[LVHerbie]

Yesterday I found a prop that was significantly differently priced then the exact same prop offered at The Greek... The event was about to happen so I didn't have time to even attempt to analysis what the correct odds were (but clearly at least one was off) so I was curious (given the limits, that props aren't always going to be as accurately priced even the sharper books) what estimated edge (assuming some percentage of the time that the sharper book has incorrectly priced their props) it would take to get you to blindly bet based on this perceived mispricing...

[tomcowley]

Arb it obv. No brain, all gain.

[JustinBieber]

If you were to blindly bet any event you didnt know about and had a 50% chance of getting it right then you would lose to juice. Fwiw the last time I looked at the sharpest books props - pinnacle in the NBA playoffs they were way off.

[Dark Horse]

Blindly betting 'no score in first 7:30 minutes' for all NFL games could be profitable, just because the odds are so inflated towards the early score. I may look into this some more. It would definitely have won last Sunday. Problem is access to the old lines.

[LVHerbie]

Arb it obv. No brain, all gain.

Wasn't an option given I'm not currently funded at the greek...

[LVHerbie]

Blindly betting 'no score in first 7:30 minutes' for all NFL games could be profitable, just because the odds are so inflated towards the early score. I may look into this some more. It would definitely have won last Sunday. Problem is access to the old lines.

In this case I didn't have time to do any anaylsis... I'll make up some numbers... Say you found a prop at book A that was 40 cents off the no vig line (say +100 true line and +140 at Book A to keep it simply) at a book considered sharp (say bookmaker, pinny, or thegreek)... Bet it blindly or pass? At what numbers are you willing to bet blindly and what units are you going to put down?

[LegitBet]

Try pulling up the lines at 5dimes, thegreek, and bodog.
You will quickly see what prop side is to pricey on where some value may be.
For example bodog always has an expensive No for will there be score in the first inning. You can take the yes as a pure value play.

[Dark Horse]

In this case I didn't have time to do any anaylsis... I'll make up some numbers... Say you found a prop at book A that was 40 cents off the no vig line (say +100 true line and +140 at Book A to keep it simply) at a book considered sharp (say bookmaker, pinny, or thegreek)... Bet it blindly or pass? At what numbers are you willing to bet blindly and what units are you going to put down?

The lines for the early score (first 7:30) are often in the -145 to -175 range.

Betting props blindly would mean to bet all the no-early scores, without considering anything else. Otherwise, it's no longer blind. (not that it would have to be. lol)

Let me go over last week (week 4) in the NFL. For now, I'm guestimating an average line of +110 to +125 for the NO-Score. Regardlessly, there is no question that a 50% winning ratio is profitable. (for the record, I had the IND and PHI games capped for an early score, but passed because of the ridiculous odds; I then briefly considered the blind strategy of betting all no-early scores)

NYJ @ BUF - TD with 10:42 left in 1Q - LOSS
BAL @ PIT - TD with 2:08 left in 1Q - WIN
SEA @ STL - TD with 5:49 left in 1Q - WIN
SF @ ATL - TD with 5:57 left in 1Q - WIN
CIN @ CLE - FG with 2:28 left in 1Q - WIN
DEN @ TEN - no score in 1Q - WIN
CAR @ NO - no score in 1Q - WIN
DET @ GB - TD with 12:40 left in 1Q - LOSS
HOU @ OAK - TD with 10:06 left in 1Q - LOSS
IND @ JAX - TD with 8:37 left in 1Q - LOSS
WAS @ PHI - TD with 12:03 left in 1Q - LOSS
ARI @ SD - TD with 4:45 in 1Q - WIN
CHI @ NYG - FG with 3:29 left in 1Q - WIN
NE @ MIA - TD with 5:48 left in 1Q - WIN

9-5 in favor of the NO early score. I'm sure this is not characteristic, but it's enough to start looking a little deeper.

[Dark Horse]

first four weeks this season, the no-score for first 7:30 min:
week 1: 8-8
week 2: 6-10
week 3: 8-8
week 4: 9-5
total: 31-31
If that is representative, the line should be -115 for the score and no-score. So either it is not representative, or the lines are way off.

[Peregrine Stoop]

first four weeks this season, the no-score for first 7:30 min: week 1: 8-8 week 2: 6-10 week 3: 8-8 week 4: 9-5 total: 31-31 If that is representative, the line should be -115 for the score and no-score. So either it is not representative, or the lines are way off.

I think you should go back a few seasons

[Jaug]

If you have surebet value, try to make an analysis of which book is sharper. Factors include limits, history, size, number of props offered.

[Dark Horse]

I think you should go back a few seasons

Clearly. Just doubled sample with first four weeks last season: 30-32.
There are fluctuations worth studying and teams perhaps better avoided, but that's 61-63. I'm intrigued enough to look further, behind the scenes.

[lumpy19]

The prop market is small, I wouldn't assume that the lines at the greek are all that sharp. I think the props at thegreek are actually some of the easiest lines to pick off. Judging by the fact that they cut my limits on props they seem to agree with me. You can also use the fact that greek used to have $500 limits on their props, then $300, and now they're down to $200.

[Peregrine Stoop]

if you want to just go blindly, why not play for arbs and middles?

[durito]

Nobody should be betting props at the greek. At least not in the right direction.

[Poogs]

Dark horse, I'd be interested into looking that prop further with you. I have access to a book that I can bet more on props than most other books, pm me if you wanna really get into this

[Dark Horse]

I don't have the desired sample size yet. I'd like to have at least 1000 games.

[Poogs]

Are you looking for historical lines or the time of the first score?

[Dark Horse]

Going over time of first score for each game, noting time and if it was TD or FG, along with totals for each game. I want four or five seasons in the books, recorded on a week to week basis (weeks 1 to 16 for each season). Perhaps also categorized by teams, and by yardage (passing and/or rushing). It's just a recording hassle. I have to set aside half a day to get it done, but too busy right now.