1. #36
    MonkeyF0cker
    Update your status
    MonkeyF0cker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-12-07
    Posts: 12,144
    Betpoints: 1127

    20%? LOL. Come on.

  2. #37
    raiders72001
    raiders72001's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 10,446
    Betpoints: 15108

    Both 20% and 4% seem high to me.

  3. #38
    raiders72001
    raiders72001's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 10,446
    Betpoints: 15108

    Quote Originally Posted by donjuan View Post
    The difference is Raiders doesn't have the slightest intelligence you mentioned.
    True, I'm not that smart but GUARANTEE that I'm smarter than you.

  4. #39
    donjuan
    donjuan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-07
    Posts: 3,993
    Betpoints: 7537

    Quote Originally Posted by raiders72001 View Post
    True, I'm not that smart but GUARANTEE that I'm smarter than you.
    Will you be regaling us with your "key numbers in basketball" shtick again?

  5. #40
    lovehbk
    lovehbk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-03-10
    Posts: 1

    eeee,i just see the comments.hahahh

  6. #41
    patswin
    patswin's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-05-06
    Posts: 1,794
    Betpoints: 10189

    interesting thread

  7. #42
    Justin7
    Justin7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-31-06
    Posts: 8,577
    Betpoints: 1506

    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    20%? LOL. Come on.
    Monkey,

    Do you really not know what's going on? I thought you were mainly in Vegas.

  8. #43
    Justin7
    Justin7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-31-06
    Posts: 8,577
    Betpoints: 1506

    Quote Originally Posted by raiders72001 View Post
    Both 20% and 4% seem high to me.
    Raiders,

    What's your EV on a 4-team 6-point BS teaser, excluding road favs?

  9. #44
    Pancho sanza
    Pancho sanza's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-18-07
    Posts: 386

    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    Raiders,

    What's your EV on a 4-team 6-point BS teaser, excluding road favs?
    Teasing favs down? Dogs up?

    Whats the total? Whats the market line?

    Come on Justy, you know that can't be answered without more info.

  10. #45
    MonkeyF0cker
    Update your status
    MonkeyF0cker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-12-07
    Posts: 12,144
    Betpoints: 1127

    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    Monkey,

    Do you really not know what's going on? I thought you were mainly in Vegas.
    Yes, I'm in Vegas and I know exactly what's going on. You talking out of your ass.

  11. #46
    Justin7
    Justin7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-31-06
    Posts: 8,577
    Betpoints: 1506

    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    Yes, I'm in Vegas and I know exactly what's going on. You talking out of your ass.
    Please, do enlighten me Monkey. Where are you failing?

    Can you not find 20% EV parlays?

    Or can you find them, and not get enough volume?

  12. #47
    MonkeyF0cker
    Update your status
    MonkeyF0cker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-12-07
    Posts: 12,144
    Betpoints: 1127

    Can I find them? Yes. Am I going to strictly bet them and forgo EG? No. Would I need a team to do it either way? Absolutely not.

  13. #48
    Thremp
    Thremp's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-23-07
    Posts: 2,067

    I would wager money that J7 is lying.

  14. #49
    Justin7
    Justin7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-31-06
    Posts: 8,577
    Betpoints: 1506

    Quote Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
    I would wager money that J7 is lying.
    Ok Thremp, let's get your take. You can bet in Vegas and any offshore book. Where is the fallacy?
    1. You can find 20% EV parlays
    2. You can bet them with volume

    Monkey,

    I'm not saying you forgo other opportunities. There are a gazillion ways to make small amounts of money. The real limiting factor is a person's time and energy.

  15. #50
    Justin7
    Justin7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-31-06
    Posts: 8,577
    Betpoints: 1506

    Quote Originally Posted by Pancho sanza View Post
    Teasing favs down? Dogs up?

    Whats the total? Whats the market line?

    Come on Justy, you know that can't be answered without more info.
    Read closer. All the info you need is there.

  16. #51
    MonkeyF0cker
    Update your status
    MonkeyF0cker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-12-07
    Posts: 12,144
    Betpoints: 1127

    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    Monkey,

    I'm not saying you forgo other opportunities. There are a gazillion ways to make small amounts of money. The real limiting factor is a person's time and energy.
    Actually, that's precisely what you're saying when you talk about a 20% hold.

  17. #52
    Justin7
    Justin7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-31-06
    Posts: 8,577
    Betpoints: 1506

    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    Actually, that's precisely what you're saying when you talk about a 20% hold.
    No, I don't think I said that. And I haven't experienced that either. There are certainly some things you can do that will win and draw attention (like round-robining bad lines), but there are plenty of others that go unnoticed for years.

  18. #53
    FreeFall
    FreeFall's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-20-08
    Posts: 3,365
    Betpoints: 2391

    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    why i know several people that have done that

  19. #54
    MonkeyF0cker
    Update your status
    MonkeyF0cker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-12-07
    Posts: 12,144
    Betpoints: 1127

    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    No, I don't think I said that. And I haven't experienced that either. There are certainly some things you can do that will win and draw attention (like round-robining bad lines), but there are plenty of others that go unnoticed for years.
    It's implicit, Justin. Show me a parlay with 20% hold and I'll show you a method of higher EG with vastly lower hold.

  20. #55
    Justin7
    Justin7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-31-06
    Posts: 8,577
    Betpoints: 1506

    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    It's implicit, Justin. Show me a parlay with 20% hold and I'll show you a method of higher EG with vastly lower hold.
    I'll bite.

    How would you change your play on this NFL Parlay, available at bookmaker?
    Risk $100, to win $300
    Minnesota -2
    Atlanta -2.5
    Green Bay -1.5
    Kansas City +8

  21. #56
    Emily_Haines
    Emily_Haines's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-09
    Posts: 15,878
    Betpoints: 15224

    too hard to move money these days and with the fee's associated with it it is just not worth it.

    risk of not getting paid and betting limits have an impact as well

    I would rather just have my money riding on a good +EV bet rather than trying to make a 2-5% sure profit.

  22. #57
    MonkeyF0cker
    Update your status
    MonkeyF0cker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-12-07
    Posts: 12,144
    Betpoints: 1127

    Umm. Are we talking about parlays or teasers, Justin? WTF.

  23. #58
    Justin7
    Justin7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-31-06
    Posts: 8,577
    Betpoints: 1506

    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    Umm. Are we talking about parlays or teasers, Justin? WTF.
    A teaser is a parlay.

  24. #59
    MonkeyF0cker
    Update your status
    MonkeyF0cker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-12-07
    Posts: 12,144
    Betpoints: 1127

    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    A teaser is a parlay.
    Your statement about 20% hold was for DERIVATIVES. Are we squirming, Justin?

  25. #60
    Justin7
    Justin7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-31-06
    Posts: 8,577
    Betpoints: 1506

    I define a derivative as any wager dependent on a game spread or total, that is not a straight wager on that. Teasers are certainly derivatives.

  26. #61
    MonkeyF0cker
    Update your status
    MonkeyF0cker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-12-07
    Posts: 12,144
    Betpoints: 1127

    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    I define a derivative as any wager dependent on a game spread or total, that is not a straight wager on that. Teasers are certainly derivatives.
    And how many 4-team derivative parlays (LOL! i.e. teasers) do you wager per year? And this is the entirety of your DERIVATIVE wagering? You need a team that you can trust for THIS?!? LMAO.

    I'm not at home to run numbers either, but one 4-team teaser with those sides is probably not optimal anyway.

  27. #62
    Justin7
    Justin7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-31-06
    Posts: 8,577
    Betpoints: 1506

    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    And how many 4-team derivative parlays (LOL! i.e. teasers) do you wager per year? And this is the entirety of your DERIVATIVE wagering? You need a team that you can trust for THIS?!? LMAO.

    I'm not at home to run numbers either, but one 4-team teaser with those sides is probably not optimal anyway.
    Monkey,

    You have an amazing aptitude for making up things and quoting me with it. If you want to quote me, please use the /quote/ function going forward.

    Of course this is not the entirety of what I bet. 95% of what I bet, I would never discuss on a public board. I chose that teaser example, because it fit the point, and I'm not giving anything away by discussing it.

    Back to the original point... would you care to use my example, or give your own where you lower your hold but increase EG?

  28. #63
    uva3021
    uva3021's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-01-07
    Posts: 537
    Betpoints: 381

    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    I'll bite.

    How would you change your play on this NFL Parlay, available at bookmaker?
    Risk $100, to win $300
    Minnesota -2
    Atlanta -2.5
    Green Bay -1.5
    Kansas City +8
    based on history 3/1 in this scenario is not EV, though you said yourself you exclude road favorites, which may create EV haven't looked

  29. #64
    Justin7
    Justin7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-31-06
    Posts: 8,577
    Betpoints: 1506

    Quote Originally Posted by uva3021 View Post
    based on history 3/1 in this scenario is not EV, though you said yourself you exclude road favorites, which may create EV haven't looked
    You think that is a -EV teaser? You could start a whole thread on that...

  30. #65
    MonkeyF0cker
    Update your status
    MonkeyF0cker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-12-07
    Posts: 12,144
    Betpoints: 1127

    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    If you attack derivatives, you can hold 20%+ on medium volume.
    Here's a quote! A few 4-team NFL teasers per week is not medium volume.

    As for your ridiculous example, I'll get to it later when I get home.

  31. #66
    Thremp
    Thremp's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-23-07
    Posts: 2,067

    If you're going to claim you meant betting low EG teasers, I retract my previous statement. Though year after year is certainly lol.

    I would contend that anyone doing what you suggest is likely an idiot though.

  32. #67
    uva3021
    uva3021's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-01-07
    Posts: 537
    Betpoints: 381

    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    You think that is a -EV teaser? You could start a whole thread on that...
    the data I just ran suggest EV would be closer to 3.5/1

    it depends if you filter the data through key numbers and what not, and all of those plays are based on negotiating key numbers, hence GB -1.5 rather than Dallas +13.5

  33. #68
    Justin7
    Justin7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-31-06
    Posts: 8,577
    Betpoints: 1506

    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    Here's a quote! A few 4-team NFL teasers per week is not medium volume.

    As for your ridiculous example, I'll get to it later when I get home.
    Monkey,

    It's been fun trying to engage you. If you ever decide you're serious about discussing theory, and you're ready to quit drawing ridiculously wrong conclusions about what I do, we can resume.

  34. #69
    MonkeyF0cker
    Update your status
    MonkeyF0cker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-12-07
    Posts: 12,144
    Betpoints: 1127

    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    Monkey,

    It's been fun trying to engage you. If you ever decide you're serious about discussing theory, and you're ready to quit drawing ridiculously wrong conclusions about what I do, we can resume.
    LOL. Please. I'm just going on the bullshit you're trying to feed us. If the entirety of your 20% DERIVATIVE HOLD argument rests on 4-team NFL teasers, you're not fooling ANYONE with a clue. Cut the shit already. It's getting old.

  35. #70
    sideloaded
    staring into the abyss
    sideloaded's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-21-10
    Posts: 7,561

    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    LOL. Please. I'm just going on the bullshit you're trying to feed us. If the entirety of your 20% DERIVATIVE HOLD argument rests on 4-team NFL teasers, you're not fooling ANYONE with a clue. Cut the shit already. It's getting old.

First 1234 Last
Top