[That Foreign Guy]

Well, a book that I have been pounding has limited me to $10 bets. This is obviously inconvenient as I would like to continue betting these lines for fun and profit (mostly for profit).

I'm still allowed to play parlays, so my plan to wring the last bits of value out of their lazy linemaker is as follows, please let me know if I screwed anything up:

Make a list of all the games I want to bet, how much I want to bet on them, and my perceived edge.

Sort the list from most valuable to least valuable.

Starting at the top, play two team parlays counting {amount bet * other bet's odds** as the amount I have "bet" on the team (ie the amount I would be betting if the other half of the parlay wins).

Continue to place parlays until I have "bet" the amount I wanted on each team.


An example might make it clearer (10 max, +100 odds)

Bet Amount wanted

A 100
B 50
C 30
D 10

I would bet:

AB 10

Leaving me

A 80
B 30
C 30
D 10

Then I bet AC 10, and AD 5 (because I only want 10 of exposure on D) and move on to B. If I still have capacity left I start betting three team parlays if there are any.

Am I over complicating things? I'll have to see how complicated this is to do I guess.

More importantly, is this the right way to get the right amount of exposure? It's not as simple as go somewhere else because lines often aren't available elsewhere.

Assume no risk of them stealing my money, shutting me down is the worst they can do.

[Data]

Use Ganchrow's Simple Kelly spreadsheet, "generic kelly.xls". Set "Min Parlay Size" to 2.

[davidchong]

what site limited u?

[That Foreign Guy]

Thanks Data(and Ganch obviously if you're still lurking). Will have to play with it more but looks like exactly what I need.

David - One of the high street (UK) bookies. Unfortunately there's no branch near me or I'd try betting in person.