1. #1
    TMoney33
    Sanchez Blows It: YES -2000
    TMoney33's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-10
    Posts: 388
    Betpoints: 492

    EV Check

    Hello,

    Sorry for the length of the following -

    I came across an Office Square that seems to be +EV. The math seems right, but I can't believe this could be +EV. Would somebody please evaluate and see if I'm correct?

    The first Square is for the PHI/WAS game tomorrow. Cost is $5 There is one winner for the final score. Prize is a $500 Superbowl square.

    Here are the prizes for the SuperBowl Square
    Final Score $20K
    Reverse $10K
    1st Half $5K
    Reverse $2500
    2st Half $4K
    Reverse $1000
    1st Quarter $1500
    Reverse $1000
    2nd Quarter $1500
    Reverse $1000
    3rd Quarter $1500
    Reverse $1000
    Bonus OT Only $2500
    Reverse $2500

    I know the odds are actually better than below, because I have more than one chance to win, but just to keep it simple (for me), I'm using the odds of hitting 1 prize.

    So here's my math: Square one has a 1/100 chance of hitting the winner.
    Square two has a 1/100 chance of hitting a winner.
    .01X.01=.0001 or 999:1

    Prize one pays 4000:1
    Prize two pays 2000:1
    Prize three pays 1000:1

    All of those are individually better than my 999:1 odds. So, buying squares would be +EV correct?

    In a different attempt, I added all non bonus prizes/Square1 Cost
    $50,000/$5 = $10,000:$1 and again my odds are 999:1 right?

    Thanks in advance.
    Last edited by TMoney33; 11-15-10 at 04:11 AM.

  2. #2
    TMoney33
    Sanchez Blows It: YES -2000
    TMoney33's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-10
    Posts: 388
    Betpoints: 492

    Then just to make this more complicated, I was thinking. If you bought all 100 squares in game1 @ $5ea, you would be spending $500 to win a guaranteed $500 entry. Now the max prize in game2 only pays 40:1 while the odds are 99:1, so at what point does the EV start to turn negative?

    Another thought - Game 2 alone should be even money or better right? They take in $50K and pay out $50K unless the game went to OT in which case they pay out $55K.
    Last edited by TMoney33; 11-15-10 at 04:14 AM.

  3. #3
    yak merchant
    yak merchant's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-04-10
    Posts: 109
    Betpoints: 6170

    I don't have time to do the math, but I think your problem lies in the .01X.01=.0001 or 999:1 because .0001 = 9999:1

  4. #4
    TMoney33
    Sanchez Blows It: YES -2000
    TMoney33's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-10
    Posts: 388
    Betpoints: 492

    Stupid decimals always mess me up, but I think you're right. Even so though, there is still $50K to be won which compared to my $5 cost is 10,000:1 while the odds against are 9999:1. So if I'm at least correct on this part, then it would still be +EV right?

  5. #5
    splash
    splash's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-25-09
    Posts: 38

    what? first pool is $5 for a 1 in 100 shot to win $500. So no edge there. Second pool is $500 for a $50000 prize pool, so no edge. try to think of where the extra money could possibly come from..

    the ev is
    (20000*.01)+(10000*.01)+(5000*.01)+(2500 *.01)+(4000*.01)+(1000*.01)+(1500*.01)+( 1000*.01)+(1500*.01)+(1000*.01)+(1500*.0 1)+(1000*.01) = $500

    Which unsurprisingly, since no one is taking a cut, is exactly the cost of the buyin. In fact, if the game were to go into OT, I have no idea where that extra money would come from. Who is going to pay that extra $5k out of pocket? I guess if you consider that extra $5k OT money, it's +EV even though I have no idea where it would come from.
    Last edited by splash; 11-15-10 at 04:18 PM.

  6. #6
    TMoney33
    Sanchez Blows It: YES -2000
    TMoney33's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-10
    Posts: 388
    Betpoints: 492

    Thanks Splash. The way you put it makes sense. So this is even money excluding the bonus. Thanks for explaining that.

    The bonus is just a casino promo. I guess they figure the unlikely chance of it hitting is worth the advertising.

Top