[Brp27345]

I broke down EVERY single game from the '08-'09 season and the '09-'10 season and came up with one single situation to bet when it happens going into the 2nd half on an NBA game...

I since then backtracked another season to see if the given trend... (which not only shows positive numbers, but also makes logical sense)... would continue back for another season... so I backtested the '07-'08 season so far... Here are the numbers I have gotten thus far...

2007 (47-25) 65.28%
2008 (34-26) 56.67%
2009 (45-21) 67.16%

These numbers total out over the course of 3 years to a combined record of...

Total '07-'09 (126-72) 63.64%

What my questions for all of you are...

1.) Is this game sample size close to big enough to make this worth betting???
2.) Even though the sample size is 200 games... is the fact that it is over the course of 3 seasons make it a more respectable sample size?
3.) If the answer is no to either of these questions, how many seasons should I go back to continue to do the backtesting? (Now that I know what I am looking for I can do an entire season in under 3 hours)
4.) If you have any other advice or opinions they would be greatly appreciated!!!

Thanks so much in advance... Brian

[TakeIt]

I broke down EVERY single game from the '08-'09 season and the '09-'10 season and came up with one single situation to bet when it happens going into the 2nd half on an NBA game...

I since then backtracked another season to see if the given trend... (which not only shows positive numbers, but also makes logical sense)... would continue back for another season... so I backtested the '07-'08 season so far... Here are the numbers I have gotten thus far...

2007 (47-25) 65.28%
2008 (34-26) 56.67%
2009 (45-21) 67.16%

These numbers total out over the course of 3 years to a combined record of...

Total '07-'09 (126-72) 63.64%

What my questions for all of you are...

1.) Is this game sample size close to big enough to make this worth betting???
2.) Even though the sample size is 200 games... is the fact that it is over the course of 3 seasons make it a more respectable sample size?
3.) If the answer is no to either of these questions, how many seasons should I go back to continue to do the backtesting? (Now that I know what I am looking for I can do an entire season in under 3 hours)
4.) If you have any other advice or opinions they would be greatly appreciated!!!

Thanks so much in advance... Brian

i've backtested quite a few things over a 7-10 year span, and even though there were some great years there were also some lousy years, which tends too cool off the enthusiasm.

i was always looking for that great idea that worked every year. i found a couple, but there were so few bets i just didn't think they were viable.

if your discovery is purely a numbers based idea; i guess it could be valid. just don't be disappointed if this year it hits 46%.

good luck

[Brp27345]

i've backtested quite a few things over a 7-10 year span, and even though there were some great years there were also some lousy years, which tends too cool off the enthusiasm. i was always looking for that great idea that worked every year. i found a couple, but there were so few bets i just didn't think they were viable. if your discovery is purely a numbers based idea; i guess it could be valid. just don't be disappointed if this year it hits 46%. good luck

Thanks man... I will go back some more season... I know what you mean about finding a golden idea only to get let down by past seasons... I think 60 or so bets a season makes it viable... but let's see if I go back 7 years or so if it continues to turn a profit... thanks for the advice... appreciate it!!!

[SolidDala]

If a season takes about 3 hours, then I would go back 10y and spend those hard 30h and not bet any before I did this with real cash. Those 30 hours could turn out to be your best investment in capping! BOL with it!

[Brp27345]

If a season takes about 3 hours, then I would go back 10y and spend those hard 30h and not bet any before I did this with real cash. Those 30 hours could turn out to be your best investment in capping! BOL with it!

good advice... worth the time I'm guessing!

[Brp27345]

To those of you that care... I completed another season... not great... but not bad either...

2006 (44-36) 55.00%

New 4 year total...

Total '06-'09 (170-108) 61.15%

Again thoughts and opinions appreciated...

[Justin7]

I'd love to study these systems. Second half markets are relatively inefficient. Is this versus openers or closers? Either way, I bet you could crush these until the market catches up.

[Brp27345]

I'd love to study these systems. Second half markets are relatively inefficient. Is this versus openers or closers? Either way, I bet you could crush these until the market catches up.

These are based on closers... game lines and 2nd half lines... hoping I can crush it... would love it that would happen...
Hit me up via msg if ur interested... I could use some financial backing if u want the info... lmao

[Brp27345]

I completed another season... pretty good again...

2005 (45-33) 57.69%

New 5 year total...

Total '05-'09 (215-141) 60.39%

[sneak-a-peak]

I completed another season... pretty good again...

2005 (45-33) 57.69%

New 5 year total...

Total '05-'09 (215-141) 60.39%

Thats a very good edge for 5 straight seasons

[Brp27345]

Thats a very good edge for 5 straight seasons

Thanks man... yea can't complain about 55% as the "off" year so far over a 5 year period... gonna keep on going back til 2000 I think if I can... will let all of u know the final results...

[Brp27345]

I completed another season... BARELY beat the vig... hope this is the worst year... still not bad!!!

2004 (47-42) 52.81%

New 6 year total...

Total '04-'09 (262-183) 58.88%

[dimon]

hey man, what is the edge that you are using?

[Highland]

PM sent

[Indecent]

Your record should be the games that you didn't use to develop your hypothesis. Its accuracy moving forward will probably be closer to the accuracy from 19/20XX-07 (and games from 2010 and beyond) than 08-09.

[craigpb]

Keep digging; hope you can use it this season.

[sneak-a-peak]

Are you going to dig up any more years with this?

[Brp27345]

had a bunch of time one the weekend... back in school mode for the week... hopefully will get some more work done on it this weekend... will post the stats at that point... thanks for the continued interest... hope I can help out a bit if it turns out to work...

By the way I am planning on depositing 1k to do this with... tentatively planning... for the start of the NBA season...

Should I deposit 1k on 5Dimes or into The Greek...

at 5 Dimes I can get -105 juice... at The Green I can get $210 cash... opinions on that would be appreciated!!!

[wrongturn]

5D has full juice on 2H lines. But, you can buy/sell some points, unlike Greek.

[Brp27345]

5D has full juice on 2H lines. But, you can buy/sell some points, unlike Greek.

great info thanks! buying points does not interest me... so TheGreek it is... unless someone else has some ideas?

[wrongturn]

great info thanks! buying points does not interest me... so TheGreek it is... unless someone else has some ideas?

Actually take a look at Matchbook. 99% of time it has the best price and lowest juice.

[Brp27345]

not a fan of Matchbook... so any last opinions b4 I make a BIG deposit into TheGreek?

[Data]

It is hard to imagine that with a small 1K deposit you cannot get a better deal at a rec book (5Dimes) comparing to a pro book (TheGreek). Try calling 5Dimes.

[kmarinouofm]

5 dimes doesn't give any bonuses

[Data]

5 dimes doesn't give any bonuses

...while TheGreek apparently does. This could be true, my bad... It boggles the mind, though... 5Dimes used to offer a choice of either a bonus or rebate, or low juice. Anyway, making a call won't hurt.

[Brp27345]

...while TheGreek apparently does. This could be true, my bad... It boggles the mind, though... 5Dimes used to offer a choice of either a bonus or rebate, or low juice. Anyway, making a call won't hurt.

Yea man called both sites... 5 dimes offers reduced juice... or a bonus that is not as appealing as TheGreek... the issue is though they don't have reduced juice on halftime lines so they basically offer me nothing...

Have to go with TheGreek I guess...

[wrongturn]

If you really care about low juice for 2H line, you need to use Matchbook. Often it has 1-cent lines! But since you don't like MB, it does not really matter in any A or B book you choose, because they all have 20-cent line and all are fine with 1K bankroll players.

[Brp27345]

If you really care about low juice for 2H line, you need to use Matchbook. Often it has 1-cent lines! But since you don't like MB, it does not really matter in any A or B book you choose, because they all have 20-cent line and all are fine with 1K bankroll players.

I've often been interested in Matchbook but I don't completely understand it... I know their is something like a commission fee on the bets even though there are 1 cent lines... also is it possible to use Matchbook as a U.S. player... and with the fees can u actually get better lines when you break it down?

Lastly are there any bonuses on matchbook... please let me know I would really appreciate it... how do i deposit there?

[wrongturn]

I've often been interested in Matchbook but I don't completely understand it... I know their is something like a commission fee on the bets even though there are 1 cent lines... also is it possible to use Matchbook as a U.S. player... and with the fees can u actually get better lines when you break it down?

Lastly are there any bonuses on matchbook... please let me know I would really appreciate it... how do i deposit there?

Commission is 1% if you take available offers, reducing the odds by roughly 2 cent, which should still be better than full juice line. If you provide offers, no commission. You will figure it out.

MB has no bonus, and deposit there is not easy for U.S. players. Check the site for details.

[Brp27345]

Commission is 1% if you take available offers, reducing the odds by roughly 2 cent, which should still be better than full juice line. If you provide offers, no commission. You will figure it out. MB has no bonus, and deposit there is not easy for U.S. players. Check the site for details.

will have to look into it thanks... making the deposit soon!

[Peregrine Stoop]

out with the angle already

[subs]

^^ +1

:d

[mlzeee]

I've always loved using 5-dimes

[djiddish98]

I broke down EVERY single game from the '08-'09 season and the '09-'10 season and came up with one single situation to bet when it happens going into the 2nd half on an NBA game...

2008 (34-26) 56.67%
2009 (45-21) 67.16%

I think it would be proper to toss out the 2008 and 2009 seasons (assuming these are the two you developed you methodology with when you say '08-'09 and '09-'10). See what the record is on the non data-mined sample.

[Brp27345]

lol sorry guys... been told by too many people not to give out the info... got offered 5K last year for it when I was posting the picks and they were hitting at a crazy percentage... and have already gotten 5 or 10 offers this year for $500 and up for the system again... and I have refined it even more going into this year