[TMoney33]

Hello,

I am still relatively new to sportsbetting in general, and am just starting to learn the more advanced concepts, but I think I found an arbitrage opp.

Carib
NE (+115)

Bodog
SD -3 (+115)

Here's the way I figure the math for a $100 bet on each:
SD loses: Bodog -$100, Carib +$115 = +$15
SD wins by 1-2: Bodog -$100, Carib -$100 = -$200
SD wins by 3: Bodog $0, Carib -$100 = -$100
SD wins by 4+: Bodog +$115, Carib -$100 = +$15

So the way it looks to me is that unless SD wins by 1-3 points, I am guaranteed a profit of $15 on every $100 bet.

Am I missing something, or is this correct?

[tomcowley]

You're correct (well, the second category I'm sure you meant SD by 1-2 and not 1-3). Now play with the percentages from the half-point calculator and see if this is actually a good idea.

[TMoney33]

Thanks Tom,

I corrected that. I thought this was an arb opp, but I'd never actually seen one before. I figured that I must be missing something. Thanks for letting me know that I had something here. I will check out the calculator you suggested. Thanks again.

I also just saw the DSI has the ML for NE @ +115 too.

[subs]

hi i'm new as well, but as far as i know this is called a reverse middle or a polish middle. what you need to work out, by using push chart/calculator, is what the % is for all of the outcomes that you wrote out above. you will need the total for the game to do this.

then you can see if you expect to make money, expected value is.

i don't like it but this is just a noobs thoughts. take with extra pinches of salt.

BOL

[RonPaul2008]

This is called a polish middle. This particular one is a horrible idea.....definitely not +EV.
The favorite wins by 3 around 10% in the NFL. Throw middles on 1 and 2....just a very bad idea.

Hello,

I am still relatively new to sportsbetting in general, and am just starting to learn the more advanced concepts, but I think I found an arbitrage opp.

Carib
NE (+115)

Bodog
SD -3 (+115)

Here's the way I figure the math for a $100 bet on each:
SD loses: Bodog -$100, Carib +$115 = +$15
SD wins by 1-2: Bodog -$100, Carib -$100 = -$200
SD wins by 3: Bodog $0, Carib -$100 = -$100
SD wins by 4+: Bodog +$115, Carib -$100 = +$15

So the way it looks to me is that unless SD wins by 1-3 points, I am guaranteed a profit of $15 on every $100 bet.

Am I missing something, or is this correct?

[Ian]

This isn't a scalp. This is a reverse middle. Reverse middles are usually, but not always, terrible bets. A scalp would look more like this:

Book A: Tim Tebow mentions Jesus in a postgame interview: -500

Book B: Tim Tebow doesn't mention Jesus in a postgame interview: +600.

In this case if the favorite wins you break even, but if the dog wins you profit.

[TMoney33]

Thanks for the comments subs. I haven't acted on this bet yet. It seems like the risk is huge compared to the reward. Plus, I started with the half point calculator, and one thing led to another. Now I feel like I'm in over my head. I thought there was alot of math involved in poker, but this is nuts. It's a little overwhelming how much there is to learn in regards to this topic.

BTW, I searched for push chart/calculators, but couldn't find anything. Could you tell me more?

Thanks

[RonPaul2008]

Thanks for the comments subs. I haven't acted on this bet yet. It seems like the risk is huge compared to the reward. Plus, I started with the half point calculator, and one thing led to another. Now I feel like I'm in over my head. I thought there was alot of math involved in poker, but this is nuts. It's a little overwhelming how much there is to learn in regards to this topic.

BTW, I searched for push chart/calculators, but couldn't find anything. Could you tell me more?

Thanks

I've never used a half point calculator in my life. Just find somewhere that gives approximate odds of certain numbers hitting and then it is easy.

[Monte]

So how do bookies make $$$ again? Oh, yea right...

[tomcowley]

I've never used a half point calculator in my life. Just find somewhere that gives approximate odds of certain numbers hitting and then it is easy.

SBR half point calculator has the push percentages of the numbers as well. Don't trust it far away from the actual spread, but when you're in the ballpark, it's good enough for government work.

EV=$outcome1*%outcome1 + $outcome2*%outcome2 .........

This bet only has 4 outcomes (dog wins ml, fav by 1-2, fav by 3, fav covers), so it really shouldn't be that hard to get the EV here.

[subs]

hi TMoney - as i said i'm no expert at all. TomCowley most certainly is and i think RonPaul is giving very good advice also. i'll have a go, though i may be wrong. hopefully some1 will correct me.

NE wins Straight Up +115 is 46.5% you will win $15

SD by 1 is about 2.5%
SD by 2 is about 2%
so SD by 1 or 2 is 4.5% you will lose $200

SD by 3 = about 9.8% (lets call it 10 for ease) you will win $100. these i got from the half point calculator. type in -3 for spread and +115 for fav line. or type -2.5 to see far enough to get % for 1.

SD by more than 3 is 100% - (46.5 + 4.5 + 10) = 39% you will win $15

EV=$outcome1*%outcome1 + $outcome2*%outcome2 .........

expected return (EV) = (15*0.465) + (-200*0.045) + (-100*0.1) + (15*0.39)

EV = -6.75.

i may be wrong. normal middles for a half point may be easier to find and calculate. but i do read somewhere that there are a number of opportunities for those who have automated the search and obviously the calculations for them.

to really profit you will need a large bank roll. a fast way to build this up may be bonus whoring combined with playing near scalps (arbs) from book to book. my advice (blind leading the blind) is to bonus whore until you have more experience and more outs. then maybe if you are interested in scalping try to sign up for a free arb/scalp service trial. you will then see how many different books you will need and just how quick you have to be to profit. also many books will ban or collar you especially UK books and others not very tolerant of this practice.

not trying to put you off, but jumping right in will be tricky. but having said that, i have found a few easy ones in tennis as lines tend to differ a lot. this got me banned very quickly from UK books that i liked for soccer . arbers/scalpers do not tend to help each other a lot because they are in direct competition with each other, so you will have to learn through searching a lot and experience.

hope i didn't get too basic/boring for you

BOL

[TMoney33]

Thank you all for the comments. I gained a few new things from them, like what a polish middle is, and a better idea of how to use the 1/2 pt clculator.

There is definitely alot more to the theory side than I would have ever guessed. For now I will just stick with what I've been doing until I get more comfortable with it (and a bigger BR).

Thanks again, for the comments.