Easy math problem for points

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  • HauntingTheHoly
    SBR MVP
    • 04-28-10
    • 1397

    #1
    Easy math problem for points
    I'll sound stupid for asking this, but never had to deal with it before and just want some confirmation that I know what I'm doing.

    I want to bet a on a boxer (Pacquiao if you're curious) whom I think will win by KO and probably early in the fight.

    I could make several bets that he wins in individual rounds, for example: Risk a bet that he wins in *each* the following rounds: (and so you'd lose all bets on the *other* rounds and get paid for the one you hit)
    Rd. 1 - 15/1
    Rd. 2 - 12/1
    Rd. 3 - 12/1
    Rd. 4 - 12/1
    Rd. 5 - 12/1
    Rd. 6 - 10/1
    Rd. 7 - 11/1
    Rd. 8 - 11/1

    However there are some similar (perhaps better?) props available:

    Fight won't go 1:30 (halfway) into Rd. 6: +250
    Fight won't go 1:30 (halfway) into Rd. 8: +170

    I guess I need to convert betting each of the individual rounds (at the same amount) into American odds for the first five, six, seven, and eight rounds. I've just been plugging in numbers to see what happens in various scenerios, which is clearly not the most efficient way to go about making a decision, lol.

    Any and all analysis regarding betting the fight welcome. I'll throw some points at people tomorrow.
  • mathdotcom
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-24-08
    • 11689

    #2
    You'll be better off just betting him straight up
    Comment
    • That Foreign Guy
      SBR Sharp
      • 07-18-10
      • 432

      #3
      First of all you watch to dutch the bets for the early rounds.

      Then compare the payoff for dutching rounds 1 to 5 and half of 6 (actually whatever fraction you think of stoppages happen in first 1:30 of a round) with just betting the before 1:30 in R6 prop.
      Comment
      • mathdotcom
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 03-24-08
        • 11689

        #4
        You might want to consider what happens if he does not win in the first 6.5 rounds and then gets knocked out in the 7th?

        Answer: You lose all your money
        Comment
        • jetsjets1028
          SBR MVP
          • 02-10-10
          • 1234

          #5
          math is so easy except for geometry and trig
          Comment
          • HauntingTheHoly
            SBR MVP
            • 04-28-10
            • 1397

            #6
            Originally posted by mathdotcom
            You might want to consider what happens if he does not win in the first 6.5 rounds and then gets knocked out in the 7th?

            Answer: You lose all your money
            Not if you have it straddled with the blanket "Pac by KO" bet at -160. I was gonna structure it where I'd make a little money for a rds. 6-12 KO, or a nice payout for 1-5 KO.

            So only if Pac can't get a KO, does it all go wrong.
            Comment
            • GarbageMan
              SBR Sharp
              • 11-28-10
              • 484

              #7
              Originally posted by mathdotcom
              You'll be better off just betting him straight up
              care to expand? math behind it maybe??
              Comment
              • mebaran
                SBR MVP
                • 09-16-09
                • 1540

                #8
                Forgive my crude math, but Mathy is right:

                If you take all of the aforementioned round bets, you would be getting roughly +130 (risking 800 to win 1037.50...or the average of all those bets) that he wins in the first 8 rounds. You would be getting +170 that the fight won't go past 7.5 rounds (1.5 minutes into the round, 3 minute rounds I assume?).

                So:
                +130 that Pacman wins in the first 8 rounds
                +170 that he wins in first 7.5 rounds

                Again, this is crude math by averaging all the individual round bets together, I'm sure you can tighten that figure a bit. But in essence, you're paying about 40 points for the extra half round. Hope this helps.

                PS - Does that +170 halfway through round 8 bet mean that if EITHER fighter wins before then, the bet wins? Or is that just Pac? If it's both fighters, than obviously you have tremendous value there.
                Comment
                • HauntingTheHoly
                  SBR MVP
                  • 04-28-10
                  • 1397

                  #9
                  @Mebaran - yeah that prop DOES mean you get both fighters. So betting all eight rounds individually is definitely stupid. I was thinking about just betting the first five rounds for Pac and then straddling it with the -160 Pack by KO bet. But I can only figure it out the way you did (at least I think you did it like this): Just plug in $100 for first five rounds each (total $500 bet) and then note what happens if he wins in one of those rounds. You'd win $1500 for round one, minus the 400 you bet in the other four rounds for $1100 bucks, right? And you'd win $1200 for rds 2 thru 5, minus the 400 lost on the other rounds for an 800 dollar profit. So we got +800 in this scenerio and a bit more (+1100) if it ends in Rd. 1, yeah? But then we are diluting that value by also betting the -160 for the Pac KO anytime in the full twelve rds. How to structure.....

                  And if Marquez pulls the KO, how dumb will I feel for not taking that +170 or +250 prop? Think those props are better value than my straddle? I don't think so as of right now.
                  Comment
                  • mebaran
                    SBR MVP
                    • 09-16-09
                    • 1540

                    #10
                    After the math part, I really can't be of much help since I know nothing about boxing. Sorry. All things being equal, I would take the +170 or +250 bet. However, like I said, I don't know how to handicap boxing matches, so there's no guarantee that those props are +EV anyways.

                    on your play/s
                    Comment
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