soccer underdog .. ats v 1x2

**branrave** · 11-19-11, 08:17 AM

so i put real money into the test here in Norwich City v Arsenal.

ATS. Arsenal -0.75 is around +103 when I took the bet and Norwich +0.75 is around -110. In order to win this game ATS, norwich has to either draw or win the game. Instead of betting Norwich +0.75 -110 I instead put my money on Norwich draw +270. Norwich is +440 to win the game which indicates they are around 17-18% to win the game.

I know the spread is +0.75 which is different from +0.5 since I only gonna lost half if Arsenal wins by exactly a goal. But hopefully I made my point. Isn't is better to bet the draw when you believe underdog of +0.5 or even +0.75 gonna cover?

**tukkk** · 11-19-11, 08:38 AM

you cannot be helped, because we dont know what games will match your criteria
if you have a reason to think that draw is more valuable than underdog +0,5 in your selected games, then all you have to do is test it out

its not about whether all draws are more valuable than underdog +0,5 or whatever, but the filter you apply to all these samples

**branrave** · 11-19-11, 08:56 AM

what i want to know is in general, would draw @+270 is more valuable than +0.5 @+110 when the odds of underdog to win the game itself is about +380 which is roughly 20% of the time.

This is keeping in mind that you like the underdog to cover in the first place.

**tukkk** · 11-19-11, 09:07 AM

you basically want to take all games that
-underdog odds were around +380
-either drew or underdog won
and take those odds to find out which one made more ?

**That Foreign Guy** · 11-19-11, 10:03 AM

What happens to your draw bet when the underdog wins?

**allin1** · 11-19-11, 02:50 PM

You say that

qpr odds of +384 to win the game indicates that qpr will only win roughly 20% of the time.

I don't think that is accurate. How did you come up with that number?

If you can figure out what is the probability for the draw to happen and what is the probability for the underdog to win then you can take those numbers with the odds and check them out with the Kelly criterion http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php to see if it's worth to bet on something.

The thing is, I don't think you can determine the probability of one outcome just from the odds. There are a lot of other factors that count. Even the starting line-up aka the news that come in 30 minutes before kick-off can be crucial.

**allin1** · 11-19-11, 02:52 PM

If you want to mess around with numbers, probabilities and math in general for handicapping, you should get used to different types of odds, or at least use a calculator that converts your odds from any format to any other format.

**tukkk** · 11-19-11, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by allin1

I don't think that is accurate. How did you come up with that number?

the 3 outcomes 1, X, 2 add up to 100%
their no-vigorish odds probabilities add up to 100%
+384 a.k.a 4,84 decimal odds is 1/4,84=20...% probability
this should be calculated using the no-vig line, but is still 20%

**tukkk** · 11-19-11, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by allin1

The thing is, I don't think you can determine the probability of one outcome just from the odds.

odds reflect what probability(+vig) the market believes the event will happen

**allin1** · 11-19-11, 03:25 PM

Do you really think that the bookmakers have that right by putting those numbers as odds? do you really think that those are the exact probabilities for those outcomes? I don't, but I would be happy if I was wrong because then everything would be easier imo.

Especially on soccer you can find lines that are significantly off the average of the market. If you could rely on the probability of the outcomes deducted from the average odds found in the market, then you could definitely find some rouge lines that present opportunities in terms of probability&odds->kelly criterion. I myself am trying to understand how to exploit these off-market lines (without arbitrage) but I can't be sure what is the most accurate probability for one outcome.

I am a rookie by the way so it's quite possible for me to be wrong. I would be very interested of some feedback from the sharp ones on this.

**allin1** · 11-19-11, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by tukkk

odds reflect what probability(+vig) the market believes the event will happen

What the market believes is not necesseraly the right probability. That's why sharp bettors play those lines when they think they are off and that's why eventually lines move. But those sharp bettors, if I understood correctly, are doing tremendous research by doing their homework.

I think sharp players have their own idea of what the probabilities are and then according to the odds on the table they decide weather to bet or not. In this approach every cent matters: for example from 2.00 (+100) to 2.02(+102) is a big difference that can be the decisive factor in deciding to play that line or not.

Also we must take into account the scenario when new information comes in: for example important players being injured/ unavailable. That can change the way sharp players view that event and they will bet large sums of money until those lines change. Sharp players are good at making money from this, therefor their bankroll increases and they become a big influence in the markets.

I don't know if it works the same for English football, but that's how it is for NFL.

**FourLengthsClear** · 11-19-11, 03:34 PM

Unless you have a very good reason to 'overvalue' the draw compared to the market price is generally better to take the +0.5 on the underdog. Two-way Asian handicaps have lower juice (over round) and the lines are proportional to each other.

Obviously if one book has an exceptional number for the draw (or for the underdog), you should play that.

**allin1** · 11-19-11, 04:20 PM

Originally posted by tukkk

the 3 outcomes 1, X, 2 add up to 100%
their no-vigorish odds probabilities add up to 100%
+384 a.k.a 4,84 decimal odds is 1/4,84=20...% probability
this should be calculated using the no-vig line, but is still 20%

So this is accurate then? It is correct to work with probabilities calculated this way? Do sharp players use this type of deduction?

**tukkk** · 11-19-11, 05:01 PM

in order to place a sharp bet, you must be aware of the probability you have calculated and the probability that market offers.

today´s ManU soccer match has 6,4 4,05 1,62 odds
1/6,4=0,15625
1/4,05=0,2469
1/1,62=0,6173
total 1,02045=102,045%
now lets take the vig off
0,15625/1,02045=0,153=15,3%
0,2469/1,02045=0,242=24,2%
0,6173/1,02045=0,605=60,5%
total 100%
the no vig game odds are therefore 6,54 4,13 1,65

thats the most basic thing you need to learn
this is what most bettors do (automated of course)

**allin1** · 11-19-11, 06:15 PM

thank you tukkk for the detailed response

**allin1** · 11-19-11, 06:36 PM

I took the average odds for Chelsea Liverpool 1.83 3.45 4.45
Already had the formulas in Excel so I entered them and I got the numbers:

51.5%, 27.31%, 21.17% without vig

So Liverpool +0.5 @ +108 | 2.08 (current pinnacle odds) is a bet that can be placed with kelly considering a 48.4% probability and betting 0.62% of the bankroll. Is this correct?

**tukkk** · 11-19-11, 07:28 PM

your math is correct but the average odds approach is illogical

**allin1** · 11-19-11, 11:33 PM

yes, that's my dilemma. How can this approach be usefull when the odds vary significantly when you look at the whole market. Would it be ok to use pinnacle or betcris odds?

**branrave** · 11-21-11, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by That Foreign Guy

What happens to your draw bet when the underdog wins?

of course you lose

..

my question here is whether in the long term, betting draw is much profitable than having +0.5.
Does anyone have the stats for this? or where can i get the complete information to gather this data?

**allin1** · 12-17-11, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by tukkk

your math is correct but the average odds approach is illogical

bump. so what is the correct approach?

**allin1** · 12-17-11, 06:50 PM

found this: http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...tml#post112449

and I now realize how stupid I was regarding the odds issue, ignoring the vig when actually those calculations are made because of the vig

**Bekki** · 12-18-11, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by tukkk

in order to place a sharp bet, you must be aware of the probability you have calculated and the probability that market offers.

today´s ManU soccer match has 6,4 4,05 1,62 odds
1/6,4=0,15625
1/4,05=0,2469
1/1,62=0,6173
total 1,02045=102,045%
now lets take the vig off
0,15625/1,02045=0,153=15,3%
0,2469/1,02045=0,242=24,2%
0,6173/1,02045=0,605=60,5%
total 100%
the no vig game odds are therefore 6,54 4,13 1,65

thats the most basic thing you need to learn
this is what most bettors do (automated of course)

In that example it's better to play AHC +0.5.
If we use these odds on Betfair:
ManUtd @ 1.62 = Lay ManUtd @ 2.58

Your calculation says ManUtd will lose 4 of 10 times. So 4*2.58 = 10.34

If u bet only on Draw @ 4.05 u will win 2.5 of 10 games. 2.5*4.05= 10.125

After 10 games u will earn more money by Laying (AHC +0.5) ManUtd.