[gilly6864]

what makes sports betting difficult is not having the patience to stay in the game. to many people cannot stick to a system after a streak of losses and they try to change something and it makes it worse. what makes a successful handicapper is knowing how to deal with a losing streak and staying positive! anyone can pick winners and boast about it, but how do these people handle a tough stretch of losses--do you get frustrated enough to bet more?, do you try to change your handicapping method and make it worse? do you give up and bet the whole bankroll?
whether you use math or other means to handicap, stay with your method and let it work over the long haul! anybody can pick 60% over 30 picks, but how do you do over 5,000 picks!! losing money makes people do weird things when it comes to gambling and that's the downfall.. if your in this game to make quick money then be prepared to lose it. think of this as an investment for down the road!

[chipleader]

I agree with you man, I think there is a lot of psychology involved in handicapping long haul. You cannot control what happens in the game. What you can control is what you bet and how you bet. I have strict bank roll management policy. Wager only 1% of allocated bank roll. No chasing. No parlays. Even with this system in place it’s very difficult to follow especially on Saturday and Sunday with so many College and NFL football action.

[sneak-a-peak]

Good post

A lot of bettors are here today and gone tomorrow because they dont understand the logistics of the long haul

[Sawyer]

You gotta bet like a robot. You should stay emotionless all the time. That's why I love flat staking. When betting on similiar odds (like all best are -105) I don't place 200$ on Game-A and 1500$ on Game-B. I place same amount on each bet because you can't know which one will win and which one will lose.

Stick to your system & strategy and stay patient. Laws of math & time will take care of the rest

[Dark Horse]

Try to improve your methods and understanding every year. The higher you place the bar, the more room you'll find for improvement.

When betting on similiar odds (like all best are -105) I don't place 200$ on Game-A and 1500$ on Game-B. I place same amount on each bet because you can't know which one will win and which one will lose.

It's not about winning or losing a single game, but about the probability of winning or losing; repeated over and over again. If you have no accurate way of determining that probability, you are better off flat betting. The question remains, if you take betting seriously, why you would not take the trouble to add that ability to your repertoire.

[Sawyer]

There shouldn't be dramatical differences between your stakes in my opinion. This way, you may increase the variance. Only touts use staking sytems like 10* Dime Play, 500* Dime Play, 250* Dime play. Can't go with flat staking if you know what you're doing. If you will use a changeable-stake system, my suggestion is, there shouldn't be any dramatical difference between your stakes. A staking system like 3-4-5 is not bad but if you bet 2 unit on game and 18 unit on another, then it's a dangerous thing. I don't have Lock of the year, Play of the Millennium or Ultra Superb Banker Supersonic Winner Pick blah blah. All my plays (for -110) are 1 unit. You may feel more confident with another bet but it's a dangerous thing. No room for emotion in sports betting.

[MadTiger]

Touts use those higher wagers in an attempt to repair their records.

[shaunovery]

When betting you need to have a staking plan be patient and don't chase being a betting shop manager I would know

[Poogs]

You should definetly not be betting the same amount on every game

[rhino1153]

I see arguments for flat betting and varying your wagers both but I don't think one is more correct over the the other. To weight your plays you would need the statistical probabilities over time to back up that weighting system. If you don't have the historical probability stats, then yes, I agree, flat betting is the way to go.

[rhino1153]

Try to improve your methods and understanding every year. The higher you place the bar, the more room you'll find for improvement.

It's not about winning or losing a single game, but about the probability of winning or losing; repeated over and over again. If you have no accurate way of determining that probability, you are better off flat betting. The question remains, if you take betting seriously, why you would not take the trouble to add that ability to your repertoire.

You couldn't be more right! Your experience shows.

[sneak-a-peak]

You should definetly not be betting the same amount on every game

Units are definitely the way to go (within reason)

[tomcowley]

Over 99% of people should flat bet. Not so coincidentally, they should each flat bet the exact same amount per game.

[Data]

Over 99% of people should flat bet. Not so coincidentally, they should each flat bet the exact same amount per game.

Come on man, you missing on the utility of fun for those folks, it's akin to saying that mostly everyone should always drink the same amount of alcohol. That's not right. Drink responsibly and if you feel like having a big night and can afford the morning after, go for it.

[pedro803]

Ha Ha Data - that is funny -- social betting is ok and fun but if you find yourself betting alone in a dark room, then maybe you should consider flat betting! -- unless, of course, you have the chops to figure your probabilties accurately

[gordan21]

what is your name or service?

[Monte]

Well obviously if you can handle it, you should lay a bit more on "stronger" bets.
It's just that most ppl prolly don't know "if" they can handle it till the bad beats happen, it ain't a drug for nothing.

[Peep]

Over 99% of people should flat bet. Not so coincidentally, they should each flat bet the exact same amount per game.

That is what I do. Works good.

[Sawyer]

You should definetly not be betting the same amount on every game

Of course, you can't place same amount on a -130 and +300 bet but if odds are in same range, there shouldn't be a dramatical difference between your stakes imo. 3-4-5 Stake system is ok. Flat Stake is good too. Many asian betting syndicates use flat staking..for a reason I guess..

Well obviously if you can handle it, you should lay a bit more on "stronger" bets.
It's just that most ppl prolly don't know "if" they can handle it till the bad beats happen, it ain't a drug for nothing.

Lay a bit more on Stronger bets? How you know it's a strong bet!? You can't know which bet will win and which bet will lose..

[Peep]

Of course, you can't place same amount on a -130 and +300 bet but if odds are in same range,

Actually, I do.

Why not? I don't get hurt bad if the -130 chalk thing falters, and I do real good if the +300 gets lucky.

If anything, I bet more on the longer priced ones.....

[Sawyer]

Yes, yes. Of course, you can..but not always I guess..sometimes you don't want to risk more on a big dog like +500.

[Peep]

sometimes you don't want to risk more on a big dog like +500.

Right.

But there is no feeling like when you cash one of those suckers, especially when you have "too much" bet on it.

[That Foreign Guy]

Over 99% of people should flat bet. Not so coincidentally, they should each flat bet the exact same amount per game.

I bet this amount on 99% of games, does that mean I am doing it right?

[azplaya]

I've been screwing around with sports betting for about 2 months now and one thing I've determined is that I have to flat bet. I don't have the fortitude to handle going 4-1 on a day but losing money because that one loss was a 10 unit bomb that couldn't lose. I think for every new sports bettor, if you flat bet, and stay emotionless like sawyer said, and don't chase, you should be fine. I've been taking the approach of flat betting 3% of my roll on every game, whether its a one unit play or one of paco's "strip club specials" and I've been doing much better

[fightingwarrior]

you lose over the long haul

[jolmscheid]

Yup...flat betting seems to be the safest when it comes to profit / Loss, but some know how to vary bets and be successful at it...not me...I gotta pretty much do all the bets for close to the same amount...it's hard to know which games really have a lot more value than others..IMO

[Regul8er]

Flat Betting for me.
When you raise the stakes and go on a hot streak, most will continue to keep the stakes raised, until they eventually go cold (which is inevitable) then chase with even larger wagers.

Flat Betting keeps you in the game, and if you truly are a 55%+ capper, your going to win.....and you don't have to worry if your large wagers lose.

[Zeit05]

No sh** Sherlock (to the OP). Enlightening......

[Sawyer]

Flat Betting for me.
When you raise the stakes and go on a hot streak, most will continue to keep the stakes raised, until they eventually go cold (which is inevitable) then chase with even larger wagers.

Flat Betting keeps you in the game, and if you truly are a 55%+ capper, your going to win.....and you don't have to worry if your large wagers lose.

Well said man. Agreed %100.

I'm doing the same thing in my NBA Thread. No 4/10 or 7/10 stake system. Flat Betting.

[BetaB]

nice discussion very helpful.

[hockeynut]

This is very helpful I think. I recently just got into sports betting. I joined bet365. I have not had any luck yet though. Amazingly I haven't won a single game yet and I'm in the hole $45. I think what my problem is I'm looking at lines that don't look good and doing things to bring up the pay, and also doing stupid crap like parlays.

I'm not betting a lot on each game though, maybe like $5-10 on each bet. So my winnings would be slim. I guess this is part of my problem.

Lost on Monday because the Colts or Texans couldn't get one more TD to go over the 50.5. I did get the spread for the Colts but because I lost the other part of the Parlay I lost the bet. I think I will just forget parlays. Or just do them once in a while.

I think that I need to focus less on the pay and just place the bet regardless of what the pay will be. Eventually I will develop a winning formula and eventually get to a balance where I can start betting more, and making more without changing my strategy.

[brumbies]

Kelly staking is very risky. It's a form of chasing since you are placing different amount of money on each game. Lets say $1000 on the game with the highest probability and maybe $100 on the one with the lowest probability and $500 on the one with medium probability. What happens if they all lose? Your bankroll will take a huge hit(-$1600) as compared to if you flat bet where the most you will lose is 3units + juice.

[AribaAriba]

This is very helpful I think. I recently just got into sports betting. I joined bet365. I have not had any luck yet though. Amazingly I haven't won a single game yet and I'm in the hole $45. I think what my problem is I'm looking at lines that don't look good and doing things to bring up the pay, and also doing stupid crap like parlays. I'm not betting a lot on each game though, maybe like $5-10 on each bet. So my winnings would be slim. I guess this is part of my problem. Lost on Monday because the Colts or Texans couldn't get one more TD to go over the 50.5. I did get the spread for the Colts but because I lost the other part of the Parlay I lost the bet. I think I will just forget parlays. Or just do them once in a while. I think that I need to focus less on the pay and just place the bet regardless of what the pay will be. Eventually I will develop a winning formula and eventually get to a balance where I can start betting more, and making more without changing my strategy.

i live in toronto and wud love to be your bookie mayb start posting ur picks and we'll see from there

[donjuan]

Kelly staking is very risky. It's a form of chasing since you are placing different amount of money on each game. Lets say $1000 on the game with the highest probability and maybe $100 on the one with the lowest probability and $500 on the one with medium probability. What happens if they all lose? Your bankroll will take a huge hit(-$1600) as compared to if you flat bet where the most you will lose is 3units + juice.

Explain how Kelly is a form of chasing when you lower your bet size as your bankroll decreases. And use actual math or logic, not random anecdotes.

[madmiek]

Ive been betting for a year now and flat betting has worked for me. Mostly on NFL games, i usually go with money lines. In some games yeah i use the spread but even this past 2 weeks as crazy as they were i came out even. I also have a question for you guys. If for the past 4 years i avg between 160-175 games right and 80-95 in the NFL straight betting on money lines , is there anyway to lose money with a flat betting system?