Margin of Error on Handicap

[BeachIncome]

I've been working on handicapping the player prop bets over at bodog for the last couple weeks. Specifically, I have been working on the bet "who will score more points" for a given game.

I just finished calculating the handicap for scoring points at home vs scoring away using the top 240 scorers for the past 3 seasons and finding the average difference between points per game overall and points per game for both home and away.

Now, to back-check this I applied my handicapped value to the overall points per game for these same players to calculate my handicapped p/g for both home and away. Then I compared these numbers against the actual points per game home and away and found the average difference. Essentially, I am finding the average margin of error between my handicapped points per game for both home and away and the actual results. My average % difference for Home was -0.14% and 0.19% for away. This seems incredibly low which would mean my handicap is extremely accurate. Am I right in thinking this?

[tukkk]

1) to be clear, is your % diff = 1-(your average margin of error/market average margin of error)
2) number of samples?

[BeachIncome]

1) my % difference for home points is: **[(1+handicapped %)*overall points per game] - actual home points per game**/ actual home points per game

2) 3 * 240 = 720

[tukkk]

could you explain the 1+handicapped % part
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it seems youre only comparing yourself to actual results and those %-s dont help you that much
it doesnt help you knowing whether you are x number or y number worse than the actual results
you need to compare your differences against the market, because that is what youre competing against

[scratbandit]

ouch my head hurts .... lol

[BeachIncome]

could you explain the 1+handicapped % part
---
it seems youre only comparing yourself to actual results and those %-s dont help you that much
it doesnt help you knowing whether you are x number or y number worse than the actual results
you need to compare your differences against the market, because that is what youre competing against

I am just applying the handicap to the overall points. For example if this number is 9% or 0.09, this means that if I have a players points per game, I can apply 1+0.09 and multiply by overall points per game to get HOME points per game.

[BeachIncome]

In case people don't understand, this is just one variable that will be used. I just want to know how accurate this handicap is.

[tukkk]

with given information you can only compare your difference vs difference without the 1+handicap part
however i dont see what practical use this has

[brandonlewis]

pretty intense stuff, i'll have to look over this again