Is the third level of SBR trivia -EV?

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  • HedgeHog
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 09-11-07
    • 10128

    #1
    Is the third level of SBR trivia -EV?
    Almost all of us play the SBR trivia contest: complete level 1 and get +10 points, complete level 2 and net +50 points and get all 3 levels right for +125 points. Since you're risking what you've won in the previous rounds, is it worth attempting level 3? You're risking 50 pts vs an additional 75 pts on a multiple choice question--seems like a bad bet in all. Personally I quit at 50 each time. What's your strategy on this contest?

    PS I know this isn't high finance, just curious as to how the Think Tank members approach the Trivia Game.
  • yisman
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 09-01-08
    • 75682

    #2
    Depends on how good you are at trivia.

    Most here would get the third question correct less than 40% of the time.

    It's a +150 bet. If you think you can top 40%, then go for it.
    [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
    [/quote]

    [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
    Comment
    • Peregrine Stoop
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-23-09
      • 869

      #3
      weird, sometimes the 3rd question is easier. don't have a good sample yet to know for sure.
      Comment
      • Peregrine Stoop
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 10-23-09
        • 869

        #4
        also, if you can manage to eliminate just 2 obviously incorrect answers, it's a +EV point flippament
        Comment
        • Peeig
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 02-06-08
          • 567

          #5
          fwiw, i usually stop at fitty puntoz alzzo
          Comment
          • Tackleberry
            SBR Sharp
            • 12-01-10
            • 441

            #6
            Obviously it depends on how likely you are to be able to answer the question correctly or as Peregrine mentioned how confident you are that you can at least turn the question into a situation where you have a 50% chance of getting it correct versus the 25% that even a blind monkey has. For me personally I have always thought it to be -EV and never go past question 2.
            Comment
            • wrongturn
              SBR MVP
              • 06-06-06
              • 2228

              #7
              I hope they have 5th choice: Surrender (return half back).
              Comment
              • HeeeHAWWWW
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 06-13-08
                • 5487

                #8
                Sometimes the 3rd question moves away from American sports - makes it more difficult for USians, but usually easier for me :-)
                Comment
                • TomG
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 10-29-07
                  • 500

                  #9
                  can we start a study thread where people post the questions and answers?
                  Comment
                  • Peregrine Stoop
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 10-23-09
                    • 869

                    #10
                    so, if we start from random guessing, which will be right 25% of the time, what % of the time do you need to know the 3rd question answer to take the bet.

                    x*100% + (1-x)*25% > 40%
                    3/4x > 15%
                    x > 20%

                    So, if you know it 1 in 5 times, you should go for it.

                    This excludes the times you can eliminate an option or two, which would mean you need to know the answer even less.
                    My guess is many of you are not going for it enough and/or bad at rolling dice.
                    Comment
                    • The Sensei
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 12-31-10
                      • 200

                      #11
                      what if we never even make it to the third question haha
                      Comment
                      • That Foreign Guy
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 07-18-10
                        • 432

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop
                        so, if we start from random guessing, which will be right 25% of the time, what % of the time do you need to know the 3rd question answer to take the bet. x*100% + (1-x)*25% > 40% 3/4x > 15% x > 20% So, if you know it 1 in 5 times, you should go for it. This excludes the times you can eliminate an option or two, which would mean you need to know the answer even less. My guess is many of you are not going for it enough and/or bad at rolling dice.
                        It also excludes the number of times you have a false positive (you think you know but you are wrong).
                        Comment
                        • HedgeHog
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 09-11-07
                          • 10128

                          #13
                          Originally posted by yisman
                          Depends on how good you are at trivia.

                          Most here would get the third question correct less than 40% of the time.

                          It's a +150 bet. If you think you can top 40%, then go for it.
                          That's my thinking, too. However, it looks like you've done very well in the trivia game, hitting the" trifecta" several times. Congrats.
                          Comment
                          • yisman
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 09-01-08
                            • 75682

                            #14
                            I hit it about 65-70% of the time, so it's +EV for me.
                            [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                            [/quote]

                            [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                            Comment
                            • Peregrine Stoop
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 10-23-09
                              • 869

                              #15
                              Ken Jennings up in da house!
                              Comment
                              • HedgeHog
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 09-11-07
                                • 10128

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop
                                Ken Jennings up in da house!
                                I'll take minutia for $1000, Alex.
                                Comment
                                • Sawyer
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 06-01-09
                                  • 7720

                                  #17
                                  Level 2 is +EV but Level 3 is not.
                                  Comment
                                  • Peeig
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 02-06-08
                                    • 567

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop
                                    so, if we start from random guessing, which will be right 25% of the time, what % of the time do you need to know the 3rd question answer to take the bet.

                                    x*100% + (1-x)*25% > 40%
                                    3/4x > 15%
                                    x > 20%

                                    So, if you know it 1 in 5 times, you should go for it.

                                    This excludes the times you can eliminate an option or two, which would mean you need to know the answer even less.
                                    My guess is many of you are not going for it enough and/or bad at rolling dice.
                                    I went for Question 3 today and was able to eliminate one answer, I am starting to think maybe question 3 is +EV.
                                    Comment
                                    • Peregrine Stoop
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 10-23-09
                                      • 869

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Peeig
                                      I went for Question 3 today and was able to eliminate one answer, I am starting to think maybe question 3 is +EV.
                                      was it about Ashton Kutcher?
                                      Comment
                                      • Ruifgalmeida
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 04-23-08
                                        • 2024

                                        #20
                                        I am not American so I struggle a little bit with the questions so normally I hit 10points and run
                                        Comment
                                        • Kaabee
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-21-06
                                          • 2482

                                          #21
                                          whether you think it's ethical or not, googling skill is a huge factor
                                          Comment
                                          • HedgeHog
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 09-11-07
                                            • 10128

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Kaabee
                                            whether you think it's ethical or not, googling skill is a huge factor
                                            Googling is legit IMO, but 20 seconds is not much time to read the question, google and then enter the answer. You risk getting locked out w/o attempting an educated guess.
                                            Comment
                                            • Sawyer
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 06-01-09
                                              • 7720

                                              #23
                                              I wish I could google..but time limit prevents it
                                              Comment
                                              • Kaabee
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-21-06
                                                • 2482

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Sawyer
                                                I wish I could google..but time limit prevents it
                                                just gotta type quick and know how to phrase the query. i'm decent but i'm sure there are people who can get a large percentage with it.
                                                Comment
                                                • samdapatriotsfan
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 10-10-08
                                                  • 1585

                                                  #25
                                                  I have never considered the Google thing, probably because I usually stop at question 2. I have gone for the 3rd question 5 times and only answered it correctly once.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • EasyHustlin
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 07-15-10
                                                    • 633

                                                    #26
                                                    Trivia has been burying me lately.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Fishhead
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 08-11-05
                                                      • 40179

                                                      #27
                                                      -0054
                                                      Comment
                                                      • WendysRox
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 07-22-10
                                                        • 184

                                                        #28
                                                        Speaking of the trivia... today my #2 question was, "How is the #1 Div I-A team determined? 1)something 2)playoff 3)poll" I just assumed they were asking about NCAA football and chose correctly. But, it would have been nice if the question mentioned a league. It could have been Mongolian cricket for all I knew. Then again, maybe knowing what Div I-A is is part of the trivia.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • roasthawg
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 11-09-07
                                                          • 2990

                                                          #29
                                                          Where do I go to play the contest?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Dark Horse
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 12-14-05
                                                            • 13764

                                                            #30
                                                            10*50 = 4*125

                                                            40% break even point.
                                                            Comment
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