Proposal:
I'd like to quantify winning percentages into a meaningful stat.
Let me mention, I'm NOT able to write code and I'm adaquately serviceable with Excel, but somewhat limited when using it's more complex capabilities. For discussion's sake, lets surmise the Angels are playing the Rangers and I want to reach a winning probability using the following stats ONLY!
Overall Seasonal Records
Home/Away Record
Record against >.500 teams, <.500 teams
Obviously, this will not become a profitable betting solution, but I need to understand the process for other similar endeavors.
Angels:
Overall: 55-48 53%
H/A: 27-25 52%
>.500 24-23 51%
Rangers:
Overall: 59-44 57%
H/A: 34-19 64%
>.500 26-24 52%
My question is this. How do I derive a winning probability of a Texas/Angels matchup using 3 sets of data from each team? What would the formula look like if written into Excel?
I understand Bill James' work and I currently make use of his Log5 formula. Of course, that's using winning percentages from both teams. I don't know how to assimilate sets of data so that the winning percentages can be converted to correct probability.
Any help is greatly appreciated...
I'd like to quantify winning percentages into a meaningful stat.
Let me mention, I'm NOT able to write code and I'm adaquately serviceable with Excel, but somewhat limited when using it's more complex capabilities. For discussion's sake, lets surmise the Angels are playing the Rangers and I want to reach a winning probability using the following stats ONLY!
Overall Seasonal Records
Home/Away Record
Record against >.500 teams, <.500 teams
Obviously, this will not become a profitable betting solution, but I need to understand the process for other similar endeavors.
Angels:
Overall: 55-48 53%
H/A: 27-25 52%
>.500 24-23 51%
Rangers:
Overall: 59-44 57%
H/A: 34-19 64%
>.500 26-24 52%
My question is this. How do I derive a winning probability of a Texas/Angels matchup using 3 sets of data from each team? What would the formula look like if written into Excel?
I understand Bill James' work and I currently make use of his Log5 formula. Of course, that's using winning percentages from both teams. I don't know how to assimilate sets of data so that the winning percentages can be converted to correct probability.
Any help is greatly appreciated...