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How to get out of a slump?
I've been on a horrible losing streak the past 2 weeks. Most likely variance is just catching up to me as I was on a huge Positive variance streak going +50 units only to lose 40 units during these last few weeks. What should I do to stay positive and keep handicapping profitable? I'm contemplating withdrawing funds and waiting til next year, but would rather find a way to overcome this
Jjgold recommends betting both sides of the same game. You will win one for sure.
I would say that the hardest part is starting to second-guess yourself and your abilities, since you did win +50 units. I'm going through the same thing as well. I killed it last week, but the past few days it just seems like I'm just losing juice. Winning a little bit some days, losing a bit others. It gets frustrating.
Just look over how you decide and make sure everything is sound. If you have to make an adjustment, then so be it.
Very common problem, we have all been there. Nice hot streak, bad cold streak and you just feel like a complete mush. Best thing to do is to take a day off and go out and enjoy yourself. Don't look at scores and take your mind off of everything. Then go at it the next day and just take it one unit at a time.
Damn it, I was going to say that.Originally Posted by durito
Time. You have to wait it out. Prolonged losing streaks, fortunately, are few and far between. You can recognize them by their signs. During a prolonged losing streak you will see a much higher than normal occurrence of bad luck (as in 50/50 situations that decide the outcome of a bet and go against you at an absurd ratio), as well as a tendency to be drawn, as if by a magnet, to precisely the wrong bet (example: You never bet a 15-2 team, but decide to bet them on the ML against a bad team. They lose). Once the high accumulation of bad luck starts to subside you're back in the clear. This is only an indirect way of approaching streaks. There is a direct way. But, as thick as that may sound, it is not within the reach of the general public.
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When I find myself in a slump,I lower my limits a little and it takes a little of the pressure off. Do your work and dont bet to many games,only the ones you feel strongly about. Everyone goes through slumps here and there,you'll bounce back.
When you're runnin' bad you have to THINK SMALL.
You'll either start pulling out or - if the bad run continues - you'll at least reverse the psychological dynamic as you will start feeling better about yourself since you were smart enough to cut it back.
It's human nature to want to make the BIG plays - but you have to EARN the right to make them by first winning small.
Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 12-02-10 at 10:34 AM.
Just start betting the opposite of what you think is right.
I wait a couple of days. Honestly, I'm still not sure how to get over this hump.
I'm not really a big Joe Torre fan - but I did get some insight from comments he made in 2001 re his approach after losing the first two Div Series home games to the A's. He talked about THINKING SMALL - how being down 2-0 in a five game series it's too much to even think about winning one game - you have to think only about getting the first strike - the first out of the inning - getting the first run, etc. Needless to say - it worked. Mussina won Game 3 1-0 (the game in which Jeter made the miracle play at the plate) and Torre's 2001 Yankees went on to become the first team in baseball history to win a 5 game post season series after losing the first two at home. They made the comeback by THINKING SMALL.
His comments appear at the end of the game summary below. Some of you may think his words irrelevant to what we do as bettors - but I would argue that they are not. There has not been a season the last 9 yrs that this approach has not seen me thru at least one rough patch - the kind that takes a lot of guys out.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/score.../101288303.htm
Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 12-02-10 at 10:43 AM.
If you want to lose your mind - that's the surest way to do it.
It's even worse on you psychologically than not betting at all and seeing your pick win.
The best approach is just going small. Then even smaller if the losing continues.
Get yourself a slumpbuster.
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-16-15 at 01:33 PM. Reason: image does not exist
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learn how to read line moves .... it doesnt take long and you will always be on the side of a sharp or smart better ....
take a couple days off
Take out any winnings if you still have some and get away from betting for a week or two
When it goes bad.....it goes really bad.....thats just how gambling works
The key is to sense when its really getting ugly like you are now and step away from it for a while
just take a break. Every single time I play Poker after at least a month break, I win.
Of course there is no empirical basis for "bad luck" in a slump, just "variance", but we all know streaks exist based on intuition and experience. But how? I've recently gone 0-12 on plays with theoretical 50/50 odds that I felt very good about. Yet when I win, I will go 5-0, 10-2, etc. How can this be explained? These notions of "streaks" or "luck" or "momentum"?
It's almost superstition to say "take a break" after a bad streak and there's no evidence it helps one lick. To say it does is to say that you somehow magically attain "bad luck" with the acute ability to not pick winners no matter what you do during said bad streak.
Last edited by Sunde91; 12-21-10 at 05:42 PM.
OP: You have not given us enough information to give you any useful feedback.
Is this multi-sports or one?
If it is one sport, for example, realize that leagues vary during the season i.e. methods that worked in the early season can stop by mid-season, and by the end of the season. It depends on your selection method also, if it is not very robust, then it can go off-track and stay off track.
Leagues can change from year to year due to coaching "fashions", league rules (the NFL is famous for this), or other harder to discern reasons (causality can be a bitch). Methods that worked very well one year can quit entirely the next.
option 1) make an adjustment
option 2) fade yourself
There is nothing you can do about running bad. Poker players really eat, breathe and sleep this crap, btw. And although it may seem like you can do things, it's really just superstition. Although changing venues, for poker, can maybe help a bit, because a new physical environment can shake up your focus, and playing against opponents who haven't been beating your brains out the past weeks (and thus gotten confident and A-gamish on you) can be a good thing.
If you're properly managing your betting, you should naturally be betting less as your BR shrinks. Let that happen.
But then there's this: if you're gut-capping (as opposed to modeling) then losing can get you second guessing yourself. It doesn't have to be mere variance causing your losing, it can become poor play. Again, this is a poker thing, wherein you have to accept that bad luck can cause bad play, but it applies to gut-capping sports bettors.
For weak players, a little bad luck can knock them off their game. Almost by definition, the better a player you are, the more bad luck it will take to affect your decision making. But if it DOES affect your decision making, GHU. Maybe taking time off will help, but I doubt it, because you'll still have the bad run on the back of your mind when you come back.
Best, instead, to chill about your past results. Just wake up every day saying fuggit, and dive back in. Ultimately, understanding the nature of variance should bring you some real peace about it and thus keep it from affecting your decision making. And that's what you want, and all you should want: no affect on your decision making.
Good luck.
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Nice one CFA...A girl I dated looked just like that one time.Heck of a slump buster....hehehe.
IN all seriousness, Lower Units and have fewer bets on the board. Let the first game finish before you bet the second.....or place an If/Win Bet.
Stop for a while, you might be too stressed and things only get worse
Just take a break. Always works
In basketball, when a shooter is having a horrific game, the theory behind it is for him to shoot out of his slump. I remember watching Allen Iverson is his prime, shooting along the lines of 3-15, while he continued to shoot and shoot and shoot. While this thread provides many theories to this question, I have never believed in the theory of shooting yourself out of a slump. Pass the ball, take a break, and wait until the next game. While players watch the star continually miss, a seed of frustration grows, discombobulating the structure of the team...
I would say, Firefox, that it doesn't matter what the shooter does. A bad streak is something of an illusion. It's a term applied retroactively. Unless the past bad results CAUSE the future bad results, they should be ignored. If they ARE causing bad results, they should be psychologically dealt with. Maybe time off can help with that, but more likely, to me, that's just pulling the bandaid off slowly.
Just keep at it and let time go by and accept that bad luck is just the part of gambling that balances your good luck, to create what you should expect: average luck.
I like that. I relate too many things to poker, but it applies. How do you break a slump? First by recognizing that it isn't a slump, it was a slump. Luck is a description, not a prediction.
And then do what you should be doing: making the next decision right. That's all. Make the next decision right. Then the next. Then the next.
Genius idea.
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