Expected Return

[Professor1215]

While doing a little internet reading, I came across the following paragraphs in an article:

"One of the biggest leaks in most sports bettor’s game is failure to shop for the best line and price. To pull an actual example from the time I am writing this article: the betting line for the Cleveland Browns at various betting sites is currently Pinnacle Sports: +4.5 -108, Bookmaker.com +4 -110, 5Dimes.com +4 -110, Bet Jamaica: +4.5 -115, BetOnline +4.5 -120. In this case, Pinnacle Sports has the best line.

To illustrate the importance of line shopping, if I give the Browns a 54% chance of covering +4, hence the reason I am looking to bet them, my expected return at each online betting site above is: Pinnacle: 6.7%, 5Dimes and Bookmaker: 3.14%, Bet Jamaica: 1.87%, BetOnline 1.1%."

My question is, how does he calculate the percentages?

[mebaran]

While doing a little internet reading, I came across the following paragraphs in an article:

"One of the biggest leaks in most sports bettor’s game is failure to shop for the best line and price. To pull an actual example from the time I am writing this article: the betting line for the Cleveland Browns at various betting sites is currently Pinnacle Sports: +4.5 -108, Bookmaker.com +4 -110, 5Dimes.com +4 -110, Bet Jamaica: +4.5 -115, BetOnline +4.5 -120. In this case, Pinnacle Sports has the best line.

To illustrate the importance of line shopping, if I give the Browns a 54% chance of covering +4, hence the reason I am looking to bet them, my expected return at each online betting site above is: Pinnacle: 6.7%, 5Dimes and Bookmaker: 3.14%, Bet Jamaica: 1.87%, BetOnline 1.1%."

My question is, how does he calculate the percentages?

Use the search function on this forum (little white box upper right side). There are a ton of good posts in the think tank already. Do some legwork and you'll find everything you need.

[suicidekings]

EV = (probability of winning)*(to win amount) - (probability of losing)*(risk amount)

[FourLengthsClear]

While doing a little internet reading, I came across the following paragraphs in an article:

"One of the biggest leaks in most sports bettor’s game is failure to shop for the best line and price. To pull an actual example from the time I am writing this article: the betting line for the Cleveland Browns at various betting sites is currently Pinnacle Sports: +4.5 -108, Bookmaker.com +4 -110, 5Dimes.com +4 -110, Bet Jamaica: +4.5 -115, BetOnline +4.5 -120. In this case, Pinnacle Sports has the best line.

To illustrate the importance of line shopping, if I give the Browns a 54% chance of covering +4, hence the reason I am looking to bet them, my expected return at each online betting site above is: Pinnacle: 6.7%, 5Dimes and Bookmaker: 3.14%, Bet Jamaica: 1.87%, BetOnline 1.1%."

My question is, how does he calculate the percentages?

Using the simple example of 5 Dimes

0.54 (probability of covering +4)
divided by
110/210 = 0.5238 (implied probability of the line/odds available)

minus 1

i.e. (0.54 divided by 0.5238) = 1.0309
minus 1 = an EV of 3.09%

For the Pinnacle line/odds an adjustment has to be made to the 54% to account for the fact that the line is +4.5. That adjustment is based on the likelihood of the match ending on exactly +4 (push probability). There are several ways to go about this but you first resource should probably be SBRs Half Point Calculator.

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator/

[Professor1215]

If I ever make anything out of myself, I will remember who those people are who reached out and helped me learn. I appreciate it!

[allin1]

how is the research going so far?

[Professor1215]

I have a lot of work left to do. But I have been overloading my brain to the point of where I just need to slow down and take it one thing at a time.

I have also went to Justin and asked for his advice. Got some great information from him.

Right now I have been data scraping and reading, reading and reading some more. I want to be good at this and from what I am learning it is going to take me a couple of months to comprehend everything well enough I will be able to apply it.

What I am "good" at is analyzing sports. While I don't know enough about the market yet, I do know what the players are (or should be) thinking, I understand the strategies and concepts of competition in basketball, hockey and football. Most importantly, this process is an absolute BLAST for me.

In my opinion, as soon as the three books I ordered arrive, I should have all the raw information I need. All I have to do is figure out how to apply it all. And I'm sure I will have one or two more stupid questions.