1. 10-04-10 04:13 PM #1
    LVHerbie
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    Need help calculating no-vig lines with three outcomes...

    I'm working on a spreadsheet and was wondering if someone verify my numbers here or point to a online calculator where I can verify results...

    Three outcomes: +170, +175, +150
    % with vig: 37.04, 36.36, 40
    Overround: 113.4
    % with no vig: 32.66, 32.06, 35.27
    No Vig Price: +206.18, +206.18, +183.53
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  2. 10-04-10 05:33 PM #2
    Data
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    Quote Originally Posted by LVHerbie View Post
    No Vig Price: +206.18, +211.92, +183.53
    Typo corrected.
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  3. 10-04-10 10:07 PM #3
    Pokerjoe
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    If that's soccer 3-way betting, you should study the frequencies of the actual results re the various odds. You'll find that more of the juice is placed in the favorite's line, generally, but also that bookies fear draws, especially in certain leagues. Assuming that the juice is evenly distributed among the 3 offers isn't optimal.

    Also, you might find it easier to just work with euro-style odds quotes.
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  4. 10-04-10 10:26 PM #4
    LVHerbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Data View Post
    Typo corrected.
    Thanks... Input error on my part...
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  5. 10-04-10 10:48 PM #5
    byronbb
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    Use this.
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  6. 10-04-10 10:57 PM #6
    LVHerbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pokerjoe View Post
    If that's soccer 3-way betting, you should study the frequencies of the actual results re the various odds. You'll find that more of the juice is placed in the favorite's line, generally, but also that bookies fear draws, especially in certain leagues. Assuming that the juice is evenly distributed among the 3 offers isn't optimal.

    Also, you might find it easier to just work with euro-style odds quotes.
    Actually those numbers were from something situational I found tonight outside of soccer but trying to derive fair three-way pricing in that sport was what actually got me looking at three way betting originally...

    Currently my knowledge of soccer betting is almost zero so, while I anticipated that lines might be slanted towards the favorite, I don't understand why books would "fear draws"...
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  7. 10-04-10 11:04 PM #7
    LVHerbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by byronbb View Post
    Use this.
    Thanks... I'm actually (probably unnecessarily) trying to "reinvent the wheel" but these will be useful for verifying my results...
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  8. 10-05-10 01:05 AM #8
    masontnk
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    This type of stuff is really confusing. There is so much math that has to be done
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  9. 10-05-10 04:50 AM #9
    That Foreign Guy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pokerjoe View Post
    Also, you might find it easier to just work with euro-style odds quotes.
    Yeah, it removes an unnecessary step from all your calculations.

    Next we will convince you about using the metric system
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  10. 10-05-10 11:52 AM #10
    CHUBNUT
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pokerjoe View Post
    If that's soccer 3-way betting, you should study the frequencies of the actual results re the various odds. You'll find that more of the juice is placed in the favorite's line, generally, but also that bookies fear draws, especially in certain leagues. Assuming that the juice is evenly distributed among the 3 offers isn't optimal.

    Also, you might find it easier to just work with euro-style odds quotes.
    Strangely, European Books are more competitive with the draw odds knowing they have a built in safety net of larger vig and the fact that the draw odds are not indicative of the amount bet. Offshore and Asian Books get more action on what is called the Asian Handicap where the draw is part of one side of the outcome. Generally, as the draw odds are dictated by the strength of the cash for the Two teams, books have half their vig on the favorite the other half on the dog and the draw.
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  11. 10-05-10 12:03 PM #11
    CHUBNUT
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    Pokerjoe,
    By the way, I only quoted you as it was related to my post. I'm in no way challenging your take and let me take this opportunity to congratulate you on the many fine posts you make.
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  12. 10-05-10 03:30 PM #12
    Pokerjoe
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHUBNUT View Post
    Pokerjoe,
    By the way, I only quoted you as it was related to my post. I'm in no way challenging your take and let me take this opportunity to congratulate you on the many fine posts you make.
    TY, and no problem.

    About the draw, that was an observation I made several years ago about suspect leagues. And I do remember an email exchange with an experienced British bookie wherein he said that, back in the pre-AH days (and AH really hasn't been popular very long), so many people manufactured DNB and +1/2 bets off the 3-way lines that draw prices were deflated to take advantage of that.

    But for the most part, most of the juice is on the faves, by far, because Euro books figure parlays by straight up multiplication (as opposed to US books who only do that for baseball). As such, because so much betting action involves parlayed (accumulator) favorites, books put the juice there.

    I seem to remember some research to the effect that long-term betting on big dogs was much less a losing play than any other wager (almost breakeven, vs the lowest priced faves).

    But this is a question best settled by research, not debate or guesswork, and I no longer have the DB for it.
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  13. 10-05-10 05:30 PM #13
    goblue12
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    I got +206.18 / +211.85 / +183.50
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  14. 10-05-10 09:14 PM #14
    Flight
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    LVHerbie,

    Your method seems logical. I think it can expand out to any number of options, such as different combinations on a series win (3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3).

    Heuristically:
    1) convert odds to probability
    2) calculate overround
    3) divide probability by overround
    4) switch back to original odds format

    Thanks for getting my own gears turning on this.
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