Let me start by saying my backround is in biology not statistics. With that being said, I am using a poisson equation. My question is how do you calculate value as it relates to the line? I am getting numbers like .4557 and .6533. If I am correct these would be predicted 45.57% and 65.33% win rates respectively. Maybe I terming these values incorrectly . If so I am applying the values incorrectly also. Anyway...
So let's say you have:
Team A 45% (+130) v Team B 65% (-145)
Team C 50% (+120) v Team D 55% (-110)
So how do you calculate value of a side in relation to the line presented by the books? If this is unclear or incorrect I can try again but my math terminology might not be up to par with some of yours. Thanks