[smartbets]

If I am pricing a money line that is offered at -120, and assuming I did the proper calculations and I think the line should be -300, how would I calculate what my win probability, or edge is on this, so I can size my wajor accordingly using the Kelly Calculator?

would I use this formula:

win percentage = ml / (ml -100)

WP = -120 / (-300 -100)

WP = -120 / -400

W = .30

so is my win percentage 70% for this?

thanks

[Data]

-300 is the same as decimal 1.333... (1+100/300) which, in turn, pun intended, 1/1.333..., makes 0.75 or 75%, your calculated winning probability.

[Toples]

you think -300 and line is -120 ???
WOW!

If one could get -120 line for -140 odds, there'd be some serious money

[subs]

hi smartbets

just in case you do not have this, here is some excel functions Mr granchow posted a while back. mostly it is too much for me but it may help you here, or another time. anyway room to grow, so to speak.

if your numbers are not just an example but for real then something i read recently somewhere comes to mind: if you are the only guy pissing into the wind then you are sure to be wrong. yea i know, not exactly a classic but you get my drift...

BOL

[smartbets]

thanks data

thanks subs - those were the odds i got for the prop i was telling you about last night - hope you got that in

toples - these discrepencies dont come up often, but that was what i got for the odds on a prop i priced out last night after adjusting/normalizing for pace and a few other factors - and i figured it at 70% not 75%, so my edge was even better then i thought