1. 10-11-10 03:55 PM #1
    Regul8er
    Wordd
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    NBA - Important Statistical Numbers

    I lurk the think tank quite often, but don't really respond....as I leave it to the experts (which I'm not or don't claim to be)

    When studying NBA.....what statistics are important for us to know?

    Could a few of you maybe give me a top 3 list. For example, rest (back to back, 4 games in 5 nights, 3 days rest....etc), Offensive/Defensive Efficiency, Free Throw Percentage, Point off Turnovers?????

    And does anyone have or know where I could obtain some of the data not clearly listed in a boxscore, such as the stats I listed above.

    Any help would be appreciated, as I'm trying to improve to my success in the NBA.
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  2. 10-11-10 04:43 PM #2
    Peregrine Stoop
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    APBR is a good resource for looking to answers to this type of question
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  3. 10-11-10 09:56 PM #3
    Wrecktangle
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    Injuries, FG%, turnovers
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  4. 10-12-10 06:10 AM #4
    shearer
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    http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewforum.php?f=1
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  5. 10-12-10 01:49 PM #5
    Diesel79
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    Few things I keep in my mind when I study NBA games....

    1. Does certain team has recently shown killer instinct.... do they play with everything they have from start of the game and keep this intensity level until they have 25-30 point lead. Do they want to put games away as soon as possible or do they let other teams hang around until 4-th quarter. I make a game log from every NBA game and put scoring numbers in to my spreadsheet after every 2 minutes played. This way I get 24 numbers to every game which shows me exactly how dominant team is and how they play games.

    2. Rest and Travel. You really cant expect a blowout when team has 4th game in 5 nights.... or lets say back to back and first game is in Miami and next one in LA (thats like a 5-6 hour flight).... or back to back game and all starters from last game played 45+ minutes for example

    3. Lots of situational things..... like first home game after long road trip which I almost never bet. Last game before all-star break ( some players and teams are already in vacation in their minds and really dont care about that game)..... Im always careful with day games (lots of upsets there).... National TV games (to some players this is extra motivation)..... and so on

    4. Statistics. From boxscore I look things like rebounding differential, scoring balance and how much bench supports starters.... also opponent FG%. Basically things that might show domination over opponents. For example I dont see how can FT% show me anything... but earned free throws can show how agressive team is...

    Few things that helped me to improve my NBA capping abilities..... make a bloq (just to yourself) and write down all your thoughts before the game and all the reasons why you decided to bet certain game.... this way you can analyse later your own thoughtprocess and what you did right and wrong

    Another thing that helped me a lot is that I try NEVER watch the game I bet.... It can really screw up everything when there is a huge comeback from other team and you lose because some unbelievable stupid mistakes and bad luck at the end of the game.... I always started chasing after that and lost big time but I dont do it If I dont watch it in real time.

    I hope it was helpful
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  6. 10-12-10 02:46 PM #6
    Regul8er
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    Diesel79......Great post brother. Things that constantly cross our minds, but having a step by step sheet is certainly beneficial.

    APBR is above my head. I don't have the statistical background to even pretend like I understand the analysis and theories that have been developed.

    I came across a website, NBAstuffer.com. They seem to have some tremendous information that's very user friendly, including the 2010-11 Reg Season Schedule, and Previous Season Box Score Stats dating back to 06-07 season (including rest info, lines, quarter by quarter scoring, etc..)

    The Schedule has the rest info broken down such as B2B, 3IN4-B2B, 4IN5, etc......
    I could gather this info, but it would be time consuming.

    This website charges for each spreadsheet. Has anyone purchased these sheets by any chance? If so, I would be willing to throw you a fair amount of points as compensation. Let me know ladies and gents. Thanks
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  7. 10-12-10 02:59 PM #7
    nastradamus
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    good site where u can find schedule for all teams at one site (b2b, 4in5, etc) is: http://rotoguru.net/hoop/schedule.html
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  8. 10-12-10 03:42 PM #8
    Diesel79
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    I think you like this site.... hoopsstats.com. All game stats since 97-98 season and thousand different ways to sort it.... individual player stats, team stats, starters stats, bench stats, points from the paint, records against winning teams and losing teams and so on.... the most advanced NBA database I have found in internet....and its free. Only downside is that you cant copy-paste straight from there because they have some program that wont allow.... but it lets you to save webpage you want to your PC as a HTML webpage and from that saved webpage you can make copy-paste to spreadsheet.
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  9. 10-13-10 01:28 PM #9
    Regul8er
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    Diesel79.....nice site man. Only thing I'm struggling with is the fact that it's not overly user-friendly.

    Does anyone have the sheets from NBAstuffer.com that cost money? I figured I would make a last effort! Thanks
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  10. 10-24-10 10:12 AM #10
    VegasVixen
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    I found an easy way to make an excel workbook with each team's schedule on a different page...
    Go to teamrankings.com. Look at NBA teams, click a team and you will see their schedule for the season. Open excel then click the data tab > get external data > from web. Import into excel directly from the site. Make a new page for the next team & repeat.
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  11. 10-24-10 03:01 PM #11
    cala56
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    Thanks for the instruction.
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  12. 10-25-10 09:11 AM #12
    eonizuka
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    I like looking at the average opp FG% of the team I'm betting vs the FG% for that night. Looking at home/away and what games were played just before and are coming up also factor in for me. A lot of other variables but those are the biggies for me.
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  13. 10-25-10 09:34 AM #13
    VegasVixen
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    Awhile back I read this in a different forum and copied it for NBA...
    I don't have the guy's name to give him the credit for the post but here's what he said:
    "i would like to pass something on to you that i learned a few years
    ago when i took a graduate level Statistics class. For one whole year we
    tracked and studied all the stats for every NBA team and then ran them
    through several statistics programs to determine P values of each statistic.
    (P value indicated the value and accuracy of each statistic.) We determined
    that the 6 most important statistics in the NBA were:
    Field goals made
    Field goals attempted
    Defensive rebounds
    Turnovers
    Personal fouls
    Steals
    Anyways i just wanted to pass some information on to you..maybe you can use
    it to tinker with your system."
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  14. 10-26-10 06:45 AM #14
    LarryF
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    Interesting stats and they seem very basic, make more field goals, limit your competitors chances and play good D.
    Thanks for the post.
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  15. 10-26-10 07:32 AM #15
    Joe Dogs
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    Effective field goal % + (3 pt shots made)
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  16. 10-31-10 09:37 AM #16
    pm9964
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    Quote Originally Posted by nastradamus View Post
    good site where u can find schedule for all teams at one site (b2b, 4in5, etc) is: http://rotoguru.net/hoop/schedule.html

    great website, thanks
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