How do they decide the moneyline?

**LT Profits** · 12-15-11, 04:27 PM

It is also a function of the game total. Green Bay total is 5 points higher than Atlanta total (46 vs. 41), so points in the Atlanta game are more "valuable", and thus the higher premium.

**FourLengthsClear** · 12-15-11, 04:40 PM

For openers, LT's explanation is spot on.

Thereafter though the spread and ML markets won't always move in tandem. A book that has a substantial exposure to 'sharp' money on the spread only will often move that line while leaving the ML unchanged.

**mattberg** · 12-15-11, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

It is also a function of the game total. Green Bay total is 5 points higher than Atlanta total (46 vs. 41), so points in the Atlanta game are more "valuable", and thus the higher premium.

curious, is there a way to incorporate that information into the ML converter?

**LT Profits** · 12-15-11, 05:16 PM

Its been stated many times that a major flaw in the ML/ATS converter and the half-point calculator is that they give no regard to total. They haven't been updated in like two years either, so I doubt they will get tweaked at this point (where art thou Ganchrow)

**illfuuptn** · 12-15-11, 05:43 PM

I'm sure it's just random
/sarcasm

**FourLengthsClear** · 12-15-11, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by mattberg

curious, is there a way to incorporate that information into the ML converter?

It isn't that easy. The ML converter is based on the same push probability data as the half-point calculator.

This data takes no account of the base spread (in addition to the base total).

As such it 'assumes' that a matchup with a spread of -1 has the same probability (2.50%) of finishing with a -1 margin as a matchup where the market spread is, say -17.5, which is obviously flawed.

I very much doubt that SBR will rectify this and there is really no shortcut to compiling your own push probabilites which incorporate base totals (although some smoothing of the data will be needed).

**Pancho sanza** · 12-15-11, 06:45 PM

Az/Cleve and Minny/saints have the same moneyline/spread, 14 points diff in the total.

Splain that?

**Dutch** · 12-15-11, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by Pancho sanza

Az/Cleve and Minny/saints have the same moneyline/spread, 14 points diff in the total. Splain that?

Originally posted by illfuuptn

I'm sure it's just random /sarcasm

Clever boy. Got some clever answers or just sarcasm?