[subs]

hi i read somewhere else, a previous "the well" guy talking about wong middle range.

ever since i have been messing with the numbers and the half point calc to try to figure this out. does that mean there is an actual number or set of numbers where it would be automatically possible to make a +EV middle? or not? is there a standard sort technique with this over a range of numbers?

i will pay 100 points for the best post or PM on the subject. or 50 points for the best small tip if i am asking too much.

i am really honest and will never stiff any1. good karma baby.

[Maverick22]

You Dont Have 100pts?

[subs]

i will have soon - i gave them up for the charity collection (i have donated more than any other person) but can get them to you by tomorrow. i have many friends here and people know that i am trustworthy.

i'll pay 10 points if i am wong and i misunderstood him.

[smartbets]

i am new to the world of middles but have been workig with them more recently - basically, i believe that it comes down to using push charts and figuring out probabilites to figure out the expected value for a play

in basketball, you need 3 "half point" on spreads and 5 "half points" on totals to justify a play - i was told this by a very respected poster here at sbr and i would take his word for it

a half point is a number that would push one side of the middle and win the other side - so if you have heat -10.5 and wizards +11, the 11 is one "half point" - this would not qualify as a long term +EV play

if you have heat -10.5 and wizards +11.5, the 11 is actually worth 2 "half points", because if it lands on 11 you win both legs of the middle - remember, a half point only needs to win one side and push another - this is not a +EV play either

if you have heat -10.5 and wizards +12, you have 3 half points, and this would qualify as a play for an nba middle the "11" is 2 half points and the "12" is one half point - so this is a +EV play

here is an example for a wider 6 "half point" middle, a which doesnt happen as often as a 3 half point middle but does happen at times - we will use 7, 8, and 9 as the spreads - lets say Jazz -6.5 and Bucks +9

NBA game margins of victory land on "7" 3.7% of the time and land on "8" 3.7% of the time, so that means 7.4% of the time you will win both legs of the middle - NBA game margin of victories land on "9" 4.1% of the time - so that means 4.1% of the time you win one leg of the middle and push the other leg - so what is left is 88.5% of the time you lose one and win one

[subs]

thanks for the help. i understand this stuff but was really asking about something else. anyway i think that i misunderstood the guy.

using up your unused bankroll can not be this easy. i must be wong but i will try every combo just to be sure.

[smartbets]

so the equation for a $50 middle (bet $50 on Jazz -6.5 and bet $50 on Bucks +9) to figure out whether this is a +EV play is this:

(7.4% x $100) + (4.1% x $50) + (88.5% x -5)

which is simplified to $7.40 + $2.05 + ($4.42) which equals $5.02

so this means everytime you do a $50 NBA middle with 6.5 and 9 as the "spread range" for the middle legs, you will win $5.02

so this a Positive Expected Value Play, and anytime you see this opportunity, you should place the wagers and play the middle, because over the long run you will have an edge over the sportsbooks, much like a casino has an edge over you in roulette, craps, keno, etc.

hopefully i did all the math correctly and explained this properly, as I said I am new to all of this

[smartbets]

what do you think "can not be this easy" ?

it takes a lot of line shopping, and having a good "local" who uses stale lines, but you can find opps like this several times a week in the nba - i just started doing middles with a decent amount of discipline and awareness, and there have been several 3, 4, and 5 half point middles just in the past few days

Suns+ 6 Nuggets -4 which landed on 5
Heat -10.5 Wizards +13 which landed on 11
Jazz -6.5 Bucks +9 which is a 20 point blowout currently

[subs]

^^ congrats on your plays sir.

i know how to work out middles using the half point calculator. the trouble is i have been told that the further away from the number that you go the less accurate the calc is. i am looking at middles on TEASERS in the NFL. i suspect it has to do with books shading their lines so that you can not play the teaser properly.

i'll get there. i wish i had a local like some of you guys. seems like printing money with correlated parlays and stale lines, but i do not live in the US and gambling is legal here.

thanks though - very nice of you to take the time to try to help me

BOL

[subs]

ok think that i got it. but you will have to buy points through the 0. right? cool. i always thought that this was a very bad thing to do, which is why i was having trouble with this.

points just got reduced to 50 or if i am wrong back up to 100.

so some books shade lines and some don't and you play them both for the middle. i have heard that bet365 does not screw you when you buy through the 0 any1 know what they are like for what i am trying to do?

[smartbets]

are you trying to buy points to create the middle?

[trixtrix]

you're asking for the teaser sweet spot: basically what the additional cover rate a basic wong teaser would offer you vs. the cover rate of simply taking the bet straight up.

this is not complicated, assuming you're using the half-pt calculator w/ spread of +2.5, which you tease to +8.5, you get:

Spread Push %
3 9.8
4 3
5 1.7
6 3.4
7 5.7
8 2.1
SUM: 25.7

so from the additional 6 pts you get, according to the cover rates offered by hpc, you gain 25.7% additional coverage.

assume the original +2.5 straight bet is 50/50, the projected teaser up to +8.5 covers 50%+25.7%= 75.7% (disclaimer: this is using extreme simplistic assumptions, actual cover rates for additional pts as you deviate away more and more from median spread will decrease)

ps: keep your 50 or 100pts or whatever, i don't need it

[pokernut9999]

what do you think "can not be this easy" ?

it takes a lot of line shopping, and having a good "local" who uses stale lines, but you can find opps like this several times a week in the nba - i just started doing middles with a decent amount of discipline and awareness, and there have been several 3, 4, and 5 half point middles just in the past few days

Suns+ 6 Nuggets -4 which landed on 5
Heat -10.5 Wizards +13 which landed on 11
Jazz -6.5 Bucks +9 which is a 20 point blowout currently

Good locals and stale lines do not exist anymore , this went out many years ago.

Any good local has up to the minute odds .

[RonPaul2008]

.....

[smartbets]

Good locals and stale lines do not exist anymore , this went out many years ago.

Any good local has up to the minute odds .

not true - but i guess it could also depends on your definition of "good"

limits are low, and you can't just play only the big moves, you have to disguise some things to not blow your cover

but i think you would be suprised how many small time "locals" across the country still use the roxy roxborough "america's line" aka "bettor's guide" in the 120+ newpapers around the country that carry it

[saratoga1927]

many old timers do just that what smartbets is saying..... over lots of years i have played with very many and them and they do still exist because they have so many squares that keep them in biz plus the wiser ones will hold limits down to $1000.

[princecharles]

so interesting....would love to see an extraliation of this marriage of quantification and qualification

[Pancho sanza]

you're asking for the teaser sweet spot: basically what the additional cover rate a basic wong teaser would offer you vs. the cover rate of simply taking the bet straight up.

this is not complicated, assuming you're using the half-pt calculator w/ spread of +2.5, which you tease to +8.5, you get:

Spread Push %
3 9.8
4 3
5 1.7
6 3.4
7 5.7
8 2.1
SUM: 25.7

so from the additional 6 pts you get, according to the cover rates offered by hpc, you gain 25.7% additional coverage.

assume the original +2.5 straight bet is 50/50, the projected teaser up to +8.5 covers 50%+25.7%= 75.7% (disclaimer: this is using extreme simplistic assumptions, actual cover rates for additional pts as you deviate away more and more from median spread will decrease)

ps: keep your 50 or 100pts or whatever, i don't need it

+2.5 to +8.5 is nowhere near 75.7 %

[trixtrix]

okay, that's great, but that's the answer op will find using hpc, and that was the only assumption i was given to derive the solution

you must've missed the fine print: "(disclaimer: this is using extreme simplistic assumptions, actual cover rates for additional pts as you deviate away more and more from median spread will decrease)"

also, +2.5 to +8.5 according to hpc is 25.7%

[subs]

Trix that's great, thank you sir. (i just realized how many points you have - wow!)

ok so if i found a team A @ +2.5 and i teased up to + 8.5 and then played ATS team B @ -2.5.
just to be conservative lets assume ties push at -110.

break even for this is 72.4. so ML on 1 leg is 72.4/27.6 = -262

so possible outcomes:
team A wins 45.77%
team A loses by less than 9 but more than 2 + 25.71% = 71.48 % (only teaser wins)
team A loses by less than 3. 4.48% ( teaser and ATS win)
team B wins by more than 2 100-(71.48+4.48) = 24 % (only ATS wins)

so if i were to bet $261 and 110 risk and to win 100.

0.7148(100-110) + 0.048(100 + 100) + 0.24(100-261) = -36.1

-36.1/(261+110) = - 0.097 EV not good really. what did i do wrong?

i was wondering however: for instance Team A @ +1 (+105) and team B @ -1 (125) at many books. so suppose there are 2 games with this spread/line combo. A Vs B and C Vs D. as you know we can get these for ties lose/push at 100 or -105 easily.

so what would happen if you were to play for teaser middles because you have a chance to win both bets. i mean obviously teasing through the 0 is very bad on its own but you are playing for a middle and picking up 1.5 points and losing 1 by teasing through the 0.

so you would tease B @ +5 and C @ + 7 together ties push @ -105

and D @ +5 and A @ + 7 together. ok i realize alone these are -EV plays but so is every 1 side of a middle.

i have just started to do the maths now - just about to start, but there are obviously many many combos of cover, not cover and push for these 2 teasers. i am probably onto a big loser but just wanted to check it unless you guys already know for sure that it is a big loser.

many many thanks for your help

[trixtrix]

this is the last time i help you on the math side, you don't seem to be on the right track and instead of just going off on your own direction, i suggest you take the two posts i've written and really think them over and understand the concepts.

to follow: +2.5/-2.5 are 50/50 (assumed), if you bet each side (-2.5 -110 and +2.5 -110) 110$ at -110, no matter which outcome occur you will lose net 10$. you win one side and get back 210 of you initial 220 overall risked. (this should be self evident)

you risked 220 and lost 10 which means your roi is (-10/220)= -4.5%

now: you tease +2.5 up to +8.5 at an single leg effective price of -240 for a 6pt teaser (something like 2teamer +100 payout), you know this +8.5 leg according to our previous calculations will cover 75.7% of the time.

the roi calculation for the +8.5 leg is (75.7*100- (100-75.7)*240)/(240 risked * 100 trials) = +7.24%

if you attempt to middle the two bets by betting the other side at -2.5 -110 risking 110 (which also have an effective roi of -4.5%, since it's also 50/50)

and the single leg effective teaser +8.5 -240, you will get the following three outcomes (draws need not be excluded b/c all spreads land on the hook):

1.) in the 50% instance of team a loses by 2 pts or less, you will 100 from the teaser and lose -110 on your -2.5 bet, net -10
2.) in the 25.7% instance of team a loses by more than 2 and less than 9 pts, you will win 100 from the teaser and 100 from the -2.5 bet, net 200
3.) in the 24.3% instance of team a loses by 9 pts or more, you will lose 240 from the teaser and win 100 on your -2.5 bet, net -140

roi of the 2 bet combo (teaser+ side) is: {(.5 * -10) + (.257 * 200) + (.243 * -140)} / (240+110) risked = 3.6% roi

as you can see, betting the effective single teaser (projected roi based on previous assumptions 7.24%) is better than trying to middle the teaser (projected roi based on previous assumptions 3.6%)

[subs]

thanks for the 101 trixonomics.

thought i knew this but i screwed it up. is the advantage of middling for a smallish player like me, who could easily overbet at just 1 book, is to be able to use more of his bank roll? that is why i am interested in this even though the roi is much lower.

i usually just bet 3 teamers at +180 using ShipitThx's table at 0.25 multiplier. if i were to play these middles as well (i mean bet the the same amount again) then would this be over betting in your opinion? half this amount?

[princecharles]

how did this work out?????????????

[subs]

your highness - i regret to inform you that i do not believe that this will work . but as there are 16 combinations for the results (without pushes) i have not done the maths. but buying from -1 to +5 is obviously horrible on its own. i'm extra busy right now (x-mas is my busiest time) but if you would like to do the maths please feel free to post it up.

but i do not believe it will be +EV.

[princecharles]

Trix that's great, thank you sir. (i just realized how many points you have - wow!)

ok so if i found a team A @ +2.5 and i teased up to + 8.5 and then played ATS team B @ -2.5.
just to be conservative lets assume ties push at -110.

break even for this is 72.4. so ML on 1 leg is 72.4/27.6 = -262

so possible outcomes:
team A wins 45.77%
team A loses by less than 9 but more than 2 + 25.71% = 71.48 % (only teaser wins)
team A loses by less than 3. 4.48% ( teaser and ATS win)
team B wins by more than 2 100-(71.48+4.48) = 24 % (only ATS wins)

so if i were to bet $261 and 110 risk and to win 100.

0.7148(100-110) + 0.048(100 + 100) + 0.24(100-261) = -36.1

-36.1/(261+110) = - 0.097 EV not good really. what did i do wrong?

i was wondering however: for instance Team A @ +1 (+105) and team B @ -1 (125) at many books. so suppose there are 2 games with this spread/line combo. A Vs B and C Vs D. as you know we can get these for ties lose/push at 100 or -105 easily.

so what would happen if you were to play for teaser middles because you have a chance to win both bets. i mean obviously teasing through the 0 is very bad on its own but you are playing for a middle and picking up 1.5 points and losing 1 by teasing through the 0.

so you would tease B @ +5 and C @ + 7 together ties push @ -105

and D @ +5 and A @ + 7 together. ok i realize alone these are -EV plays but so is every 1 side of a middle.

i have just started to do the maths now - just about to start, but there are obviously many many combos of cover, not cover and push for these 2 teasers. i am probably onto a big loser but just wanted to check it unless you guys already know for sure that it is a big loser.

many many thanks for your help

i don;t agree with your math

[subs]

^^

Your Highness, i don't agree with your punctuation nor your grammar. However, your Majesty, you are quite right; i screwed it up.

Please allow your loyal subject to humbly beg for your Excellency's forgiveness. .

Please allow me to express my deep thanks for bringing this up again. public flogging?
No really, have you got anything constructive to add?

[princecharles]

you'll be surprised .................hitting a one in 20 bet happens!

[subs]

i'm enjoying the journey too, Mr-I'm so-fly... .

[princecharles]

u guys are too much