Sports not Gaussian?

[luegofuego]

From its pre 2008 high to the its lowest point during 2009 the Dow Jones shed approximately 50%. My sports betting bankroll has dropped over 40% in the space of 3 weeks before and I have had several swings of around 30%. Even greater movement on the up side.

Your losing streak is still the result of a series of highly quantifiable, even expected, events. The credit crunch was in essence the result of one single poorly modelled variable. It's certainly imaginable the financial system hasn't even seen a really really bad "downswing" yet. Imagine several credit derivative collapse type events simultaneously chained together - extremistan, indeed.