Analyzing a seemingly simple prop

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • samserif
    SBR Hustler
    • 09-19-11
    • 63

    #1
    Analyzing a seemingly simple prop
    I spotted a prop yesterday that seemed simple to analyze and almost too good to be true. I ended up winning but the skeptic in me says that it's likely I missed something. I'd appreciate a critique of my reasoning on the following. If I got it right, well, cool -- others might find this post useful.

    The book was offering this: "First team to receive a penalty: Alabama -115 / LSU -115". This immediately caught my eye because it seemed very unlikely that both teams commit penalties at the exact same rate. I checked their season records and it turned out that Alabama averaged something like 3.9 penalties per game while LSU averaged 6.25. I threw out the handful of non-FBS opponents and the ratio was basically the same. I didn't compute the variance but it seemed small, and their head-to-head matchup penalties of Alabama=6, LSU=7 didn't seem far out of line (and more importantly, it preserved the ordering).

    This told me that if both teams commit their average number of penalties, about 62% will belong to LSU. I found the effective fair odds of the favorite by looking at the ratio, 6.25/3.9 = 1.6, then by doing the usual conversion to get -160. A -115 payout for fair odds of -160 seemed terrific. Too good, actually.

    Am I missing anything?
    Last edited by samserif; 01-10-12, 12:09 PM. Reason: fixed a minor typo
  • FourLengthsClear
    SBR MVP
    • 12-29-10
    • 3808

    #2
    Would you happen to know the total penalties received by home teams vs road teams this season and historically in NCAAF?

    I know that yesterday's game was nominally on a neutral field but some account would need to be taken of a 70/30 fan split if that is a significant factor on penalties incurred.
    Comment
    • samserif
      SBR Hustler
      • 09-19-11
      • 63

      #3
      Excellent point, thanks! No, I didn't think to check location but doing so would make sense.
      Comment
      • YouMama
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 01-04-12
        • 727

        #4
        which team will commit a penalty first? ... are the majority of the penalties commited by each team offensive or defensive? then the coin flip has influence ...

        This would be my perfect scenario ... A big playoff game, in a loud stadium, with a home team that always elects to defend at the begining of the game and has a well diciplined defense, but allows for long drives vs a opponent w a high number of false start penalties but can move the ball at a decent pace
        Last edited by YouMama; 01-10-12, 01:52 PM.
        Comment
        SBR Contests
        Collapse
        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
        Collapse
        Working...