RISK or TO WIN % of Bankroll Long-Term?

[jolmscheid]

I have a quick question that I have been trying to find the answer for with no real conclusion that I can find: If I have an edge over the books, and want to flat bet each play, is it better to RISK X% per game or play TO WIN X% per game if I play odds ranging from -175 to +250?

I assume RISKING X% would avoid the ups and downs a little more???

I would really appreciate some insight on this..thanks guys!

[jolmscheid]

Look forward to any insight offered..

[donjuan]

This is the equivalent of saying, I could have sex with a supermodel, but I'm going to go for a 5 or a 6 instead. Which should one should I choose? Flat betting to win is the 6.

[jolmscheid]

This is the equivalent of saying, I could have sex with a supermodel, but I'm going to go for a 5 or a 6 instead. Which should one should I choose? Flat betting to win is the 6.

Thanks Don...so I should play TO WIN X amount on favs and dogs? So if my unit size is $50, I should play TO WIN $50 on dogs and favs?

Thanks!

[LT Profits]

Thanks Don...so I should play TO WIN X amount on favs and dogs? So if my unit size is $50, I should play TO WIN $50 on dogs and favs?

Thanks!

Yeah, in lieu of Kelly, flat betting TO WIN a reasonable percentage (2-3%) of BR is probably the next best option (fractional Kelly is 1A). By betting TO WIN, you minimize your exposure when betting on underdogs.

[jolmscheid]

Thanks LT...I appreciate your reply...and would one re-calculate their unit size at say + / - 25% in bankroll?

[FourLengthsClear]

Fwiw, the below is the response I gave to jolmsheid via PM.



As mentioned in the previous thread where he asked this question though, I agree with donjuan. The aim should be to graduate from aiming to mitigate variance to maximising growth.