[JayTrotter]

I was wondering about this.

I bet on miami +1 on MNF, and at half time I went to the sportsbook, and put money on Patriots pick em 2nd half, because I knew I was dead wrong on Chad Henne.

I know there are a lot of modelers in here, and well trained Statisticians. My question is this, If I have a side, and can change it at half time... i.e. the 2nd Half line would allow for me to basically take the same line as before the game, is there any advantage to blindly changing the bet??

Also, on MNF I could had positions in Miami +1, and New England +1.. is this mathematically worth it??

[Pokerjoe]

The bet's EVs are independent. If your bet on the Patriots 2ndH was wise, it had nothing to do with your initial opinion on Miami, it was because you correctly evaluated Henne's play. That may have been a sharp view, but it was also a view independent or your pregame bet.

As to your Q about being +1 on both sides, if you could do that with two HT bets, great. But I think you're asking if being pregame +1 on one side and HT +1 on the other is "mathematically worth it", see my above paragraph. They are independent wagers, and their EV must be independently appraised.

Blindly changing sides at HT, when possible, may look good, but it's an illusion (and really, just a juicer; that is, a way for books to grind juice out of you; churn, after all, being the book's best friend).

Changing sides at the half "when you can" looks good because "when you can" means you were on the right side in the first half. It's called hedging, and yes, when you have the right side of the first half on a whole game bet, you are +EV on the whole game bet, and you can sell that EV at HT. But that doesn't mean it's +EV to sell your EV.

[JayTrotter]

In the case of middles, you would only have to win about 1 out of 20 to make money, I guess my question is this, mathematically speaking, is it a +EV bet if you find yourself in a spot to middle at half time, The UAB/UCF game being a prime example of this.

I had UCF full game -11, at half I could take UAB +6, essentially having UCF -11, and UAB +27.. I believe that 2nd halfs usually end tied, on a long term view.. because the team in the lead's priority is stopping the clock, that last second TD by the losing team comes often, Now if I were to blindly hedge when I could, is that another illusion. Selecting hedges on NBA totals was really something last year in the NBA! and some of the live betting would cause very stupidly large spreads, after a hot start in one of the Lakers/Suns games you could get the under of like 235.5, and the line was 211/212.. a 20+ point spread!

I know that evaluation is the key. I am just wondering if this is one of those rare occasions where you make money blindly following the strategy, because you would realistically be betting the juice to win 1 or 2 bets.

[Dark Horse]

Since the title is 'from a trading perspective', and since you mentioned that you realized you were wrong (for whatever reason, in this case Henne), this is pretty standard in the fast world of trading, and a huge advantage: when you realize that you were wrong, and still can get out of your position without a loss, get out asap. Don't think about making a profit. Get the hell out. You were wrong, and won't pay for it. Count your blessings.

[tomcowley]

In the case of middles, you would only have to win about 1 out of 20 to make money, I guess my question is this, mathematically speaking, is it a +EV bet if you find yourself in a spot to middle at half time, The UAB/UCF game being a prime example of this.

Your question is incoherent (shockingly). As was already explained, the EV of making a halftime bet is completely independent of whether or not you've ever been laid, whether or not you took the SAT, whether or not you scored above 600 on the SAT if you took it, whether or not you could pass the reading comprehension section of a GED exam, and of any other bet you've ever made.

[Wrecktangle]

This is a Bayesian question, you now have an updated information state at the half (updated prior), and you've realized your initial view has a strong probability of being wrong with the info gathered during the 1st half. As DH states, get out and count blessings.

However, be careful your present 20-20 review of the situation after the game has not colored your real information state at halftime. Frequently, feelings about player expected performance falls into this category as coaches in the pros are better at adjustments during the game than in college football.