[JOHON8]

Scalping opportunities.
Hedging bets, by using live play in a variety of sports.

etc... etc... So many sure bet opportunities out there that can be regularly collected when minds work together.

You are a group of intelligent people these are the kinds of opportunities you should be thinking about regularly, why do you continue to make pre-match bets and hope the line the books offered you will hit?

Answers appreciated, thanks.

[AribaAriba]

Most here are middle aged who lives on the basement and gamble recreational. Some became so addictive and you cant even imagine the severity that it brought to someone's life just by being a degen.

[MadTiger]

Haha at Ariba, Ariba.

I think one of the reasons is that it takes quite a bit of volume to get something out of the arbitration (scalping) opportunities that come up. And, also for live betting to be effective, you have to take the time to watch the game.

Those with the skills and patience to arb don't bother with it, because they would rather devote more time to a more potentially lucrative situation with a decent model. Those

[gangeriver]

we should have tons of sportsbook, exchange and e-wallet accounts. each account should have 3000-4000$ ....
Probably a 20-22 years old bettor can't efford, on the other hand a middle age bettors may afford but he can't look after.

[TheLock]

Haha at Ariba, Ariba.

I think one of the reasons is that it takes quite a bit of volume to get something out of the arbitration (scalping) opportunities that come up. And, also for live betting to be effective, you have to take the time to watch the game.

Those with the skills and patience to arb don't bother with it, because they would rather devote more time to a more potentially lucrative situation with a decent model. Those

Well said.

[That Foreign Guy]

Because it's not risk free - lines move leaving you with massive over exposure or needing to lock in a loss both of these suck donkey balls. It also speeds up the process of getting banned from books (if I bet good prices on one side and win a total of $10,000 that's a win of $10,000 - if I arbitrage good prices and "win" $10,000 that's a net win of $300, $10,000 > $300 (not to mention that books are more suspicious of people who only take arbable lines.

[JustinBieber]

we should have tons of sportsbook, exchange and e-wallet accounts. each account should have 3000-4000$ ....
Probably a 20-22 years old bettor can't efford, on the other hand a middle age bettors may afford but he can't look after.

This is simply not true. I only just turned 22 years old and have a 5 figure roll.


Also to answer OP's question it's a matter of +EV. Arbing is fine but there are way more +EV opportunities than just this. Often when you arb one side is +EV and the other side is -EV thus giving up some EVmoney to take a lower risk payout.

[prop]

Betting limits and risk of not getting paid are contributing factors.

[Ominous]

I used to bet quite alot of arbs but the value just isnt so huge.

Say that you can find mb 2-3% value on one offsure book compared to the market line, but when you secure on Matchbook or pinnacle you end up with 0,5% value on the total bet.
Let say you bet 150$ (this was sortof the number you could bet on certain offsure books because of limits) on each side then you earn an avarage of 1,5$ which is not so much money in the end.

I also did quite alot of betting on only one side (offsure book) with wrong lines and taking action. Judging from market odds these bets could have values of around 2-5%. However, I didnt do very well with these either. (For unknown reason).

In the end I relized I spent quite alot of time doing betting and my winnins were only 4k$ USD over the course of 2 years and I had quite large variance since I took action on certain plays; so I got dismotivated and nowdays I dont really sportsbet very much.

Ive had alot more luck winning money on poker and also on gaming.

[RonPaul2008]

The people who do those things don't usually like to share them

[Justin7]

If you handicap, you can hold 4%+ on huge volume, although there is volatility.
If you attack derivatives, you can hold 20%+ on medium volume.

Or, you can surebet small volume.

[Sawyer]

Who said we don't?

[GGZOLA]

first, if you scalp, nowadays the solid books with good payout history can spot you and boot you right away.
second, great scalping opportunities have dried up the last few years; it seems the best scalpable lines are the book that go under.
third, if you are willing to risk hammering a book with soft lines, then getting stiffed by them because everyone else did so, then take that risk.
forth, usa players have to be very careful spreading 1000's all around (in/out) especially these days. You have to open up several accounts, set up thousands and keep reloading books with sharp line because you will lose there and keep hitting the soft books.
fifth, you will be marked as a scalper by one book and they will inform other books eventually (like a blacklist)
sixth, if you have nothing else to do, sit for hours and make this a full-time job, you have to risk thousands each way (provided they are solid books which usually is not the case 100% of the time) very time consuming to eek out profits.
seventh, usa players do not have access to a lot of books with scalps because they do not accept us players.
I can go on, but GL to all that venture. I had a great run from 2005-2009, but one by one books either folded or I got the boot.
Here are some books that I got booted/identified (a valuable head up)
youwager.com
betus.com (took them 4 years to figure out dumbasses but they shut me down finally)
5dimes.com (limited me to 250/game and 50 prop bets.)
betphx.com (limited to 50 prop plays) and 500 for team totals
sportbet.com(86'ed me after 1 week of scalping)
wagerweb.com(same thing)
2betdsi.com (limited to 250 across the board)
p.s. all of these books have dramatically improved their soft lines.

[Sawyer]

Betfair is good to have if you like to make trading/scalping..

Your surebet adventure won't last long if you use these books..

[Peregrine Stoop]

limits are too low in this market

big bettors don't like working for a $1 potential profit on a bet

[SparJMU]

If you handicap, you can hold 4%+ on huge volume, although there is volatility.
If you attack derivatives, you can hold 20%+ on medium volume.

Or, you can surebet small volume.

I understand the concept of derivatives, but have never read any discussion on +EV opportunities in the derivatives market. Would love to hear a few examples.

Is it discussed in your book?

[SparJMU]

Let me also add something informative to the original question. Over the last 2 years I have spent a lot of time arbitraging. I have found that for a small time bettor like myself it can be quite rewarding (a few thousand dollars per sports season). But for the big time guys who want to make more money, a few thousand dollars isn't worth the time. Also for a guy like myself, I have started to grow bored with it. Betting anywhere from $300 to $500 per side, about 95% of my bets only returned a few bucks. About 5% of the time I was able to middle (when I say middle I mean win-push) a game and make a few hundred dollars, but those instances are pretty rare. I don't regret the time I spent because I made close to $15,000 over 2 years just betting about 75% of the NFL and NCAAF weeks, and I learned a lot about the way sports betting works, but I am definitely worn out. It can get very boring scouring lines and props for hours on end.

I have put in my time, and now I am extremely interested in trying to handicap and find other ways to earn a greater return on my cash investment and on my time investment. I am not where I need to be yet, so I will continue arbitrage on the side just to keep building my bankroll, but I certainly hope that I am able to advance my skills and move beyond the practice of arbitrage.

[skrtelfan]

Most bettors hedge way too much. As far as scalping, I read threads about scalping with good dog lines at square books which is usually an awful idea since the square books will only let you win a small amount and then you run the risk of building up a big balance at the square book and getting slowpaid or stiffed.

[Justin7]

I understand the concept of derivatives, but have never read any discussion on +EV opportunities in the derivatives market. Would love to hear a few examples.

Is it discussed in your book?

Yes -- look at teasers and CPs. If you want to get the higher yields, you will have to do your own database work.

[durito]

If you handicap, you can hold 4%+ on huge volume, although there is volatility.
If you attack derivatives, you can hold 20%+ on medium volume.

Or, you can surebet small volume.

20%? i think not.

[Justin7]

20%? i think not.

True or false: you can put in 2 million in parlays a year with a 20% hold on money at risk, and do this year after year?

[wrongturn]

True or false: you can put in 2 million in parlays a year with a 20% hold on money at risk, and do this year after year?

Which book(s) would let you do that for second year?

[SparJMU]

Yes -- look at teasers and CPs. If you want to get the higher yields, you will have to do your own database work.

I am familiar with CPs only in the form of games with high ratios of spread to total, but I was under the impression that books completely block them. And I have recently read up on +EV teasers but I was under the impression that books find ways to avoid those as well?

[Justin7]

Which book(s) would let you do that for second year?

You need many outs, and many people working with you.

[gangeriver]

This is simply not true. I only just turned 22 years old and have a 5 figure roll.

[durito]

With even the slightest intelligence you can turn nothing into a 5 figure roll in no time.

[durito]

True or false: you can put in 2 million in parlays a year with a 20% hold on money at risk, and do this year after year?

how much do you make a year?

[raiders72001]

With even the slightest intelligence you can turn nothing into a 5 figure roll in no time.

not at 22. Too many hiccups to overcome.

[durito]

not at 22. Too many hiccups to overcome.

why i know several people that have done that

[That Foreign Guy]

not at 22. Too many hiccups to overcome.

I've always heard breathing through a paper bag helps with that problem.

[Trucker George]

No NETELLER (for US players) is a big reason many US players don't.

[Justin7]

how much do you make a year?

I make a very good earn, given the number of people my group feeds.

[donjuan]

why i know several people that have done that

The difference is Raiders doesn't have the slightest intelligence you mentioned.

[durito]

so why don't you do 10M in parlays a year at 10%?

[Justin7]

so why don't you do 10M in parlays a year at 10%?

There's no difference in market size for low-grade parlays (10%) and better ones (20%+). The real cost is in personnel and management. Could a group put in 10m in parlays with a 20% hold? Yes. Would the partner's profit be greater under that business model? Perhaps. But it is a very different syndicate model -- a small group vs a mid-size group. I know and understand small group management.

I don't have an MBA, and I don't know how to manage risks (as well) with people I don't trust absolutely. The more people you include in a group, the greater the risks are of theft (both money and trade secrets).