[statictheory]

one thing is: THE BEST PRO BETTOR THAT WE KNOW OF : BILLY WALTERS

YOU WILL NOT KNOW WHO HE IS BETTING ON MORE THAN THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO WIN IF U GET THE BEST # BY COMPARING THE OPENING LINE AND CLOSING LINE

IN FACT HE FUKS AROUND JUST FOR FUN HE HATES MOST OF THE PEOPLE IN THIS FORUM WHO DO NOT BET BASED ON THIER OWN MODELS AND I DONT THINK THE PROS IN HERE BESIDES MAYBE 10% IN THE POOL BET THIER OWN PLAYS.

if everyone was doing the same thing there wouldnt be anything to bet on he fuks around just for fun he gets a thrill out of it.

its other syndicates that like to pound their chest and show off and dont mind people knowing..not walters and he wins more

huh? try some commas and periods. have no idea what your trying to say

[Winner_13]

it was really late at night i was tired.

sum it up:
billy walters will manipulate the line in such a way that the closing line is not reflective of his play.

he is the best pro bettor we know. He has had cbb seasons of 57% and up. more importantly he is not betting 1-2 units like ras his scale is more like 1-100.

in this case the closing line isn't the most efficent since he manipulatates its it

[Winner_13]

billy can get down anywhere in the world heres an example of one of his tricks.

line opens -10.
he likes the team +10.
he hits -10 at pinny every1 follows -12.
he hits Alaska bookie +12 and china bookie +11.5.
now line may move to -11.5 slow moving books dont care much since its some add on cbb game and they stay with -10.5 now ppl hit -10.5 thinking they got a gd bet pinny/cris/greek -11 or more.

billy is happy he hates those guys

NOTE** THIS ALSO LETS HIM GET DOWN MORE $ ON A GAME ( THATS ANOTHER SECRET REVEALED ON HOW HE GETS DOWN SO MUCH HE CAN HIT THE LINE AS MANY TIMES AS POSSIBLE AND WILL HIT IT AGAIN AT+10 IF HE DOES NOT GET DOWN DESIRED AMOUNT)




i do believe market is efficent however other syndicates dont care and don't mind showing every1 who they bet on. but the best guy makes it so you cant follow him but u can follow the other lesser performing sharps.

[Winner_13]

hopefully theres gd feedback on my post and this thread continues

[acw]

china bookie +11.5.

Any idea which China bookie?

By the way is this Walters not bankrupt?
http://www.stevemiller4lasvegas.com/...sSlamDunk.html

[Winner_13]

it is not significant what china bookie. that is besides the point.
and not going to bother reading the article as BW is still betting and doing well everyone informed knows that

point is yes market is efficient to a certain extent.
not efficient enough that you cant beat closing lines as the elitist can most of us here are not in that category that's why for example when the guy that made the post probably beat the closing line a couple times and was frustrated as he thought he would win at a higher clip and questioned market efficiency , he is not following the elitist necessarily but still following guys that win at 53%.

i wanted to hold off on this post as i enjoyed the discussion in this thread

[acw]

BW is still betting and doing well everyone informed knows that

Ok, so how much and at what prices does he have on New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints?

[Winner_13]

when did i say i know that?
BW is still betting.
SBRTV does interviews with Head linesmen from legends he talks about billy still betting.
Why dont u ask them what billy is betting on?

seems like u are attacking me and wanting to argue that BW is the best gambler we know.
I'm not going to argue with you about this unless u can show me evidence he is not betting anymore?
he was on CNN last year and saying he is betting daily, he won 3 million off saints in superbowl it showed? Duno what u want but this thread isnt about bW betting

[suicidekings]

By the way is this Walters not bankrupt?
http://www.stevemiller4lasvegas.com/...sSlamDunk.html

That article was from 6 years ago and discussed a somewhat risky investment BW was involved in. It worked out well for him...

[Winner_13]

i really was hoping the discussion would continue.

perhaps justin7 will comment on my posts when he has time

[wantitall4moi]

There is a winner and a loser on every game in spread based sports. And before you start talking about pushes. In over 100K games in the NFL, NBA, NCAA hoops and football, with 200K+ betting options (and thats just full game sides and totals and not half time stuff) there have been less than 100 times when you absolutely could not (in the dozen or so books I can datamine) find a line that wouldnt have been a winner. So beating anything is irrelevant, having the ability more often than not to have the right side matters most. Which is an ability not many people have, at least not consistently enough.

Thats why all this other bullshit comes in like...getting the best line, getting the best price, betting this much when youre "+ev", and any other theory so called geniuses want to come up with.

If you are really good enough to win then bargain shopping and balancing your checkbook every tieme isnt going to be a necessity, it just helps you show a better profit.

What getting all the angles does is turn guys who are marginal into possible winners. So a guy getting +125 versus a guy getting +130 the guy who gets +130 might be worse than the guy getting +125 in the long run but lose less or maybe win more because he gets better odds more often. So basically bargain shoppers and guys who get the best lines/odds more often than not get a +3-4% margin of error. Which is enough to turn a coin flipper into a guy margianlly profitable. But it turns a guy with actual ability into a superstar. Its sort of like steroids.

And seriously all the BW talk. NO ONE, I repeat NO ONE knows what that guy does, I doubt he even knows. The guy stole and cheated more money out of people than he will ever win gambling. So it doesnt really matter. And there is no way to prove or disprove if he is any good or not. A couple years of doing what everyone else was doing but being dumb enough to let the books figure it out is all he can claim. because serously if BW was half as smart as people give him credit for he wouldnt have let everyone know what he was doing and wouldnt have closed all the loop holes and advantages guys had. So to think he still has success now is a stretch, but I guess it is possible. But I would say unlikely. But the legend goes on because enough people believe it and enough people claim to know. But those guys are full of shit in the biggest way. they can guess or speculate but no one knows. And that is the greatest thing about that guy is that he gets credit for stuff he didnt do and probably does stuff he doesnt get the credit or blame for.

Good discussion but I have said it forever, the fallacy that beating the closing line, will make you a winner is hogwash. Even beating best available will only make a coin flip guy marginally better. Because a coin flipper is still going to pick the 'wrong' side of the 'best' number half the time. so if a game has spread of say -4 and +6.5 The guy will bet the -4 and the team will lose SU or not win by enough just as often as he will bet the +6.5 when the team loses by whatever. And the times he get the 6.5 and the team loses by 5 or 6 will be so miniscule that it wont register enough to make a difference over his lifetime. In other words if the guy makes 20k bets in his life, and he got the 'right' side of a line 500 times, and of those 500 times it matter 15. Then thats 15 times out of 20000 times that he won instead of lost or pushed. So insignificant as to not register. But all people focus on is they got the 'right' side of the line 500 times. But it didnt matter 485 of those times.

To most people all this doesnt matter. All the theory and make believe stuff goes out the window when you bet, especially if youre in Vegas. If youre in town you bet whatever number is at whatever casino you are in whenever you place the bet. The line might be -5. it might have been -3.5 2 days ago and still -4 up the street, but you bet -5 because it is the number where you are now. And that is how it is with just about everyone. The online version of this is seeing a dozen books (you cant play at) with -4 and the 3 books you have an account at have numbers ranging from -5 to -6. You cant bet the 4 so you take the 5 because it is the best option available. Now does it matter? Like I said probably not in the long run, but if that game does come in with a 21-17 score it will matter to you then thats for sure. But in the long term it is just a bad beat. But you also tok a number you knew wasnt the best out of necessity or convenience. So worrying about all the strict 'rules' all the sharp guys claim are irrelevant anyway because you cant follow them anyway. The 'best' option would have been to take +6. And the next best option would have been to not play the game at all. But most people, especially coin flipper types dont think that way. Which goes to my original points.

[Winner_13]

gd post pokerjoe however in recent interviews doc headlinesmen still says billy to day is the best and mickey at CRIS says billy is the best but they have a btr 2nd half bettor i think its.chinamen. i duno what u mean by billy let every1 know? could u plz explain that as i explained u dont know what billy is doing

[sideloaded]

There is a winner and a loser on every game in spread based sports. And before you start talking about pushes. In over 100K games in the NFL, NBA, NCAA hoops and football, with 200K+ betting options (and thats just full game sides and totals and not half time stuff) there have been less than 100 times when you absolutely could not (in the dozen or so books I can datamine) find a line that wouldnt have been a winner. So beating anything is irrelevant, having the ability more often than not to have the right side matters most. Which is an ability not many people have, at least not consistently enough.

Thats why all this other bullshit comes in like...getting the best line, getting the best price, betting this much when youre "+ev", and any other theory so called geniuses want to come up with.

If you are really good enough to win then bargain shopping and balancing your checkbook every tieme isnt going to be a necessity, it just helps you show a better profit.

What getting all the angles does is turn guys who are marginal into possible winners. So a guy getting +125 versus a guy getting +130 the guy who gets +130 might be worse than the guy getting +125 in the long run but lose less or maybe win more because he gets better odds more often. So basically bargain shoppers and guys who get the best lines/odds more often than not get a +3-4% margin of error. Which is enough to turn a coin flipper into a guy margianlly profitable. But it turns a guy with actual ability into a superstar. Its sort of like steroids.

And seriously all the BW talk. NO ONE, I repeat NO ONE knows what that guy does, I doubt he even knows. The guy stole and cheated more money out of people than he will ever win gambling. So it doesnt really matter. And there is no way to prove or disprove if he is any good or not. A couple years of doing what everyone else was doing but being dumb enough to let the books figure it out is all he can claim. because serously if BW was half as smart as people give him credit for he wouldnt have let everyone know what he was doing and wouldnt have closed all the loop holes and advantages guys had. So to think he still has success now is a stretch, but I guess it is possible. But I would say unlikely. But the legend goes on because enough people believe it and enough people claim to know. But those guys are full of shit in the biggest way. they can guess or speculate but no one knows. And that is the greatest thing about that guy is that he gets credit for stuff he didnt do and probably does stuff he doesnt get the credit or blame for.

Good discussion but I have said it forever, the fallacy that beating the closing line, will make you a winner is hogwash. Even beating best available will only make a coin flip guy marginally better. Because a coin flipper is still going to pick the 'wrong' side of the 'best' number half the time. so if a game has spread of say -4 and +6.5 The guy will bet the -4 and the team will lose SU or not win by enough just as often as he will bet the +6.5 when the team loses by whatever. And the times he get the 6.5 and the team loses by 5 or 6 will be so miniscule that it wont register enough to make a difference over his lifetime. In other words if the guy makes 20k bets in his life, and he got the 'right' side of a line 500 times, and of those 500 times it matter 15. Then thats 15 times out of 20000 times that he won instead of lost or pushed. So insignificant as to not register. But all people focus on is they got the 'right' side of the line 500 times. But it didnt matter 485 of those times.

To most people all this doesnt matter. All the theory and make believe stuff goes out the window when you bet, especially if youre in Vegas. If youre in town you bet whatever number is at whatever casino you are in whenever you place the bet. The line might be -5. it might have been -3.5 2 days ago and still -4 up the street, but you bet -5 because it is the number where you are now. And that is how it is with just about everyone. The online version of this is seeing a dozen books (you cant play at) with -4 and the 3 books you have an account at have numbers ranging from -5 to -6. You cant bet the 4 so you take the 5 because it is the best option available. Now does it matter? Like I said probably not in the long run, but if that game does come in with a 21-17 score it will matter to you then thats for sure. But in the long term it is just a bad beat. But you also tok a number you knew wasnt the best out of necessity or convenience. So worrying about all the strict 'rules' all the sharp guys claim are irrelevant anyway because you cant follow them anyway. The 'best' option would have been to take +6. And the next best option would have been to not play the game at all. But most people, especially coin flipper types dont think that way. Which goes to my original points.

wow, you're retarded

[FourLengthsClear]

There is a winner and a loser on every game in spread based sports. And before you start talking about pushes. In over 100K games in the NFL, NBA, NCAA hoops and football, with 200K+ betting options (and thats just full game sides and totals and not half time stuff) there have been less than 100 times when you absolutely could not (in the dozen or so books I can datamine) find a line that wouldnt have been a winner. So beating anything is irrelevant, having the ability more often than not to have the right side matters most. Which is an ability not many people have, at least not consistently enough.

Thats why all this other bullshit comes in like...getting the best line, getting the best price, betting this much when youre "+ev", and any other theory so called geniuses want to come up with.

If you are really good enough to win then bargain shopping and balancing your checkbook every tieme isnt going to be a necessity, it just helps you show a better profit.

What getting all the angles does is turn guys who are marginal into possible winners. So a guy getting +125 versus a guy getting +130 the guy who gets +130 might be worse than the guy getting +125 in the long run but lose less or maybe win more because he gets better odds more often. So basically bargain shoppers and guys who get the best lines/odds more often than not get a +3-4% margin of error. Which is enough to turn a coin flipper into a guy margianlly profitable. But it turns a guy with actual ability into a superstar. Its sort of like steroids.

And seriously all the BW talk. NO ONE, I repeat NO ONE knows what that guy does, I doubt he even knows. The guy stole and cheated more money out of people than he will ever win gambling. So it doesnt really matter. And there is no way to prove or disprove if he is any good or not. A couple years of doing what everyone else was doing but being dumb enough to let the books figure it out is all he can claim. because serously if BW was half as smart as people give him credit for he wouldnt have let everyone know what he was doing and wouldnt have closed all the loop holes and advantages guys had. So to think he still has success now is a stretch, but I guess it is possible. But I would say unlikely. But the legend goes on because enough people believe it and enough people claim to know. But those guys are full of shit in the biggest way. they can guess or speculate but no one knows. And that is the greatest thing about that guy is that he gets credit for stuff he didnt do and probably does stuff he doesnt get the credit or blame for.

Good discussion but I have said it forever, the fallacy that beating the closing line, will make you a winner is hogwash. Even beating best available will only make a coin flip guy marginally better. Because a coin flipper is still going to pick the 'wrong' side of the 'best' number half the time. so if a game has spread of say -4 and +6.5 The guy will bet the -4 and the team will lose SU or not win by enough just as often as he will bet the +6.5 when the team loses by whatever. And the times he get the 6.5 and the team loses by 5 or 6 will be so miniscule that it wont register enough to make a difference over his lifetime. In other words if the guy makes 20k bets in his life, and he got the 'right' side of a line 500 times, and of those 500 times it matter 15. Then thats 15 times out of 20000 times that he won instead of lost or pushed. So insignificant as to not register. But all people focus on is they got the 'right' side of the line 500 times. But it didnt matter 485 of those times.

To most people all this doesnt matter. All the theory and make believe stuff goes out the window when you bet, especially if youre in Vegas. If youre in town you bet whatever number is at whatever casino you are in whenever you place the bet. The line might be -5. it might have been -3.5 2 days ago and still -4 up the street, but you bet -5 because it is the number where you are now. And that is how it is with just about everyone. The online version of this is seeing a dozen books (you cant play at) with -4 and the 3 books you have an account at have numbers ranging from -5 to -6. You cant bet the 4 so you take the 5 because it is the best option available. Now does it matter? Like I said probably not in the long run, but if that game does come in with a 21-17 score it will matter to you then thats for sure. But in the long term it is just a bad beat. But you also tok a number you knew wasnt the best out of necessity or convenience. So worrying about all the strict 'rules' all the sharp guys claim are irrelevant anyway because you cant follow them anyway. The 'best' option would have been to take +6. And the next best option would have been to not play the game at all. But most people, especially coin flipper types dont think that way. Which goes to my original points.

LOL.

[Pancho sanza]

There is a winner and a loser on every game in spread based sports. And before you start talking about pushes. In over 100K games in the NFL, NBA, NCAA hoops and football, with 200K+ betting options (and thats just full game sides and totals and not half time stuff) there have been less than 100 times when you absolutely could not (in the dozen or so books I can datamine) find a line that wouldnt have been a winner. So beating anything is irrelevant, having the ability more often than not to have the right side matters most. Which is an ability not many people have, at least not consistently enough.

Thats why all this other bullshit comes in like...getting the best line, getting the best price, betting this much when youre "+ev", and any other theory so called geniuses want to come up with.

If you are really good enough to win then bargain shopping and balancing your checkbook every tieme isnt going to be a necessity, it just helps you show a better profit.

What getting all the angles does is turn guys who are marginal into possible winners. So a guy getting +125 versus a guy getting +130 the guy who gets +130 might be worse than the guy getting +125 in the long run but lose less or maybe win more because he gets better odds more often. So basically bargain shoppers and guys who get the best lines/odds more often than not get a +3-4% margin of error. Which is enough to turn a coin flipper into a guy margianlly profitable. But it turns a guy with actual ability into a superstar. Its sort of like steroids.

And seriously all the BW talk. NO ONE, I repeat NO ONE knows what that guy does, I doubt he even knows. The guy stole and cheated more money out of people than he will ever win gambling. So it doesnt really matter. And there is no way to prove or disprove if he is any good or not. A couple years of doing what everyone else was doing but being dumb enough to let the books figure it out is all he can claim. because serously if BW was half as smart as people give him credit for he wouldnt have let everyone know what he was doing and wouldnt have closed all the loop holes and advantages guys had. So to think he still has success now is a stretch, but I guess it is possible. But I would say unlikely. But the legend goes on because enough people believe it and enough people claim to know. But those guys are full of shit in the biggest way. they can guess or speculate but no one knows. And that is the greatest thing about that guy is that he gets credit for stuff he didnt do and probably does stuff he doesnt get the credit or blame for.

Good discussion but I have said it forever, the fallacy that beating the closing line, will make you a winner is hogwash. Even beating best available will only make a coin flip guy marginally better. Because a coin flipper is still going to pick the 'wrong' side of the 'best' number half the time. so if a game has spread of say -4 and +6.5 The guy will bet the -4 and the team will lose SU or not win by enough just as often as he will bet the +6.5 when the team loses by whatever. And the times he get the 6.5 and the team loses by 5 or 6 will be so miniscule that it wont register enough to make a difference over his lifetime. In other words if the guy makes 20k bets in his life, and he got the 'right' side of a line 500 times, and of those 500 times it matter 15. Then thats 15 times out of 20000 times that he won instead of lost or pushed. So insignificant as to not register. But all people focus on is they got the 'right' side of the line 500 times. But it didnt matter 485 of those times.

To most people all this doesnt matter. All the theory and make believe stuff goes out the window when you bet, especially if youre in Vegas. If youre in town you bet whatever number is at whatever casino you are in whenever you place the bet. The line might be -5. it might have been -3.5 2 days ago and still -4 up the street, but you bet -5 because it is the number where you are now. And that is how it is with just about everyone. The online version of this is seeing a dozen books (you cant play at) with -4 and the 3 books you have an account at have numbers ranging from -5 to -6. You cant bet the 4 so you take the 5 because it is the best option available. Now does it matter? Like I said probably not in the long run, but if that game does come in with a 21-17 score it will matter to you then thats for sure. But in the long term it is just a bad beat. But you also tok a number you knew wasnt the best out of necessity or convenience. So worrying about all the strict 'rules' all the sharp guys claim are irrelevant anyway because you cant follow them anyway. The 'best' option would have been to take +6. And the next best option would have been to not play the game at all. But most people, especially coin flipper types dont think that way. Which goes to my original points.

[Winner_13]

lol guys lets get back on topic here

[FourLengthsClear]

lol guys lets get back on topic here

The issue you raised really comes down to relatively small markets being manipulated. That indicates that the process of price discovery is open to exploitation but in itself does not really say anything about market efficiency or the effect of that exploitation on the closing line.

[Winner_13]

point is:
different kinds of winning bettors
1- ppl that chase steam, bonus whore( fishhead example) do not cap thier own games, not that its a bad thing i am in this category 90% of the time

2- ppl that have a winning model can beat closing line and win 53-54% of time

3- the elitist some1 such as billy walters that wins at higher rate the # he has might be worse than the closing line # but doesn't matter much to him as got his desired amount down and at the # that had value

he does this because people could reverse engineer his picks like they did with dr.bob etc if we all bet the same thing there wouldnt be much to bet on

so market is efficent as it usually does move to the right number however it is not efficient enough that it cant be beat.
follow?

the guy who made post prob beat closing line a couple of times and wasnt satisfied with results...he is following winning bettors but not at the clip of some1 like walters and which makes it harder is he is not beting 1,2,3 units his scale is 10,000-4 million on a game

[podonne]

There is a winner and a loser on every game in spread based sports. And before you start talking about pushes. In over 100K games in the NFL, NBA, NCAA hoops and football, with 200K+ betting options (and thats just full game sides and totals and not half time stuff) there have been less than 100 times when you absolutely could not (in the dozen or so books I can datamine) find a line that wouldnt have been a winner. So beating anything is irrelevant, having the ability more often than not to have the right side matters most. Which is an ability not many people have, at least not consistently enough.
...
You cant bet the 4 so you take the 5 because it is the best option available. Now does it matter? Like I said probably not in the long run, but if that game does come in with a 21-17 score it will matter to you then thats for sure. But in the long term it is just a bad beat. But you also tok a number you knew wasnt the best out of necessity or convenience. So worrying about all the strict 'rules' all the sharp guys claim are irrelevant anyway because you cant follow them anyway. The 'best' option would have been to take +6. And the next best option would have been to not play the game at all. But most people, especially coin flipper types dont think that way. Which goes to my original points.

Some good points here. I think the point us "BTCL is not a panecea" guys are taking, simply, is that beating the closing line does not automatically make you a winner. It can make a winner into a bigger winner, and a marginal guy into a slight winner, but it does not just automatically make everybody that BTCL a winner.

Consistently beating the closing line means you are good at consistently beating the closing line. That's it. Some sucessful players BTCL, some sucessful players don't BTCL, some money-losers BTCL, some don't.

[ManBearPig]

I'm not sure who or where I saw this but I read something one time that went along the lines of..."pros don't necessarily bet the most money or pick the right side always, but you can be dam sure they got the best line"...or something to the effect.

Whether they're BTCL or not I don't know, but if you get the best line possible for your side then you'll probably do alright...provided you can pick games at a decent clip.

[wantitall4moi]

The typical idiots on here who dont know shit and talk the loudest with zero points to back their little icons up. I would bet any amount of money I have in my pocket at any given time that I could offer any of them a line on a game that was better than where they were (but worse than someone could get with some effort), and they would take that bet 99% of the time. For example sitting at Stations and offer them -5 on GB when theyre -6 on the board. They would take that bet in heartbeat. But with a quick check they would see that GB was -4.5 at 3 or 4 other joints. But they would claim the point they were getting from me was worth more than the half point somewhere else.

here is what beating the closing line means, youre good at predicting what way steam is going to go. At least in the games you personally beat the closing number in a game you bet. that has ZERO relationship of whether you lose or not.

Again this is tout driven bullshit, as I see more and more touts using the average amount they beat the closing line by to help sell themselves as even more of an expert than they already claim to be.

beating the closing line doesnt mean shit in regards to how much youre going to win or lose. no matter how much people want to claim it does.

[choo]

people could reverse engineer his picks like they did with dr.bo

are we sure this really happened? maybe he just sucks vs todays market

[Inspirited]

wantitall4moi said what?

[chunk]

wantitall4moi said what?

I understand that it's the standard in here to pound on this guy, but 90% of the time, he is giving much better advice and insight than 90% of the guys in here. Especially these college kids that just got out of their statistics and quantitative analysis classes.

[suicidekings]

i understand that it's the standard in here to pound on this guy, but 90% of the time, he is giving much better advice and insight than 90% of the guys in here. Especially these college kids that just got out of their statistics and quantitative analysis classes.

True story. The major element that's missing from the arguments many have given (although mentioned by a few) is that picking winners matters more than finding value to those that don't have the bankroll, time, or experience to play a high volume of games across a range of sports, nor does it matter as much to those playing parlays heavily.

[MonkeyF0cker]

The typical idiots on here who dont know shit and talk the loudest with zero points to back their little icons up. I would bet any amount of money I have in my pocket at any given time that I could offer any of them a line on a game that was better than where they were (but worse than someone could get with some effort), and they would take that bet 99% of the time. For example sitting at Stations and offer them -5 on GB when theyre -6 on the board. They would take that bet in heartbeat. But with a quick check they would see that GB was -4.5 at 3 or 4 other joints. But they would claim the point they were getting from me was worth more than the half point somewhere else.

here is what beating the closing line means, youre good at predicting what way steam is going to go. At least in the games you personally beat the closing number in a game you bet. that has ZERO relationship of whether you lose or not.

Again this is tout driven bullshit, as I see more and more touts using the average amount they beat the closing line by to help sell themselves as even more of an expert than they already claim to be.

beating the closing line doesnt mean shit in regards to how much youre going to win or lose. no matter how much people want to claim it does.

Too easy. I shouldn't.

[Koldazzice]

(FOR FOOTBALL) Beating the closing line is absolutely essential if the line is on a key number. If I handicap a game and think the line should be 3.5 for team A and team A is -2. Betting early and getting that game before it moves to 3 is absolutely essential to being profitable in my opinion. Understanding the public and which way the line will move is absolutely necessary. Lets say your wrong and don't beat the number and it goes to pick? Well with the 2 point conversion understanding key numbers 3,7,10,14 and sub key numbers 4,6,11,13 can absolutely make a difference. I would rather take my chances getting team A at -2 cause if it moves to pick its no real loss but if I wait and it goes to 3 there is no value.
If I get the chargers at 2.5 -107 which I did this week and it goes to 3.5 and I have a free shot 3 playing the middle you better believe I will. Now do I think the chargers should be favored at all? NO but understanding on a monday night game the game could clearly get to 3.5 giving me a great middle.

So yes BTCL can be meaningless (9 to 7.5) in most outcomes, but understanding key numbers and public perception can give you a great edge/value when getting down your wager early.

Another example I like OSU this week - found it at +4 and hammered OK +4 (knowing this line will tighten before kick off) If the line gets to 3 which it is now in many books, if it gets to 2.5? which it could now I can play for a middle or better yet place a double wager on Okla ST -2.5. Now I have 2000 on okla st -2.5 (my original side) and 1000 on OK +4. I'm sure no one would hate having that bet.

but lets say that line moved from 4 to 5 or 5.5? do I really care I lost that 5/5.5 and instead got 4? well of course its not great but is 5 really much of a possible outcome? With 2 point conversions? even if I team gets up by 4 they wont kick the 1 to be up 5 they will go for 2 to be up 6.

So in summary if you BTCL around a key number its very important in football.

[Inkwell77]

Again this is tout driven bullshit, as I see more and more touts using the average amount they beat the closing line by to help sell themselves as even more of an expert than they already claim to be.

beating the closing line doesnt mean shit in regards to how much youre going to win or lose. no matter how much people want to claim it does.

Truth! This wantitall dude is pretty legit. I think some of these stats dudes (thinktank jokers) have not actually gambled enough or been to vegas enough.

Right Angle Sports touts this shiz all the time. It's way dumb. I don't give a fukk if you beat the closing line. All anyone cares about is if you won the bet. The way this tout writes it's as if beating the closing line is as important as profited units

[durito]

are we sure this really happened? maybe he just sucks vs todays market

it happened. and he sucks vs todays market

[allin1]

Considering that Justin7 has a book on mathematical approach on betting, he has experience with Pinnaclesports, and bets for a living, I would consider the ideas he posts on the forum worth studying.

Regarding the direction of this discussion I think it would be nice to keep insults aside. We can discuss, debate like grown men without offending directly anyone.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Considering that Justin7 has a book on mathematical approach on betting, he has experience with Pinnaclesports, and bets for a living, I would consider the ideas he posts on the forum worth studying.

Regarding the direction of this discussion I think it would be nice to keep insults aside. We can discuss, debate like grown men without offending directly anyone.

LOL.

[antifoil]

i think it would be more than 15 times. i have won against my locals soft line at least 20 percent of the best i make where the closing line has lost.

i only play off a key number though.

[Winner_13]

had +14 on georgia, +3 on texas +20 idaho cfb saturday dec. 3

all beat closer by 2.5 points and key #s all lost

[jgilmartin]

had +14 on georgia, +3 on texas +20 idaho cfb saturday dec. 3

all beat closer by 2.5 points and key #s all lost

It is relatively easy to come to almost any conclusion if you consider 3 to be an acceptable sample size.

[Winner_13]

im not jumping to any conclusions.