Bankroll Recalculation Increases Breakeven % ??

**jolmscheid** · 08-30-11, 07:03 AM

Also, many say to wager "X"% per game....I always wondered if it is better to RISK X% or TO WIN X% on ones wager? Obviously because of varying odds one might play isn't playing TO WIN X% have the potential of increased risk because one has the potential of playing a -170 game for example?

So would just straight out RISKING X% per game actually be better because then one is never actually risking more than their per game % limit on any one play?

Thanks so much guys...look forward to some help on this.

**Arilou** · 08-30-11, 11:05 AM

Kelly is optimal if you have full information about the world and zero calculation/adjustment costs, no operations costs or expenses, you can bet as much as you want, and you want to maximize bankroll growth. I'm a skeptic that real world conditions are close enough to that case to make Kelly worthwhile, but it's a strong baseline to anchor your thinking. It's far superior to the standard alternatives!

Risk on large favorites: The math on this is very clear, and you do want to use TO WIN if Kelly is your true goal. Constant RISK would cause you to vastly overbet underdogs relative to favorites. I bet more on large underdogs than Kelly would recommend, relative to my other bets. I'm not sure how much of that is correct and due to differences between the simplified Kelly world and the real world, and how much of that is due to gut feelings and gambling conventions that shouldn't matter. I'm sure there's some of both.

**Arilou** · 08-30-11, 11:09 AM

Now the original question, which is break-even percent. It is easy to see that at even odds, wagering Kelly will cause your break-even % to be above 50%. This is because if you win and then lose, or lose and then win, the recalculation makes the winning bet smaller than the losing bet, so you've lost a tiny bit. The compensation is that if you lose-lose, you lose less than your win if you win-win, and this more than makes up for what you've sacrificed.

Recalculation in real time is the correct thing to do, in terms of your bankroll. It can, however, be bad for your mental state to lose every time you go 2-2, and you may choose to sacrifice a bit of precision to avoid that, especially if you can also avoid spending time recalculating bet sizes between wagers. Time spent figuring out to bet $503.34 rather than $500 is time not spent finding the edge in the first place!

**jolmscheid** · 08-30-11, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by Arilou

Now the original question, which is break-even percent. It is easy to see that at even odds, wagering Kelly will cause your break-even % to be above 50%. This is because if you win and then lose, or lose and then win, the recalculation makes the winning bet smaller than the losing bet, so you've lost a tiny bit. The compensation is that if you lose-lose, you lose less than your win if you win-win, and this more than makes up for what you've sacrificed.

Recalculation in real time is the correct thing to do, in terms of your bankroll. It can, however, be bad for your mental state to lose every time you go 2-2, and you may choose to sacrifice a bit of precision to avoid that, especially if you can also avoid spending time recalculating bet sizes between wagers. Time spent figuring out to bet $503.34 rather than $500 is time not spent finding the edge in the first place!

Thanks Arilou...so correct me if I am wrong:

*It is better to play TO WIN X amount on every play no matter if a fav or dog

And is it still smart to re-calculate bet size when one's bankroll decreases by a certain percentage or after a given time frame like each month??

Thank you and look forward to some more insight...I appreciate it!

**jolmscheid** · 01-16-12, 09:04 PM

Bump..

**goblue12** · 01-17-12, 09:14 PM

Play to win the Kelly amount.

**jolmscheid** · 01-17-12, 09:21 PM

What if one is flat betting?

**subs** · 01-17-12, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by goblue12

Play to win the Kelly amount.

Originally posted by jolmscheid

What if one is flat betting?

Play to win the flat betting amount