1. #1
    Salmon Steak
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    Join Date: 03-05-10
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    I have a question if anyone has free time

    Let me start by saying my backround is in biology not statistics. With that being said, I am using a poisson equation. My question is how do you calculate value as it relates to the line? I am getting numbers like .4557 and .6533. If I am correct these would be predicted 45.57% and 65.33% win rates respectively. Maybe I terming these values incorrectly . If so I am applying the values incorrectly also. Anyway...

    So let's say you have:

    Team A 45% (+130) v Team B 65% (-145)

    Team C 50% (+120) v Team D 55% (-110)

    So how do you calculate value of a side in relation to the line presented by the books? If this is unclear or incorrect I can try again but my math terminology might not be up to par with some of yours. Thanks

  2. #2
    djiddish98
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    You can convert the line into a percentage.

    > + 100 = 100/(100+odds)

    < + 100 = odds / (100 + odds)

    or you can just calculate your edge by taking your prob and multiplying by the decimal conversion of the odds you're allowed to be on (and then subtract 1).
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  3. #3
    Salmon Steak
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    Got it thank you very much. Best of luck to you.

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