I got a little excited with all the line movement in the OU/UConn game and even though I really wanted to take OU, the late money came in and pushed it off -14 before I had a chance to make my real bet on it. I attempted the following though, hoping to get through some rollover and maybe side the game if the line was tight.
$165 to win $150 on OU -14 (-110)
$100 to win $91 on OU -16 (-110)
$155 to win $140 on UConn +15 (-110)
$100 to win $91 on UConn +17 (-110)
As I said, part of this is just doing rollover/hedging, but just how bad of -EV do these plays work out to?
OU wins by less than 14 = -$35
OU wins by 14 = +$131
OU wins by 15 = +$141 OU wins by 16 = +86 OU wins by 17 = +86 OU wins by 18+ = -$14
I figure I'm averaging a $25 bet to win $111 that the game lands between 14-17. So 4.5:1 on the game landing 14-17. That's a terrible bet.
Is what I did really as bad as those odds, or is there anything to justify what I did aside from "it gets through $500 worth of rollover at places where I took good bonuses"?
check out the Half Point Calculator in the tools, top of HTT. also search tank for "middle" or "middles" and it will give you the maths to do this.
May i suggest though that you do not bet both sides of a game for rollover at the same bookies. check out free-easy-money (or similar) for arbs and near arb opportunities with betfair or other exchanges.
BOL
No worries, I know not to do it at the same place.
I have active accounts at 10 different books with rollovers still pending at 7 of them. I have no problem finding an opposite location to grab the other side at.
change all odds to implied % (can use the odds converter - easy)
using the closer, and for each and the HPC add up all the push % between your points. that will give you something to work with for all the possible outcomes.
if you are having problems then post again and i'll look at your maths for you.
BOL
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How bad an idea was this? Or was it a good idea?
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