Which game is most likely to be informative, by halftime, about who will eventually win.
A low scoring game with a team favored by 3 points, 7points?
A game where there is a huge dog?
I like the huge dog option. I feel by halftime you have a good idea of whether the Colts are going to cover 14 points or not against the Bills, whereas the 3 point games are often quite close at halftime.
I think the bigger the spread, the higher the probability of the better team having a lack of motivation in either half resulting in higher variance making 1H results the lesser predictors. This hypothesis can be easily checked against a database that I do not posses due to my lack of interest in betting NFL.
Last edited by Data; 10-02-10 at 02:45 PM.
Reason: ESL