely because the scalp exists. And if you cap the line to be closer to the soft line, you are actually predicting that the pinny line will move that way and the scalp will go away so pass on it (assuming your capping method is solid).