[ClimbSomeRocks]

I'm finally out of a terrible losing streak I was on where I dropped 40 units in less than a week. Now I've hit a positive streak (call it variance if you want) and I'm dominating. I've won my last 6 straight, with the games playing out almost exactly as I had predicted. and 8-3 on the NFL weekend.

Should I cap the same way I have been capping and up my unit, or just stick with my current unit size and continue to slowly rebuild my bankroll?

On a side note, I've hit 4 straight IF bets. Can anyone explain a way that these IF bets could be -EV? Obviously I'd stop making them in that case, however I feel that the way I'm playing them is helping me greatly. The only potential -EV I see of an IF bet is when the first game loses and the 2nd wins. In that scenario it would have been better to play the game straight up. However, on the flip side, if the first bet loses, my bankroll drops and I may not want to make that play.

Seems like IF bets are great for streaks, The reason being, If you win 4 straight (2 normal bets and 2 if bets) you get rewarded by putting less of your actual bankroll on the table, and still obtaining the benefit of the wins. On the flip side, if you lose 4 straight, you would only lose the first two bets and the 2nd bets would be cancelled. Someone please give me insight on this topic. I understand I'll be shooting myself in the foot if the first bet loses and the 2nd 'would have' won, but I feel that the above scenario will happen the same percentage of the time that I Win the first and lose the 2nd.

[ThaddeusB]

I'm finally out of a terrible losing streak I was on where I dropped 40 units in less than a week. Now I've hit a positive streak (call it variance if you want) and I'm dominating. I've won my last 6 straight, with the games playing out almost exactly as I had predicted. and 8-3 on the NFL weekend.

Should I cap the same way I have been capping and up my unit, or just stick with my current unit size and continue to slowly rebuild my bankroll?

Over betting your bankroll will greatly increase your chances of disaster even if you have a significant edge. In the long run, you are far better off sticking to a bet size smaller than your historical edge (e.g. 3% historic edge -> 2% of bankroll unit size). Or if you can reasonably estimate your varying edge per game, use Kelly.

On a side note, I've hit 4 straight IF bets. Can anyone explain a way that these IF bets could be -EV? Obviously I'd stop making them in that case, however I feel that the way I'm playing them is helping me greatly. The only potential -EV I see of an IF bet is when the first game loses and the 2nd wins. In that scenario it would have been better to play the game straight up. However, on the flip side, if the first bet loses, my bankroll drops and I may not want to make that play.

Seems like IF bets are great for streaks, The reason being, If you win 4 straight (2 normal bets and 2 if bets) you get rewarded by putting less of your actual bankroll on the table, and still obtaining the benefit of the wins. On the flip side, if you lose 4 straight, you would only lose the first two bets and the 2nd bets would be cancelled. Someone please give me insight on this topic. I understand I'll be shooting myself in the foot if the first bet loses and the 2nd 'would have' won, but I feel that the above scenario will happen the same percentage of the time that I Win the first and lose the 2nd.

If you have a positive edge, you are better off not using if bets. (If you have a negative edge, the opposite is true.) The reason is the win you loose is worth slightly more than the loss you avoid.

Let's say you can bet on two coin flips at +110. Using 1/1 unit if bets you'd hit:

W-W 25%: +2.2
W-L 25%: +.1
L-x 50%: -1

E= 2.2*.25+.1*.25-1*.5=+0.075

Straight up you'd hit:
W-W 25%: +2.2
W-L or L-W 50%: +.1
L-L 50%: -2

E= 2.2*.25+.1*.5-2*.25=+0.1

[That Foreign Guy]

Ahh but you'd want to bet more on the second one if the first one comes in if you're Kellying.

You could do this with IF bets if you're offline.

Bet the Kelly fraction of your bankroll after losing the first bet on both.

Bet the difference between that and your current Kelly unit on the first event. IF bet the difference between the initial bet and the Kelly unit of the bankroll after winning the first bet.

Kelly bet is $455 with a 10k BR. but $434 with a $9545 bankroll and $477 with a $10,500 bankroll.

Your bet sizes would be:

$434 on both.

IF bet $21 on event one $43 on event two

This means you're betting $455 on event one and then either $434 or $477 on event two depending on whether you win event one or not (the Kelly fraction of the new bankroll).

I think this allows for Kelly staking without waiting for the result of each non simultaneous bet so presumably it maximises EG?

[tomcowley]

But what if you push?

[That Foreign Guy]

Then you're underbetting slightly.

Best I can think of (assuming handicap draw is just a soccer thing is you'd need to do a token IF bet for a penny on both alternate half point lines surrounding the pointspread.

IF A+3.5 and B-2.5 then event2 $21

For moneyline bets (assuming they settle regulation time only) you'd make a 0.01 IF bet on the game going to overtime with then $21 on event2.

[dialup_king]

I'm finally out of a terrible losing streak I was on where I dropped 40 units in less than a week. Now I've hit a positive streak (call it variance if you want) and I'm dominating. I've won my last 6 straight, with the games playing out almost exactly as I had predicted. and 8-3 on the NFL weekend.

Should I cap the same way I have been capping and up my unit, or just stick with my current unit size and continue to slowly rebuild my bankroll?

.

I wouldn't up the unit size just because of the streak.