[RickySteve]

I would file you under 'complete retardation'.

[saratoga1927]

i don't believe the rims are the same tightness therefore the ball bounces off it differently which not only has an affect on shots but rebounds as well (3 pointers are probably even more affected by the tightness or lack thereof) nor do i believe the ball bounces the same on every floor. some courts are sweat boxes like the old garden in boston. can't believe all courts don't have other differences as well.

[Dark Horse]

I would file you under 'complete retardation'.

Very thoughtful of you.

I put you out with the trash ages ago. You and your little sect.

[rfr3sh]

Dark Horse,
I was at an NBA Game today, and I observed the home court advantage clear at the beginning of the game, however during the late 2nd and 3rd quarter there was not much fan involvement, however when the 4th quarter started up even though the raptors were down double digits the fans were as active as they were in the first. just an observation however

[sideloaded]

Ricky Steve your the biggest douche on SBR right ahead of monkeyf0cker.

[onlooker]

I'm sure lighting, background, floor, rims and so on aren't the same at every NBA court. So if you had played at a certain court for a long period of time (Lebron @ the Q, Fisher @ Staples) then you are sure to know the "feel" of the court.

As far as the Lakers and Clippers, they have less road games as the other NBA teams. Period.

[Dark Horse]

Dark Horse,
I was at an NBA Game today, and I observed the home court advantage clear at the beginning of the game, however during the late 2nd and 3rd quarter there was not much fan involvement, however when the 4th quarter started up even though the raptors were down double digits the fans were as active as they were in the first. just an observation however

It's one game.

If people want to build intricate models that include a 1 pt 1Q home court advantage, that's their choice. If it works for them, great.

From where I'm standing that's too subtle to bother with, and I prefer to focus on more obvious edges. What I've been trying to point out, without saying too much, is that such edges are all over basketball. Basketball is a game of fluctuations. Action and reaction. If you can understand those fluctuations, you have a lot more than an average 1 pt advantage at the start of the game.

In my experience you don't need an intricate model for the NBA, and are better off with a fluidity of simpler models; adjustable to the 'chapter' of the season. I've described those general chapters before, and they each come with their own mindset (for the players).

As to RickyS and his morose clan, they know only one way. And they think that there can't possibly be a better way. That's why they're so arrogant. The best thing is to just let them be. They're going to insert their predictable negativity with equally predictable regularity, because that's what they do. Apparently their great success goes hand in hand with an utter lack of joy, so they can have their wonderful way all to themselves. Good luck to them.

[Flying Dutchman]

Good thread, I learned a few things here. My thanks to the OP, Poker for the calcs, and thoughts on different courts.

[Thremp]

Unless you can show a double digit ROI in the NBA, I'd file the above story by DH under "complete fabrication".

[Flying Dutchman]

Unless you can show a double digit ROI in the NBA, I'd file the above story by DH under "complete fabrication".

I'm not sure I'd be so harsh. DH makes some interesting points.

As one of the precision modelers I do look for 1 pt difs as they add up, but differing looks for which part of the season is something I find as having a solid foundation. I find early reg season NBA is easier than mid season, and after trade day, the NBA really tightens up.

[Thremp]

Are you serious?

If you have a multi-point edge on every game you bet, double digit ROIs should be trivial.

[Flying Dutchman]

Are you serious?

If you have a multi-point edge on every game you bet, double digit ROIs should be trivial.

Read my post again before you go Monkey-wacker on me.

I hunt down difs in the fractions of a point, buddy.

[Thremp]

So you're just quibbling over tone and not what I actually said... buddy?

[tomcowley]

Donk Horse's repeated conflation of "home court advantage" and "betting edge" is just amazing. Nobody with a clue would do that once, much less 3 times in one thread.

I'm interested in any practical application (edit: of HCA in the 1q). Are you saying that by blindly betting on home teams in the 1st inning, or 1st quarter, or 1st period, across the board, a bettor would end up ahead

HCA!=Betting Edge

I'm not trying to convince anybody. Bet all NBA home teams 1st quarters.

HCA!=Betting edge

If people want to build intricate models that include a 1 pt 1Q home court advantage, that's their choice. If it works for them, great. From where I'm standing that's too subtle to bother with, and I prefer to focus on more obvious edges.

IT'S NOT A GODDAMN BETTING EDGE TO BEGIN WITH.

[Dark Horse]

lol

Dutch. Keep flying. As I've pointed out before, and is demonstrated here again, the little sect likes to show up in numbers to add absolutely nothing. I picture them as caught in an infinity loop, and screaming for help.

[pedro803]

I definitely agree with the part about 'chapters' of the season and players having a different mindset for each of them. I also agree that 4th quarter is a different animal -- if a team is already ahead substantially then they don't need to add to the point margin, also if a home team is behind it could be that the visitors have something on them in terms of talent, skill, matchups etc... so to just reassess the averages with games where the home team is way ahead wouldn't really give you a pure picture either. i.e. you have to first be in the game before the HCA can help.