Hello,
Sorry for the length of the following -
I came across an Office Square that seems to be +EV. The math seems right, but I can't believe this could be +EV. Would somebody please evaluate and see if I'm correct?
The first Square is for the PHI/WAS game tomorrow. Cost is $5 There is one winner for the final score. Prize is a $500 Superbowl square.
Here are the prizes for the SuperBowl Square
Final Score $20K
Reverse $10K
1st Half $5K
Reverse $2500
2st Half $4K
Reverse $1000
1st Quarter $1500
Reverse $1000
2nd Quarter $1500
Reverse $1000
3rd Quarter $1500
Reverse $1000
Bonus OT Only $2500
Reverse $2500
I know the odds are actually better than below, because I have more than one chance to win, but just to keep it simple (for me), I'm using the odds of hitting 1 prize.
So here's my math: Square one has a 1/100 chance of hitting the winner.
Square two has a 1/100 chance of hitting a winner.
.01X.01=.0001 or 999:1
Prize one pays 4000:1
Prize two pays 2000:1
Prize three pays 1000:1
All of those are individually better than my 999:1 odds. So, buying squares would be +EV correct?
In a different attempt, I added all non bonus prizes/Square1 Cost
$50,000/$5 = $10,000:$1 and again my odds are 999:1 right?
Thanks in advance.