Originally Posted by
statnerds
So I was getting ready to bet on Kentucky on Saturday and was line shopping, as is my want. Compared lines and got the following idea:
Lost Straight Wager
Kentucky 14 vs Tennessee U 24 Kentucky +125
11/27/2010 - 09:30 AMCFB [152] TENNESSEE U -2-110
Score: KENTUCKY(14) - TENNESSEE U(24)WIN
First ticket from Carib and the second from BetJam.
Before placing the wagers I checked the half point calculator to check it. NCAAF line of 2 ending in a 1 point win for the fave (only way to lose both wagers) was 1.77%. It landed on 2 at 2.48% chance of losing half of my wager, but the smaller on.
So I figured a 95%+ chance of winning 3.3% of my wagered amount.
Any input is welcome. It is not a true Arb obviously, but at -110/+125, thought it was worth the shot. Of course, not a long term strategy. Anyone ever done anything like this before?