Interesting Prop from Aussie Book

[Duff85]

Just saw this market listed with a book I use.

First To Occur 2012:
Bet Win odds
Green Bay win Super Bowl (Feb) +150
France win 6-Nations Rugby (Mar) +300
McIlroy win US Masters (Apr) +1800
Barca win Champs League (May) +450
Spain win Euro 2012 (Jul) +1000
Djokovic win Wimbledon (Jul) +1000
Evans win Tour de France (Jul) +4000
Bolt win Olympic 100m Gold (Aug) +800
Collingwood win AFL Flag (Sep) +6600
India win T20 WorldCup (Oct) +10000
None Of These Occur 2012 +1000


Be prepared to laugh at my math on this. My thoughts are that you would take the probability of each occurring individually and then multiply by the chances of each event before it not occurring. So using the first two events as an example:

Say we believe Green Bay is a 31.89% chance of winning the Super Bowl (feel free to disagree with the probability, but looking at the process). We believe that France is 33.14% chance of winning the Six Nations Rugby Tournament.

To work out the probability of France being the winning bet in this prop, we would need to multiply the chance of Green Bay not winning the Super Bowl (68.11%) with the chance of France winning the Six Nations (33.14%)

.6811 * .3314 = .2257

So France is a 22.57% chance of being the first event to occur in 2012.

Which makes them a poor value wager for this prop.

Sound thinking or did I just give the math guys a bit of a laugh?

[FourLengthsClear]

Sound thinking.

[The Hot Pepper]

Barca will win the Champions League again...

[jjgold]

Barca will win the Champions League again...

[Jaug]

Barca will win the Champions League again...

Maybe but take a look at that price again, its ridiculously













bad.

[FourLengthsClear]

Barca will win the Champions League again...

If you think that then you bet it on a straight forward futures prop (+162 at Betfair).
The prop bet shown by the OP has no value for any of the options listed (and that is an understatement).

[VegasInsider]

Barca to win the CL first would be my bet...even without Villa. I have no idea about France and rugby, so that kind of scares me. Bolt to win gold is almost a certainty, but I don't think it'll get that far between Barca, Spain and Joker at Wimbledon.

[Duff85]

Sound thinking.

Thanks for the reply. The 131% over-round is going to make it a difficult prop to beat if their prices are remotely set within the range that they should be. The only one I thought could be close - is Spain to win Euro - but I didn't really have reliable numbers to estimate all of the probabilities. A mistake on any of the earlier numbers throws all of the dependent numbers out too.

[donjuan]

As 4LC said, sound thinking but usually markets like this have such high vig that they have to be really incompetent to mess it up. LOL at the rest of the thread.

[ACoochy]

Barca will win the Champions League again...

Sorry pal my $$$ on RM....GL

[TodayIsForgotten]

maybe a barca/bolt double-play.

[Ace_of_Spades]

Hard for teams to win the CL twice in a row. Who last did it in the ERA we play in now?

[davidchong]

what is the odd for Green Bay to win the Super Bowl?

[FourLengthsClear]

what is the odd for Green Bay to win the Super Bowl?

Market level is circa +200 but +220 is available.

[davidchong]

Market level is circa +200 but +220 is available.

Thanks, then Aussie Books is telling us that Green Bay will win the Super Bowl.

[skrtelfan]

No, Aussie Books are telling you that they charge high vig. If the market price on Barca to win the CL is +170, and I deal Barca to win the CL at +100, it doesn't mean I think Barca will win the CL, it means I'm charging an extremely high vig.

[That Foreign Guy]

Interesting prop, your math seems right, but I doubt any of these have value even compared to a straightforward futures bet on the item, you may get lucky though.

[Gemoka]

collingwood are +375 favs, +6600 would look good shame about 3 or 4 will have happened by then