Smaller sport large line movement scenario

[Juret]

Hey,

I wanted to ask you about a situation in a smaller sport that I am modeling. I do not believe the closing lines for this sport are efficient because Pinnacle's closing lines were not significantly better than its opening lines; in fact they were worse.

The scenario was like this: the Total opened above my predicted total, and accordingly I bet the Under, 1 % of my bankroll. The line then went down to my predicted total, this was the day before game day. So far nothing strange. Then on game day, the line went down a lot. I have actually never seen a total line that low in this sport. According to my model it is a valuable betting opportunity, more valuable than my initial Under bet, and I should make a 4 % bet (my maximum bet size). What should I do? Another possibility than making the 4 % bet on Over would be to middle my first bet with a 1 % bet on the Over. Or I could bet 5 % on the Over, my maximum loss would be 4 %, so I am not risking more than usual.

Is there a right/wrong thing to do here? Or is it just about individual risk preference?

Thank you

[Bsims]

You are correct, it's a question of individual preference. In my case, I'd most likely leave the under wager alone since it appears to be a vary good one. I might consider middling the initial wager with 1% on the over. That would depend on the difference in spread. I'd want around a 5% liklihood of hitting the middle to do this.

[antifoil]

If it is some small sport with funny line movement, could it have been a fixed game?