[SparJMU]

I apologize in advance if this is a dumb question..........

So last night I was doing my standard procedure of shopping lines for the bowl game hoping to find some arbitrage/middle opportunities. A local had Southern Miss +3, and Matchbook had Louisville -2.5 (+104) or Louisville -3 (+120).

I locked in $550 to win $500 with the local, and was trying to determine the highest EV between my two Louisville options. Really the only question I am asking here, is how do I determine the probability that Louisville is going to win by exactly 3. Using a push chart I determined 6%, but is that correct? Or is it a 3% chance that Lousville wins by 3 and a 3% chance that Southern Miss wins by 3? Like I said, stupid question but something is not clicking for me.

Anyway, using 6% push rate I came to the following numbers.......

Betting the -2.5 line, 6% push rate, I came to an ROI of 1.6%.
Betting the -3 line, 6% push rate, I came to an ROI of 2.1%.

So based on my calculation, and with the total as high as 60, and with my insecurity as to whether I should even be using a push rate as high as 6%, I convinced myself that taking the Lousivlle -3 line was my smartest investment, which obviously failed miserably for me.

Feedback?

[SparJMU]

Any thoughts on this?

6% vs. 3%?

[sharpcat]

just over 6% of the time the favorite wins by exactly 3.

[mminkovski]

the push probability is about 6%
did you middle it with matchbook or just took the -3 at +120 to lock a small profit?

[SparJMU]

I took the -3 because my EV calculation told me that had a higher return. Because of the push I actually had to pay $50 to my local and I ended uo losing money. Extremely disappointing evening.

[Peregrine Stoop]

yeehaaa! forget arbz/middlez
go for it like you mean it